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All about Tech & Dividends. Sometimes about Short Sellers & Short Squeezers. Boring investing mixed with some spices!
Switzerland
Joined August 2021
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Tech & Dividends retweeted
Agreed. Zurich is becoming a VICTIM of its own success — and the political class is only beginning to notice. So what, they say.
Cembra to Baden. Vontobel to Baar. More than 2000 headquarters jobs moving out of the city, along with legal seats and tax revenue. ✅
They cite modern campuses, energy efficiency and hybrid work. Fine. But firms have choices. Cembra looked in Zurich and chose to cross the cantonal border. Vontobel chose Zug. Capital is lots more honest than press releases.✅
High taxes, scarce adaptable office space, slow planning and a political class that treats profitable firms as a permanent source of funding: that is a serious location problem.🔥
The same complacency is visible in Bern. The Federal Council sells “stability” in the 2028 EU package — an INSTITUTIONAL lock-in, with DYNAMIC RULE alignment presented as partnership.🤦🏼
Like FROGS in slowly warming water, we are told not to worry because everything still feels comfortable. 😳
But Nassim Taleb had it right: perceived stability breeds instability.
Switzerland’s real strength is not managed stability. It is robustness, resilience and optionality. We weaken all three when success is treated as permanent and mobility as irrelevant.🔥
The bank exits are not a side story. They are the visible crack. Well done Swiss Hodler 👍
The left-green City of Zurich is starting to pay the high price of collectivism and treating a financial hub like a cash machine. Another bank is leaving. Then another. Jobs go first. Tax base second. Prestige last.
Cembra will move its HQ from Zurich-Altstetten to Baden, Aargau, in autumn 2027. Of 800 Swiss staff, 660 go with it. Official line: modern offices, current building tech, energy efficiency, public transport, hybrid work. Fine. Also true: Cembra looked in Zurich and still left. The space that fit the bank was 20 km away, across the cantonal border.
Weeks earlier, Vontobel said it will move its headquarters to tax-friendly Baar, Zug, by 2030. A new campus. About 1,500 employees consolidated from seven Zurich buildings. Roughly 300 stay on the Limmat for clients. A Zurich house since 1924 becomes a Zug bank.
Together that is more than 2,000 HQ jobs leaving the city, plus the tax revenue that follows the legal seat. Cembra paid about CHF 44–45 million in company tax last year at Zurich’s rate. NZZ estimates the Baden move alone can cut that bill by around CHF 10 million a year. Vontobel has been paying more than CHF 80 million; insiders put the Zug saving in the same ballpark. Two banks. Two-digit millions. Recurring.
The banks will not say “we are fleeing the Stadtrat.” They never do. They talk campuses and culture. Capital is more honest than press releases. Effective profit tax: City of Zurich ~19.6%. Aargau ~15%. Zug under 12%. Zurich sits near the bottom of the Swiss ranking. Only Bern is worse. Firms have been voting with their feet for years: more companies leave Canton Zurich than arrive. The chamber of commerce has been warning. The Zürcher Bankenverband now calls the two bank exits a “wake-up call” and wants a self-critical look at Standortpolitik. FDP liberals already asked the government what this does to Zurich as a financial centre.
Look at who runs the city. After the March 2026 elections the executive is as left as it has ever been: 7 of 9 Stadtrat seats for SP and Greens, SP mayor. In the Gemeinderat, SP + Greens + AL hold a majority. The municipal tax multiplier has sat at 119% since 2008. Centre-right attempts to cut it keep dying in the left parliament. The same city government fought a cantonal profit-tax cut because it would “cost” Zurich revenue — as if the tax base were a captive herd. Banks and insurers already fund about half of the city’s corporate-tax take. That is the herd they are thinning.
This is not a mystery. High taxes, tight planning, scarce adaptable office space, and a political class that treats private balance sheets as a moral commons. Collectivism always starts as “fairness” and ends as a location problem. Baden and Baar are not ideological utopias. They are places that still act as if firms can leave.
Socialism has never worked as a growth model. It consumes the surplus created by people who can relocate, then acts surprised when they do.
