@SupnPablo

Supn on Polymarket. https://xitter.cf/t.co/bIc7c954ZG No pressure.

supnweather.fun
Joined September 2025
  • Tweets167
  • Following19
  • Followers48
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Supn@SupnPabloSep 2
Are you a Polymarket weather trader? tired of opening every station just to check the order book? I built a single view that scans them all and pulls out the interesting ones. one screen instead of opening 30 tabs. im gonna teach you how to use the website👇
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This is cool af
dylan
@dylanorrellOct 18
Gave my TV live @Polymarket game odds charts You really can just do things nowadays
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game is a game. supnweather.fun/predict
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Weather market shocked Polymarket again. A temperature rising in a middle of the night 🫡
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supnweather.fun scorecard has more green than my daily portofolio 🤯 and the best part? most of the stations forecast are FREE to read
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What a day at Shanghai market today..
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Shipped: our forecast bands were ~30% too wide. 69% of outcomes landed inside a range that promises 50%. A too-wide band invents probability in the tails — exactly where our worst signals lived. Now fitted from history: 32% narrower, 9.2% lower loss, on 21,551 scored forecasts.
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more replies
The fix: stop scaling our own range, start fitting the band from history. Given the forecast centre — where did the high actually land? Per station, per lead time, refit daily
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Measured on 21,551 scored forecasts: • band 32% narrower • calibration error 48% lower • band loss 9.2% lower, better on 66% of rows Same forecast: the bucket holding the answer went 29% → 54%. The tails went 15–20% → ~1%.
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i am officialy back. joining these 2 guys predicting for free 😅
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shout to whoever the person behind this user @.rainmaker and @.Boristheanimal 😅 they had been really grinding while playing in the predict game 😄 join him too supnweather.fun/predict
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what is happening in south america man? why is it so hard to forecast there
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just did what people doing lately, a motion video 👀
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GOD I MISS TORONTO LIKE THIS SINCE APRIL, AND WHEN IT CAME, I MISSED IT..
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🥲 bought only 25c bucket and sleep without reading h12 checkpoint
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yesterday's asia stations really humbled the forecast engine 😤
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New on your dashboard: every airport now gets a star rating. ★★★★★ = the forecast nails the exact high at least half the time, at the best checkpoint you can act on. ★ = don't trust it. Each star is one multiple of blind guessing. And we publish the 1-star ones too.
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i think thailand and tokyo tells us why at singapore, malaysia, philipines, and indonesia has insane amount of heat at day time
สะพายกล้องท่องโลก 📸
@ganbladeSep 26
กรุงเทพฯ ฝนตกเกิน 24 ชม.แล้ว 🌧️ เกิดและโตที่กรุงเทพ มา ไม่เคยเจอฝนตกยาวขนาดนี้มาก่อนจริงๆ ตกตั้งแต่เมื่อวานยันเช้า ยังไม่หยุดอีก 🥹
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New feature: every station now learns its own forecast bias. We score each station against what the weather actually did, then apply a small correction to its forecast. have you tried it?
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some of the result
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