Tarman (@TarmanLT) header
Tarman (@TarmanLT) profile picture

Raw Meat Enthusiast, Christian Health and Stocks Daily Charts and SA Run a free Kris Q inspired Discord, message me to hang . All Opinion, not advice

Phoenix, AZ
Joined May 2009
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New Podcast! I came out of retirement for one last show I couldn't ride off into the sunset without telling you about the most amazing thing I've found Brion joins me for a dive into Rapamycin, how it has changed my health, and how it can change yours youtu.be/d8to6SotiqM
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$XYZ A nice flush to the 5MA would be buyable
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Pretty damn strong day. Any last shorts were probably blown out. The trade to take today and Friday was just to buy the open in the most beat up stocks. Shorting got run over. Long follow through was amazing today off Friday breakouts. Is this a short squeeze and we roll back over? Or is the selling done? Impossible to tell yet. I have a few longs which are working okay. Possible follow through day on Wednesday. I am still seeing a lot of complacency and anticipating a V bottom. I actually saw some FOMO today as well, which is kind of wild. The pros are saying the market still has to prove itself. So just that may be enough to keep the bid in the market, as lots listen to the pros and keep their money on the sidelines. I don't really have stocks to buy or sell at the moment. I have some relative strength stocks I am watching, but they aren't set ups yet. Some relative strength names: $MSFT $BB $SPOT $FIVE $TEM $TOST $ELF $LLY $NTSK $TSLA $OLLI $TTAN $CHYM $XYZ
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$DCTH, $VFF, and $VIR are all options for gappers that have some interesting qualities. Maybe too thin
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$MSFT Seems like this would be a good place to hide if we get further selling
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$OLLI Not a bad little pattern here in $OLLI. Will I take it? Probably not
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Here is my watchlist for tomorrow: $GE $MSFT $OLLI $TTAN $UVXY
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I would like to start looking for mean reversion longs, but I am a bit worried about this market. Korea is putting out short selling bans. People are calling for a V bottom and banks are saying this is a good time to buy. The complacency is not giving me good vibes here for longs any time soon. CTAs are also selling this week in all different tapes. We got a little pop on Friday, but the action is not healthy. Selling comes in, but as soon as it stops, they are just buying it right back. It is like they haven't learned their lesson to stop buying the dip. Not only that, but the Fed hasn't said anything. The administration hasn't said anything. No one is stepping in to forestall further selling in the AI space. Are they still raising rates in December?! Positioning hasn't changed much. Overall, dumb money is getting more long across the indexes. They did sell a bit in the Qs, and it appears they have covered their shorts in the IWM, which is a good sign I suppose. VIX curve popped back nicely Friday, but is still in the danger zone. Implied correlations are elevated and looking bullish, but they could blow out a lot more. Overall, unless you are a short seller, day trader, or love learning about markets, its a good idea to go on vacation for a couple weeks. Set up wise, I am watching a few things that are holding up well. There really isn't a whole lot to do. It seems like healthcare stocks are holding up well. Apparel stores too. But if the market heads lower, everything is going to head lower Here is my watchlist for tomorrow: $GE $MSFT $OLLI $TTAN $UVXY
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$ABNB is a decent gapper, not great but not bad
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$ARDT Very thin, but maybe a chance for an HVC tomorrow
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$GE A pop into the 200MA would be a good short spot
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$MDLN This is a bit choppy, but it has potential, and is in a good group
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Here is my watchlist for tomorrow: $ARDT $ZCSH $MDLN $PACS $CVNA $GE
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It is truly amazing the amount of tweets over the last two weeks talking about bullish seasonality, oversold semis having to bounce, just buy buy buy. But if you were TRADING, you knew that longs have sucked for months. I haven't been able to get a long to work since September. So I was short. Yesterday really messed up my short portfolio. Got stopped on $TNA and some other names that melted today. So I was about 45% short instead of %80+, and I ended the day covering a bunch and am now at %25. That is the market for ya. Everything is blown out red. Doesn't mean we can't keep falling. Violent bounces are a short for at least another few days I think as positions unwind. I probably won't even both touching a long. VIX curve is deep red. NAAIM came in today at 78, which is actually higher then last week those crazy cats. Kell cycle is breaking lower. IF you are like Ted and just starting to search for shorts, I think you'll have a bad time. I am in tactical shorts with fast covers. Set up wise, the only names holding up are medical names. I have $CVNA and $GE in there as potential shorts if they can pop tomorrow. $ARDT is a HVC play in a strong name. $MDLN is also showing some good strength and is an IPO. I like it. $ZCSH I kind of tried today and ditched when it didn't do anything. If crypto gets strength it could have some opportunity. Here is my watchlist for tomorrow: $ARDT $ZCSH $MDLN $PACS $CVNA $GE
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Tons of good gappers to choose from today, $VERX, $ONC, $APPN, $XERS, $SEZL. I am partial to $SEZL and $VERX as my top picks
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$OKTA CIBR is a weird group right now, but this is a decent set up
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$TENB Retesting old resistance here. Nice strength here
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Here is my watchlist for tomorrow: $NXPI $ZCSH $OKTA $ORCL $RBRK $TENB
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Massive rotation day. Very rare type of action where you had some stocks blasting higher and others cratering lower. Take a look at the red box in the graphic. The 20% up and down in 5 days are both over 100. You NEVER see that. VIX curve bounced massively as fear just evaporated from the market. I thought about getting short some stocks late in the day, but with Vix curve that strong, I didn't think the risk was worth it. Today was definitely a day to put on longs. I tried some $WGMI names and those flopped. Ended up with $TSLA and $XYZ. Really tough to navigate this though. Indexes jumped almost to overbought levels. Shorts got pummeled, but not certain ones, like $SKHY. My toilet paper portfolio did fantastic as $RSP and $XLP went higher. Implied correlations came way back down, but not quite in the danger zone yet. I wouldn't be surprised if we got some back and forth action here for a couple days as volatility comes down. Set up wise, really tough to pick up new trades here. Nothing is really all that tight, so you are more going for mean reversion trades. One stock with some tightness is $NXPI, maybe a pullback in that is buyable. Still watching $ORCL for a long, but its been a dog. Some ciber names look alright, $OKTA and $RBRK. Here is my watchlist for tomorrow: $NXPI $ZCSH $OKTA $ORCL $RBRK $TENB
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