Now Live: EP232: Cash Is King⚡ One of our core Super-Spiked themes since inception nearly five years ago has been the idea that companies in deeply cyclical commodity sectors should aim to have a fortress balance sheet, and that you run the business to ensure that you can not only survive but actually thrive through industry downturns. Preparation for bad times is what enables success during the bull markets. It’s what positions companies to keep pace with and beat the broader S&P 500 over the decades through all the ups and downs. From the breakup of Standard Oil in 1911, its largest surviving pieces plus Royal Dutch/Shell not only survived but thrived over the next 100 years until the end of the China/BRICs super-cycle in 2014. We are currently in an era where oil prices are around $100/bbl and refining margins are over $60/bbl and companies exposed to upstream and downstream oil commodity value chains are increasingly flush with cash. Today’s video adds a corollary to our fortress balance sheet ethos and that is “cash is king.” We have little doubt that Street analysts on upcoming 3Q2026 earnings conference calls will be querying management teams on what they will do with the cash and many will argue some large portion ought to be immediately returned to investors. If we are sticking with our pragmatic approach to energy, some of the surplus will and should go back to investors. But there are a number of arguments made about returning all or the bulk of cash back to investors that we do not agree with. The strategic value of cash, especially in a deeply cyclical commodity business, is often under appreciated by both investors and management teams. It’s not simply having a fortress balance sheet. It’s about having a degree of balance sheet strength that enables significant counter-cyclical buybacks, M&A, or CAPEX. We would argue there is no such thing as having too much cash on hand, especially given our Geopolitical Super Vol macro framing. Timestamps: 0:00 Introduction 2:42 Cash is King 9:37 Pushbacks On Retaining Cash 15:48 On A Personal Note: In Honor of Malcolm Young #SuperSpiked @SuperSpiked @ArjunNMurti

Now Live: "Big Tech Is Making The Mistakes That Big Oil Did 20 Years Ago" – Rob Connors, The Crude Chronicles🎙️ We are excited to share this Special Edition #COBT featuring Rob Connors, Founder of The Crude Chronicles. Rob is a longtime sell-side research analyst who covered companies across oil and gas, industrials, transportation, and aerospace and defense before launching The Crude Chronicles. His Substack offers in-depth analysis of energy markets, industry investment cycles, capital allocation, and historical trends. We have gotten to know Rob over the past few years and are avid readers of his work. We were delighted to host Rob for a wide-ranging discussion on global refining markets, capital allocation and executive incentives, and the long-term outlook for oil and natural gas. @SuperSpiked @ArjunNMurti @crudechronicle

Now Live: Super-Spiked EP231: Good Call or Bad Call: FAQ on Oil Markets⚡ This week we have a twist on our Q&A styled commentaries, which we are calling "Good Call or Bad Call.” We focus on oil markets with four topics to go through. The point of the post is to shed light on signal from noise and when to push back on consensus narratives. (1) About a month ago, U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright made headlines stating that oil flows out of the Strait of Hormuz and the Middle East in general were much higher than everyone realized. His comments were broadly dismissed as happy talk from an administration that was desperate to see lower gasoline and diesel prices ahead of upcoming midterm elections. Was it a good call or bad call to doubt Secretary Wright's comments on Middle East oil flows? (2) Has it been a good call or bad call to believe in the oil glut narrative? (3) Is it a good call or bad call to think recent changes to U.S. fuel economy rules announced by the Trump Administration will gut mpg improvements and boost gasoline demand? (4) Has our Super Vol framework been a good call or a bad call? ▶️ Listen below. #SuperSpiked @ArjunNMurti @SuperSpiked

Now Live: "I Call Myself A Drill Baby Drill Democrat" – Rep. Jon Rosenthal, Candidate for Texas Railroad Commissioner🎙️ With the midterm elections approaching, one particularly important race for the energy industry is the election for Texas Railroad Commissioner. This week, we had the opportunity to host Representative Jon Rosenthal, one of three candidates running to succeed incumbent Commissioner Jim Wright. Jon is currently serving his fourth term in the Texas House and has 25 years of experience in the oil and gas industry as an engineer and project manager. We were excited to hear Jon’s perspective on the race, the role of the Railroad Commission, and the key energy issues facing Texas. @SuperSpiked @ArjunNMurti @Jon_RosenthalTX

Now Live: Super-Spiked EP230: Long Takes From The Road: CEOs and Strategy Change⚡ It's a heavy travel week so this is going to be a quick audio only commentary. On Veriten's Close of Business Tuesday podcast this past week, we had oil industry veteran Scott Sheffield on to discuss his new memoir, "From Tehran to the Permian" (here: veriten.com/stream/cobt-347/). Scott of course was the long running CEO of oil & gas exploration and production company Pioneer Natural Resources and its predecessor Parker & Parsley spanning over three decades. Scott's career as CEO covered all four of the oil macro eras we highlighted a few weeks ago in our 20 Years of "A View from Wall Street" at Oxford podcast that discussed how corporate strategy needs to evolve depending on what macro era you are in and how mature a given era is (here: arjunmurti.substack.com/p/ep…). We give Scott, as a very long serving CEO, a lot of credit that his management style allowed Pioneer to thrive across very different oil macro environments. It is rare for a CEO to last that long and it is even rarer for a leader to be as adaptable as he was. If you pull up PXD's stock chart, it was not a straight line up, but the low points didn't break the company and every time they emerged stronger than before, culminating in the sale of the company in 2024 to ExxonMobil at an all-time high that resulted in PXD outperforming the S&P 500 by a good amount over his tenure. ▶️ Listen below. #SuperSpiked @ArjunNMurti @SuperSpiked

