Highly relevant! "The New Supply-Side Era: The O-Ring Meets Geopolitics" by Peter Orszag, Eric Van Nostrand, Noah Barbieri, and Layla McDermott. "For most of the postwar era, economists’ default explanation for output and inflation fluctuations was aggregate demand: variation in household consumption, business investment, the fiscal impulse, and the inventory cycle. As supply chains extended across the world and China’s role within them increased, the ease of substituting one source of supply for another made managing demand the central challenge for policymakers. The supply side of the economy seemed to recede as a source of higher-frequency macroeconomic risk. The steady, low-variance, and largely predictable expansion of productive capacity absorbed shocks; if one source for a good grew expensive or unreliable, an alternative was just a container ship away. Today, we need to update this framework and recognize the predominant role of the supply side in macroeconomic fluctuations as well as many associated puzzles in global economics. The pandemic, artificial intelligence, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, tariff shocks, China’s rare-earth export controls, and the war in the Middle East have delivered the same lesson six times in six years: supply shocks are now a dominant source of macroeconomic variance." lazard.com/news-announcement…