Zurich can keep the cute slogans. Zug and Aargau will keep the headquarters.
Free markets FTW.
Tech & Dividends retweeted
Sie verspotteten die Schweizer Neutralität – bis die Rechnung kam. ✅
🇨🇭 Schweiz: Neutralität schützt Souveränität, finanzielle Stabilität und die Freiheit, über unsere Zukunft selbst zu entscheiden.
🇪🇺 Europa: Dauerkrieg, Schulden und Bürokratie schaffen keine Stärke. Strategische Zurückhaltung schon.🔥
🇺🇸 Amerika: Militärische Macht ist nicht dasselbe wie nationale Widerstandskraft. Kriege werden noch lange finanziert, nachdem der Applaus verklungen ist.🔥
Neutralität ist nicht Passivität.
Sie ist strategische Unabhängigkeit: das eigene Land verteidigen, dauerhafte Auslandskriege vermeiden und künftige Generationen nicht verschulden.🇨🇭
Macht euch darüber lustig, wenn ihr wollt. Dann vergleicht Schulden, Misstrauen – und die Rechnung.
Tech & Dividends retweeted
Michael nails Big problem! Again!
There’s another option besides hoping exponential AI growth saves the fiscal math. 🤷🏻♂️👇
The 🇨🇭 model: balance the budget over the cycle. Keep net debt in the 10–20% of GDP range. Protect the trust premium that delivers the lowest inflation and interest rates plus one of the last genuinely strong currencies.✅
No painless path exists once debt is already 100–200% of GDP. 🔥Delay just hands a bigger bill to the young. The Swiss path is politically hard everywhere else because it requires saying no in good times, not only in crises.
Nominal public debt has exploded since 2000: US +380%, Japan +430%, China +650%. Debt-to-GDP is already ugly: Japan 200%+, US heading toward 125–140%, France heading well above 120%, China crossing 100%. Global government debt is $111 trillion and growing every day. Interest spending is becoming a huge issue for these countries.
The path is unsustainable. Aging, slower productivity, and higher real rates make the math even worse.
There are only a few ways out:
1. Grow faster than interest spending and fiscal deficit. The cleanest option, but hard in aging, high-regulation, high-tax societies.
2. Run primary surpluses. Spend less than you tax, politically the hardest.
3. Inflate it away. Keep rates below inflation and force savers to hold the bonds. It destroys both wealth and the currency.
4. Default or restructure. Very costly for everyone, destroys trust.
5. Pretend and extend. The current path. Works until it doesn’t, then the adjustment is even more painful.
There is no painless option, but delay only shifts a larger bill onto the young. How will we get out of this mess?
Stocks with a historical beatdown of bonds
via @GoldmanSachs
theideafarm.com/portfolio-ma…
Tech & Dividends retweeted
They mocked Swiss neutrality—until the bill arrived. ✅
🇨🇭 Switzerland: neutrality protects sovereignty, fiscal discipline and the freedom to decide our own future.
🇪🇺 Europe: permanent war, debt and bureaucracy do not create strength. Restraint does.🔥
🇺🇸 America: military power is not the same as national resilience. Wars are financed long after the applause ends. Debt Tsunami ✅
Neutrality is not passivity.
It is strategic independence: defend your country, avoid permanent foreign wars, and do not mortgage future generations.
Mock it if you wish. Then compare the debt, the distrust—and the bill.
Tech & Dividends retweeted
French 10-year bonds are yielding the most versus German 10-year notes since 2012. That spread has now exceeded 100 basis points.
Tech & Dividends retweeted
The 10-year Swiss yield at a fraction of US, German and UK levels is the market’s own verdict that this is a trusted safe-haven people actually want to own — not a cheap funding currency like old Japan, which is precisely why the SNB has to lean against appreciation rather than invite carry.
Tech & Dividends retweeted
#France is paying the price of fiscal disbelief. Its 10y bond spread over Germany has topped 100bps for the 1st time since 2012. Yields hover around 4.5%, near an 18y high. This year’s deficit is now forecast at 5.4% of GDP, missing the 5% target. Paris still promises 3% by 2029. Bond markets want more than promises.
