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Time to update the $GDX map. 🗺️
Since our original call-out back on July 10th, the expected wave (2) retrace has played out almost exactly along our projected path. We might tag a bit more downside near-term, but with major support holding strong, we are zeroing in on the wave (3) bottom.
Bull markets test your patience. They never make it easy to hold your positions or add on sale, and your own psychology is often the biggest hurdle to building wealth.
Stay strong. The macro thesis for hard assets remains completely intact, and miners are positioned to lead the next leg up.
#gold #silver
Indeed. This is NOT 1980. Such comparisons by "experts" miss the entire macro structural shift.
In 1980, Volcker could jack rates to 20% to crush inflation because US Debt-to-GDP was ~30%. Today, with Debt-to-GDP past 120% and structural deficits at 6%+, hiking into weakness doesn't stop inflation—it accelerates debasement through interest expense.
Here are 5 pillars proving why this commodity supercycle is fundamentally different:
This is not 1980... Don't sell your gold.
Back then, US debt to GDP was ~30%, which enabled Volcker to hike rates aggressively to kill inflation.
But inflation wasn't the only thing he killed... He also plunged the US into a recession.
Today, with debt to GDP above 100% and deficits running at 6% of GDP, the US can afford neither a recession nor sustained higher rates.
In a recession, deficits blow out to 7-10% of GDP... at a time when foreign investors are increasingly unwilling to fund endless US deficits...
Forcing the Fed to let the money printer go wild.
Warsh can talk tough like Volcker, but the fiscal situation will force him to inflate the debt away...
So that a future Volcker can eventually hike rates to kill inflation.
Until that happens, we don't own enough gold for what's coming.
1. The Fiscal Trap:
A recession doesn't fix federal spending; it collapses revenues and blows deficits out toward 8–10% of GDP. The Fed cannot maintain high real rates without risking a sovereign debt crisis. Monetary expansion is the default path.
2. The Sovereign Reserve Bid:
In 1980, the rally ended when retail leverage (Hunt Bros) got margin-called. Today, the marginal buyers are central banks stacking neutral, un-freezable assets. They bought a record 288.9 tonnes of physical gold in Q2 2026 alone—adding heavily through a 14% price drop.
3. Structural Industrial Deficits:
Precious & critical metals aren't just monetary hedges anymore. Silver is sitting in its 6th consecutive annual deficit (46.3M oz shortfall in 2026), having drained over 760M oz from above-ground stockpiles. AI grid expansion, defense, and power infrastructure consume metal regardless of paper spot price.
4. Supply Inelasticity:
You cannot print physical supply. After 15+ years of underinvestment and permitting cycles stretched to 10–15 years, mine production is flat. Paper derivative markets flush, but physical scarcity remains.
5. FX Reserve Restructuring:
The freezing of foreign reserves broke the trust model of paper fiat debt. Sovereign entities are permanently rebalancing out of paper promises and into real assets.
Bruce Poole retweeted
Meanwhile…
If gold miners were a standalone sector, they would be the cheapest group in this comparison of US equities.
Roughly a 10% free cash flow yield.
No other sector shown comes close.
tavicosta.substack.com/p/sho…
This is where fortunes are built in commodity cycles.
When quality names like Cameco ($CCJ), NexGen ($NXE), and Denison ($DNN) are sitting 40% to 50%+ off their peaks despite the structural #nuclear supply deficit growing wider every month, emotional retail sellers are handing over institutional-grade entry setups.
This is the classic "Get Right and Sit Tight" phase:
🔵Fundamentals haven't changed: Tech buildouts, grid baseload demands, and nuclear reactor restarts are locking in multi-year #uranium demand that supply simply cannot fulfill.
🔵Technicals tell you HOW to enter: You don't jump in with all your capital at once. You use wave structure and technical levels to scale in systematically through the drawdowns.
🔵Capital discipline: Cyclical washouts shake out impatient daytraders so patient, long-term capital can position ahead of the next structural wave up.
When high-conviction assets get deeply oversold without a change in the core macro thesis, you don't panic. Map your risk, scale in calmly, and let time do the heavy lifting.
There isn’t a #uranium developer or producer that hasn’t taken a serious hit from its 5-year highs.
I know 90% of investors don’t want to hear this, but this could be the opportunity.
I feel for investors who are deeply underwater. I’ve been through these brutal cycles several times in my career, and you learn a few things along the way.
