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Houston @ Texas Tech The engine thinks this is about as close as it can get. As the lines have moved we have a standalone engine pick on Houston +8. I also have a small ML bet on houston that fired as well. The only real difference in the projected stat line is a slight skew toward the run and TOP for Houston. Other than that, there's not much difference between them.

3ish points short on each 🤷🏼‍♂️ hit the under though

Our read on the Pitt/Syracuse game tonight. No grade fired on the spread even though all of the models+the engine are on the Pitt side (we'd like to see the engine fire at least +3 over on the total as well), but the model model ensemble fired a C under grade and the engine agrees.

Florida State @ Alabama The models and the engine agree on both the spread and the totals with enough conviction to fire off a consensus grade, we now have Florida State covering the 20.5 as an A+ grade. 60.1% of the distribution sits on FSU's side of the line. We don't think this will be particularly close, but we do think this pick sneaks through with a 17 point margin of victory for Alabama.

Going to be posting some game analytics for the rest of the week. Starting off with LSU @ Ole Miss The engine is sitting at LSU -10.5 compared to Vegas's -3 and the total is at 60.3 compared to 59.5. All of the original models are sitting on the Ole Miss side still, but the engine REALLY liked the thrashing LSU put on Clemson, and is much more sensitive to early season inputs. We don't have a really strong read on this one given the disagreement, but it should be a fantastic game to watch.

Week 3 Picks: You may notice, there are 7 A+ grades, when to this point there haven't been any. That's because we're introducing the new engine to the picks logic. When both the existing picks infrastructure and engine agree on a spread pick the grade goes to A+. The record on those this year so far is 9-2 (82%) When they disagree, it drops off of the board. Here's to another good week!

Week 2 Results. Not a terrible week. 16-10 on spread (23-16 on the year) 5-2 on totals (11-5 on the year) 34-21 combined or 62% on the year (exluding ML plays)

Small potatoes, but this is the best needle thread of my life 😂

I guess trust the process sometimes 🤷🏼‍♂️

This one legitimately surprises me though. Michigan to pick up the home win against Oklahoma by roughly 3 points. This one kind of came out of left field, so i checked every input and 🤷‍♂️ The math makes sense. Let's see if it turns into actual football.

Really surprising result, but actually, deep down I kind of agree with this. Ohio State by 10. From the new engine.

Why does the ball look like it’s youth sized when Austin Simmons throws it?

Probably not a great time to post this as the FSU/SMU game is on, but here are the pick grades for week two. There's a note if the line has already moved enough against it to invalidate it. I hated waiting this long to get these out and there as there are quite a few where the line moved enough against them to knock them off of the board, but it was a funny week and i wanted to make sure all of the data from Sunday's games were in. Let me know if you have any questions? Different opinions are what make this fun!

Efficiency adjusted scores for all week 1 FBS-FBS games from biggest to smallest delta.

New Top 25 after week 1 sans the FSU/SMU game. Net move from pre-season to now on the right, with the biggest movers at the bottom.

Posting the bad with the good as promised. 12-11 and -7.9 roi. The record was one game under a C-heavy board's expectation — noise territory at n=23. The money loss lives in three places: two A stakes that lost (one with the market, one against it), and a moneyline slate that paid short and lost long. Totals were the quiet win: 4–3 with the best closing-line value on the card. There will be some noise early for sure, but we'll book it and learn from it.