I said last night in response to this post that everything was technically a prediction market bc Arrow-Debreu contingent claims span the returns space. I want to correct myself. Everything is trivially a string of predictions but you couldn’t decompose a bond into a sequence of prediction contracts.
Now, in reality, very few long-lived assets are prediction markets in any meaningful sense. I appreciate where Joe’s quip might come from. There’s a pedantic sense in which his statement is right. But ultimately he’s wrong in an interesting way that lies at the heart of financial/asset pricing theory.
Joe famously likes to say that he doesn’t believe in the concept of bond “term (risk) permia” and instead believes that the returns of a bond, even a long maturity one, is simply the outcomes of a sequence of Fed short rate decisions.
Viewed this way it’s tempting to think how any Treasury bond may be simply a sequence of properly lined-up FOMC decision prediction contracts.
Except this is simply not true for exactly the reason why Joe doesn’t believe in the concept of “term permia”. There’s a name in economics for what Joe believes and it’s called the “expectations hypothesis”.
Under the “strong version” of EH, a n-year bond yield is literally the market’s forecast of the average short rate over the next n years. There should be no term permia and long term bonds should earn no excess returns over short term bills.
The expectations hypothesis has been repeatedly and resoundingly rejected in many different studies: Fama-Bliss, Shiller, Campbell-Shiller, Cochrane-Piazzesi etc. Whether it’s market-implied or survey-based, short rate expectations cannot explain long bond yields/returns.
Bond prices move way too much to be explained by plausible changes in the expectations of future short rates. Bond yields are not simply forecasts of short rates. Bond term permia exist even if they aren’t measured well! You cannot line up a daisy-chain of prediction contracts on FOMC meetings to synthetically recreate the payoffs of a bond.
Love you Joe but sorry bro.
Insightful observation. If we applied my favorite trick of “erasing” the covid years, during which a lot of unusual things happened like mass migration, we are just continuing the pre-COVID secular trend. Measured labor productivity is a tad stronger but not historically unusual.
Tech & Dividends retweeted
👇About a year ago but, even earlier for those following my perspective on EUROPEAN POLITICAL INSTABILITY causing significant change.
Today:
- 🇩🇪AfD now approaching largest party ✅
- 🇫🇷 Le Pen next in line to attempt solving its financial/immigration mess ✅
- 🇳🇴 & 🇦🇹 Right Wing parties leading by WIDE margins ✅
Brussels bureaucrats are NOT prepared for this political Tsunami that has the real potential to add to enormous POLITICAL INSTABILITY.
Replying to @philippilk @RnaudBertrand
💯 Eurocrats not only didn’t read the room. They’ve open the door to a significant change of political direction towards Right wing Populism as Europe comes to terms w/ a protracted downturn.
Tech & Dividends retweeted
Warren Buffett: "If you have to closely follow a company, you shouldn't own it."
Tech & Dividends retweeted
A sharp upward revision in Ireland lifted second-quarter Eurozone GDP growth to 0.6%, beating the preliminary 0.4% estimate and marking the fastest quarterly pace in over a year.
Ireland's notable gains were partly tempered by slower growth in France, a country in the fiscal spotlight alongside fellow G7 members Japan and the UK.
(Bloomberg charts below.)
#economy #growth #europe #eurozone #markets
Tech & Dividends retweeted
Good Morning from Germany, where the political landscape in the East has been turned upside down: the far-right AfD (whose Saxony-Anhalt branch is officially classified as extremist by domestic intelligence) more than doubled its vote share to 43.8% from 20.8% in 2021, while the CDU collapsed to 17.2% from 37.1%. The AfD fell 3 seats short of an outright majority. Now the options range from BSW tolerating an AfD minority govt, to AfD winning over individual MPs, to an unwieldy 5-party anti-AfD alliance. In a later ballot, even a simple majority could be enough to elect an AfD premier.
Tech & Dividends retweeted
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With respect,
Mav