The U.S. Marine Corps plans to deploy the Navy-Marine Expeditionary Ship Interdiction System (NMESIS) to Japan's Yonaguni Island, about 110 km from Taiwan, for the first time during the Keen Sword exercise on Oct. 19–29. With a reported range of about 185 km, its Naval Strike Missiles could reach waters off northeastern Taiwan and the sea routes linking the East China Sea and the Pacific. Japan plans to deploy a Type 03 surface-to-air missile unit with a reported range of about 50 km on Yonaguni by 2030. Below is TSM’s visualization of both platforms’ range:

Taiwan's High Prosecutors' Office indicted four people on Oct. 19 over an alleged scheme to pay Taiwanese service members for leaking classified military information to Chinese contacts. Retired military police captain Yu Cheng-yu, already indicted in a separate espionage case, allegedly received cryptocurrency from the Chinese contacts between March and October 2024, converted it to cash, and deposited the proceeds into accounts held by a retired serviceman and a coast guard member. Two retired servicemen allegedly passed military intelligence to China while still serving, one of them receiving NT$884,000.

The ROCA 584th Armored Brigade has moved its M1A2T tanks to the Joint Operations Training Base in Pingtung for the Lien Yung exercise, which runs from late November into December, a military source told the Taipei Times. Taiwan's second-largest annual exercise tests joint operations among the Army, Navy, and Air Force against an invading force, and this year will include one-year conscripts. Of the 108 M1A2Ts Taiwan procured for about US$1.45 billion, 80 have been delivered to the 584th Brigade and 28 are still being tested and prepared for service.

TSM's PLA Activity Update for Oct. 12–18 is now live on Substack! This report tracks PLA air, naval, and coast guard activity around Taiwan and goes to subscribers' inboxes every week. This week, Taiwan's MND documented 53 PLA aircraft sorties, down 5.4%, while ADIZ entries rose 29.4% to 44. The PLA conducted a Joint Combat Readiness Patrol (JCRP) on Oct. 14, the fourth in 15 days, and PLAN vessel and official ship detections rose to 48 and 50, respectively. Read it here: taiwansecuritymonitor.substa…

The ROCA Hualien-Taitung Defense Command's 2nd Combined Arms Battalion conducted a readiness reconnaissance drill at a key port in its area of responsibility on Oct. 19. Troops deployed in CM21 armored personnel carriers to set up security and defensive positions around critical port facilities, and practiced combat casualty triage, treatment, and evacuation.

The ROCA Guandu Area Command's artillery battalion conducted night live-fire beach strike drills with 105mm howitzers on Oct. 19 against a simulated enemy landing, as part of a 10-day base evaluation. Gun crews moved to tactical positions and set up their howitzers within 10 minutes, then fired on the beach as observers reported impacts and the fire direction center adjusted firing data.

Taiwan's Navy has announced live-fire exercises in four sea areas in November, plus a one-day Navy exercise on Nov. 16, according to the Naval Meteorological and Oceanographic Office. The firing areas are active weekdays from Nov. 2 through Nov. 27 and on Nov. 30, three west and southwest of Taiwan and one northeast, with danger zones of 5 to 15 NM and airspace restrictions up to 25,000 ft. The Nov. 16 exercise, from 1200 to 1600 southwest of Taiwan, has a 20 NM danger zone and airspace restrictions to 6,000 ft.

Taiwan's Coast Guard Administration said 12 PRC coast guard and research vessels and four Chinese fishing boats operated in waters east, south, and southwest of Taiwan and around Dongsha on Oct. 18. The research ships Tansuo 3 and Beidiao 996 entered restricted waters east of Hualien and southwest of Eluanbi, and the research ship Haiyang Dizhi 8 interfered with a Taiwanese fishing boat southwest of Kaohsiung. At Dongsha, CGA Cijin and Taichung shadowed CCG 3301 and 3303 and drove them out of restricted waters around noon.

TSM's Weekly Arms Update for the week of Oct. 15 is now available on Substack! This week: six of Taiwan's 66 new F-16V Block 70s have cleared acceptance, Taiwan is set to receive 500 Stinger missiles and 178 launchers from the U.S. by the end of the year, and the Hai Kun completed its 25th sea trial ahead of expected year-end delivery. The update also covers the Army's cut to its artillery positioning and orientation system purchase from 61 sets to 54, the Navy's plan to buy 100 underwater self-propelled targets, and the military's new Cybersecurity Joint Defense Center. No arms sales to Taiwan were notified to Congress. Read it here: taiwansecuritymonitor.substa…

The ROCA's 10-day Lu Sheng 2 exercise is underway, with the 564th Combined Arms Brigade advancing north against the 269th Combined Arms Brigade defending in western Taiwan, according to the Military News Agency. Umpires will switch the brigades between offense and defense based on their performance. The exercise is testing the Taiwan Tactical Network and OneWeb as backup command and communications links, along with M1A2T tactics, drone reconnaissance, and obstacle belts built from steel hedgehogs, concertina wire, Jersey barriers, and HESCO barriers.

Two China Coast Guard vessels, CCG 3301 and 3303, entered the restricted waters around Taiwan-controlled Dongsha Atoll at 3:34 p.m. on Oct. 17, according to Taiwan's Coast Guard Administration. The CGA patrol ship Cijin and patrol boat PP-10032 shadowed one of the ships and broadcast warnings in Chinese and English ordering them to leave, and the standoff was still ongoing when the CGA issued its statement. The CGA said it has conducted 11 operations this year to expel CCG ships from Dongsha waters, involving 14 vessel encounters.

NCSIST and U.S. firm Kratos have completed flight testing of the Chien Feng IV drone in southern Taiwan, with all test benchmarks met. Based on the Kratos MQM-178 Firejet, the drone reaches Mach 0.7 to 0.85, has a range of 1,000 km and about two hours of endurance, and launches by rail or rocket booster without a runway, at an estimated unit cost under US$500,000. The partners plan to localize production in three phases, from NCSIST integrating mission payloads on U.S.-supplied airframes to domestic mass production, pending U.S. government approval.