In my opinion, uranium equities look deeply oversold, with no single obvious reason justifying the scale of the sell-off.
Could they fall further? Of course.
But I’m taking my chances and scaling in little by little.
Not financial advice. Just my opinion.
⏳The thesis hasn't changed. It’s only a matter of time.⌛️
Hot wholesale inflation paired with falling Treasury yields and equity market jitters is the exact macro formula that pushes capital back toward real assets. Drops get bought up fast because paper markets cannot paper over structural deficits or endless sovereign debt expansion forever.
🔵Patience Over Noise: A multi-year thesis requires a long-term horizon. Expect short-term chop, volatility, and news-driven shakeouts. True conviction is knowing how to ignore the intraday noise while the structural trend plays out.
🔵The Big Picture: Central bank physical accumulation, structural deficits across critical/industrial metals, and multi-year supply underinvestment give physical assets the ultimate long-term pricing power.
#gold #macro $GLD $SLV
Gold, silver rebound as Treasury yields tumble despite hot PPI
Spot gold and silver prices are solidly higher in early U.S. trading Thursday, rebounding from Wednesday's sharp losses as falling Treasury yields, a weaker U.S. dollar and renewed safe-haven demand outweighed another upside U.S. inflation surprise. A technology-led global equity selloff pushed investors toward government bonds and bullion, even as September producer prices rose much faster than expected. At the time of writing, spot #gold was trading near $4,147.50 an ounce, up $43.00, or 1.05%, while spot #silver was trading near $56.620, up $1.10, or 1.99%.
kitco.com/news/article/2026-…
Bruce Poole retweeted
#Silver attempts to rebound after yesterday
CleanTech CTV ($CTVFF) just dropped two major releases highlighting high-grade exploration upside and heavy insider alignment.
While the market knows them for their strategic U.S. critical mineral suite, these updates show how they are unlocking precious metals optionality while keeping their capital structure tightly held:
🔵High-Grade #Gold (El Triunfo): Surface quartz sampling in Bolivia returned up to 12.9 g/t gold, alongside a conceptual starter pit model. This provides low-cost, near-term monetization potential as precious metals hover near record highs.
🔵Skin in the Game Financing: Announced a $500,000 private placement ($0.10/unit with 3-year warrants at $0.15), with management and insiders taking down up to 80% ($400,000) of the round. Heavy insider buying means management is putting real cash behind their own thesis.
🔵Fluorspar (Critical U.S. Bottleneck): Zero U.S. domestic production today. Fluorspar is non-replaceable for EV battery electrolytes, semiconductors, and converting #uranium into gas for nuclear enrichment.
🔵Vanadium (Grid Storage & Defense): Powers Vanadium Redox Flow Batteries (VRFBs) for long-duration grid storage, while providing lightweight strength for aerospace and defense alloys.
Pairing zero-substitute U.S. critical inputs like fluorspar and vanadium with high-grade gold optionality—and a management team writing checks to fund it—makes @CleanTechCTV a compelling play in this macro cycle.
📰News Release // CleanTech Vanadium Reports Up To 12.9 g/t Gold in Quartz Surface Samples and Presents a Conceptual Starter Pit at its El Triunfo Gold Project in Bolivia
💡Learn More:
cleantechctv.com/cleantech-v…
🇨🇦TSXV: $CTV.V | 🇺🇸OTCQB: $CTVFF
Ride the #Fluorspar Wave
#Fluorine #Fluorite #Vanadium #RareEarth #CriticalMinerals $NXE $CCJ
Bruce Poole retweeted
And just like a beach ball held underwater…
Gold is already back to pre-CPI levels.
Yields are rolling over. The dollar is starting to follow.
This could turn very constructive for precious metals.
tavicosta.substack.com/p/sil…
Bruce Poole retweeted
🥇 GOLD RIPS BACK ABOVE $4,160
Gold has erased the CPI selloff and is now up more than 1% in overnight Asian trade.
Get the key levels before the move. Join our Substack. → wallstreetgold.substack.com
Closing a massive $100.05 million bought deal with the over-allotment option fully exercised is a huge statement for a junior developer. When a silver-gold project like Silver Tiger's (@SilverTigerMtls) El Tigre in Sonora locks down that kind of capital in this macro environment, it tells you institutional appetite for high-grade precious metals assets is running hot.
