Stocks and other musings

Joined October 2025
$FPS at $24 ✅
Wow — $FPS down nearly 40% since my exit and crushed today on CFO departure. I would absolutely buy back in here if not for wash sale rules. But this thing in the mid-20s is good value. Entire AI ecosystem has gotten hit extremely hard and opportunities are abound yet again
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Good timing on $CBRS with the $ORCL news today. The reality is that 1) more of these types of announcements are likely coming, 2) as the cybersecurity narrative ramps, it’s only logical that speed is the best deterrent, and 3) $CBRS was priced for death. Love the upside here
xitter.cf/daveblundin/status/211… xitter.cf/cryptopunk7213/status/… Just need to open your eyes … with that said … bear case would be reading through this Hacker News message board (news.ycombinator.com/item?id…) where developer sentiment on $CBRS isn’t exactly extremely positive
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$WHR now flat on a frankly pretty bonkers miss. The worst is in. Mega bear case is priced in and around perceived “housing turnaround” winners. Any ounce of an upside surprise will lead to re-rate for $SGI and others
$WHR should tell you that the worst has been priced in for housing related. Guiding to -$1.30 ‘26 EPS on prior guidance of $2.50-3.00. Insanely drastic guidance cut and stock is down whopping 5% PM. Worst was priced in; have to imagine this is trough on trough. Positive for $SGI
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$WHR should tell you that the worst has been priced in for housing related. Guiding to -$1.30 ‘26 EPS on prior guidance of $2.50-3.00. Insanely drastic guidance cut and stock is down whopping 5% PM. Worst was priced in; have to imagine this is trough on trough. Positive for $SGI
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xitter.cf/daveblundin/status/211… xitter.cf/cryptopunk7213/status/… Just need to open your eyes … with that said … bear case would be reading through this Hacker News message board (news.ycombinator.com/item?id…) where developer sentiment on $CBRS isn’t exactly extremely positive
Talk to anyone inside OpenAI and they will tell you that Sam and his top engineers use Ultraftast powered by $CBRS. People have gotten in trouble internally for abusing Ultrafast at 10x the cost. Jane St has attempted to monopolize the limited supply. Feldman screwed up on the
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Talk to anyone inside OpenAI and they will tell you that Sam and his top engineers use Ultraftast powered by $CBRS. People have gotten in trouble internally for abusing Ultrafast at 10x the cost. Jane St has attempted to monopolize the limited supply. Feldman screwed up on the
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data center side by failing to secure adequate compute and introducing this narrative around GPT-6.1 Sol using NVDA GPUs. The $CBRS product itself is fantastic and I think the share price now reflects this hiccup in the growth story. I don’t think it’s anything more than a hiccup
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I’ll be buying $CBRS tomorrow morning — 25% position ideally < $110/sh … will pair well with my large $SGI position that should have negative correlation with $CBRS over the shorter term. Of course we’re in an AI bubble — that seems obvious. But for something like $CBRS that’s
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70% off highs, that bubble has clearly popped, and the question becomes “how important is speed when it comes to mission critical cybersecurity?” I think the answer to this question is obvious, especially well below IPO price and recent takeover interest from $ARM and SoftBank.
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Wow — $FPS down nearly 40% since my exit and crushed today on CFO departure. I would absolutely buy back in here if not for wash sale rules. But this thing in the mid-20s is good value. Entire AI ecosystem has gotten hit extremely hard and opportunities are abound yet again
Out of $FPS today — entry $29.39 / exit $38.33 / return +30% Was feeling too much exposure to AI infra trade which felt irresponsible as rates keep rising. More portfolio moves likely coming today
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Anyone know why $GLAS has gotten crushed? Results were bad but not so bad to justify this price action? What’s going on?
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Long week but went about as well as it probably could have. Down 5.9% on the week, though came into the week with 100% AI Infra exposure ($FPS, $NNBR, $FTAI, $AESI) and had some well-timed trims. Had I not sold the book would have been down about 16%. As I mentioned live, most
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of my realized PnL went into $SGI at about $63. Who knows what happens with oil, but I do know that, even after this correction, AI infra still does tend to broadly be offside if rates keep rising, whereas as I think much of the industrial / real economy has been pricing this in
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for many months. I think Goldilocks case here for real economy stocks is lower than expected hyperscaler capex guides over the next few weeks. If these continue to come in higher, I think the bond market sends a more stern message.
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Hello $FTAI
Macquarie initiates $FTAI at Outperform with a $305 price target. We own FTAI.
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What an extraordinarily exciting time to be an investor. AI has created a vacuum for the rest of the market, leading to extremely attractive valuations outside of the AI ecosystem. As investors harvest AI-related PnL and look to reinvest, I expect to see upward re-ratings. I’ve
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The CEO owns >$250m of stock, recently bought another >$1m in the open market, and is fiercely competitive. This is positioned as a longer-term hold for me that I think the market wakes up to over the next 3 months. This is also a name that should be higher on AI sell-off days
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and will continue gaining market share as industry participants propped up by VC keep shutting down.
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