Here is why this financing is such a major catalyst:
🔵Massive Treasury Injection: Raising over C$100 million fully funded gives them a massive runway to aggressively push construction and development at the El Tigre Stockwork Zone Project without starving for capital.
🔵Demand Oversubscription: The full exercise of the over-allotment option by a syndicate led by Stifel Canada and BMO Capital Markets proves strong institutional conviction behind the asset.
🔵Precious Metals Bull Market Tailwinds: With silver and gold prices benefiting from structural debasement and strong physical demand, well-capitalized developers in Tier-1 jurisdictions are best positioned to transition from explorers to producers.
🔵Having followed Silver Tiger ($SLVTF) for a long time, seeing them secure this kind of heavyweight institutional backing is a massive validation of the project's scale and economics.
#silver #mining $SILJ
Silver Tiger Announces Closing of C$100,050,000 Bought Deal Financing Including Full Exercise of the Over-allotment Option $SLVR.TO juniorminingnetwork.com/juni…
My philosophy often boils down to a simple rule: Fundamentals tell you WHAT, but technicals tell you WHEN.
When the macro thesis is rock solid, I'm a huge believer in "get right and sit tight." You have to be able to stomach short-term volatility and let the structural cycle do the heavy lifting without getting shaken out by intraday noise, especially in the commodities sector (gold, silver, platinum, copper, uranium, oil, et al).
Before I ever suggest a trade or entry, I stack multiple layers:
🔵Macro & Fundamentals: Confirm structural deficits, supply underinvestment, currency debasement, etc. (the WHAT).
🔵Wave Structure & Technicals: Use Elliott Wave, key moving averages, and market structure to time low-risk entries and pinpoint exactly when to trim positions and take profits (the WHEN).
🔵Capital Rotation & Patience: Trim extended runners to lock in gains and rotate capital into lagging value plays before they catch up, while letting core positions ride the multi-year trend (the HORIZON).
Fundamentals give you the conviction to hold through the chop; technicals give you the discipline to execute entries and take money off the table when risk/reward degrades.
Respect the market structure, manage risk, and trade the setup, not just the story.
#investing #macro
When evaluating the broader commodity supercycle, ignoring critical strategic metals is a huge blind spot. Upgrading to the OTCQX Best Market ($PGEZF) marks a big step forward for Stillwater Critical Minerals (@Stillwater_CM) as capital rotates heavily toward domestic supply chains.
Here is why this play deserves a spot on your watchlist outside the usual miner pipeline:
🔵Beyond Gold & Silver: Stillwater West hosts a massive multi-metal suite including Nickel, Platinum Group Elements (PGEs), Cobalt, and Chromium—metals essential for defense, industrial grid buildouts, and energy tech.
🔵Tier-1 U.S. Jurisdiction: Located directly adjacent to Sibanye-Stillwater’s active mines in Montana—the only primary PGE producing complex in the United States.
🔵Major Industry Backing: Strategic backing from global commodity giant Glencore validates both the geology and the scale of the resource.
🔵Institutional-Grade Resource: Recently updated resource estimate doubled their inferred ounces and established a maiden indicated resource—positioning it as one of the largest undeveloped polymetallic critical mineral projects in the U.S.
🔵Liquidity & Market Access: The move to OTCQX opens the door for broader U.S. institutional and retail flows just as domestic critical supply security reaches peak urgency.
Hard assets are taking back pricing power, and having secured, strategic critical minerals right inside U.S. borders fits the exact same macro thesis.
#platinum #commodities
Replying to @Stillwater_CM
@Stillwater_CM Upgrades to #OTCQX Best Market, Expanding U.S. Market Presence | @prospectornews #mining #investing #investors #juniormining #preciousmetals #commodities #gold #copper #nickel #PlatinumGroup #cobalt #chromium theprospectornews.com/stillw…
When giant institutionals like Invesco start loudly preaching real assets, you know the rotation is officially moving out of the quiet corner and into the mainstream.
The past decade was all about paper gains and hyper-valued growth, but years of underinvesting in actual extraction—paired with fragmented supply chains—are finally catching up. The physical world is taking back pricing power.
From copper for the grid to uranium for baseload #nuclear and #gold for balance sheets, hard assets aren't just a defensive hedge anymore—they're becoming the main trade of the cycle.





