Now Live: "We Are Here as an Enabler of the Private Sector" – Julie Kozeracki, U.S. DOE EDF🎙️ We are excited to share this Special Edition #COBT featuring Julie Kozeracki, Acting Chief Investment Officer for the U.S. Department of Energy’s Office of Energy Dominance Financing (EDF), for a wide-ranging look at the effort to accelerate nuclear power deployment in the U.S. Julie previously served as a Senior Advisor to the office under the Biden Administration and as a Principal with Boston Consulting Group. EDF has over $250 billion in loan authority available to help deploy high-impact energy infrastructure projects. We were thrilled to hear Julie’s latest insights on EDF’s activities, recent announcements, and the opportunities and challenges ahead for nuclear development in the U.S. @juliekozeracki @ArjunNMurti @SuperSpiked @ENERGY @DOE_EDF

Now Live: "You Have to Be Willing to Change Strategy" – Scott Sheffield, Author of "From Tehran to the Permian"🎙️ We were thrilled to host our good friend Scott Sheffield on #COBT in advance of his new book, "From Tehran to the Permian: Leading the Shale Revolution and My Fight for Energy Independence," publishing on October 6th (pre-order available here: lnkd.in/gP2sRrTC). Scott’s career spans more than four decades, including serving as CEO of Parker & Parsley and later Pioneer Natural Resources, where he helped lead the company through multiple industry cycles and played an important role in the development of the Permian Basin and the U.S. shale revolution. Scott’s new book traces that journey from his formative years living in Tehran through his decades in the energy industry, sharing the leadership lessons, challenges, and experiences that shaped him along the way. We were honored to host Scott and hear his reflections on his career and his latest perspectives across the energy landscape. @SuperSpiked @ArjunNMurti

Now Live: Super-Spiked EP229: NYC Climate Week Takeaways: Glass Half Full⚡ We provide takeaways following a number of New York City Climate Week events we attended this past week. We are going with an optimistic take directed at those of you that place a high priority on addressing carbon emissions: in my 34-year career, the outlook for new energy technologies has never been brighter. The vast bulk of new energy tech is de facto lower carbon in nature. The favorable outlook is being driven by economic and geopolitical security fundamentals that are consistent with energy's natural hierarchy of needs along with our Lucky 1 Billion Other 7 Billion person framing. This is and always has been the basis for all energy and economic development. Notable events we attended were hosted by the US-India Strategic Partnership, ClearPath and API, and the Center On Global Energy Policy—developing world, right of center, left of center were represented and all recognized energy’s natural hierarchy of needs. Pretending carbon emissions is anyone’s organizing principle, mercifully, was not the view at any of the events. Notably, decreased carbon intensity of economic growth was the clear result of the focus of everyone on Earth deserving to be energy rich. Timestamps: 0:00 Introduction 3:07 FAQ on Climate 10:28 On A Personal Note: I ❤️ New York #SuperSpiked @SuperSpiked @ArjunNMurti

Physical AI is bringing the energy and technology worlds together in an exciting new way. So we got together with friends at Andreessen Horowitz (@a16z) to host a first of its kind event to dive in. The energy industry's technology transformation is accelerating, but the question is which companies are building solutions that work at industrial scale. We brought Silicon Valley to Houston for the Energy and Industrials Technology Showcase to dive in. Seven startup companies, from grid modernization to autonomous subsea inspection to AI for heavy equipment, presented live demonstrations to our friends across the energy and industrials world. This is the just start of an exciting partnership, and we look forward to doing more soon! @SuperSpiked @ArjunNMurti

Now Live: "Gas Storage Is Back In Style" – Dave Marchese, Caliche🎙️ Today on COBT we had the exciting opportunity to tour Caliche’s Golden Triangle Storage facility in Beaumont, Texas. Caliche is an acquisition and development company focused on the underground storage of natural gas and industrial gases, including hydrogen and helium, as well as carbon sequestration. Following the tour, we sat down with Dave Marchese, CEO of Caliche. Dave has over 25 years of experience in the development, construction, and operation of energy assets, including underground hydrocarbon storage, utility-scale power plants, and petrochemical facilities. We were thrilled to hear Dave’s perspective on the natural gas storage business, the growing importance of storage to LNG and power markets, and the infrastructure needed to support rising U.S. natural gas demand. @SuperSpiked @ArjunNMurti

Now Live: Super-Spiked EP228: 20 Years of “A View From Wall Street” at Oxford⚡ We have been presenting “A View From Wall Street” at the annual Oxford Energy Seminar since 2006. The seminar brings together around 50 “next generation” leaders at national oil companies, Western majors, refiners, and various government agencies from around the world. The opportunity to join this esteemed gathering at Oxford each year is a career highlight. The participants, we would note, spend 10 days on campus hearing from a range of speakers such as yours truly while also engaging in group projects/discussions meant to foster networking and diverse perspectives on the outlook and challenges facing the energy sector. It skews “oil” in terms of participant representation and is run by the former CEO of Kuwait Petroleum Company. This year, one of the participants asked me what common themes and lessons have I learned in over 20 years of speaking? How had the outlook changed? It is a great question. So, what we are going to do this week is take a look back on what we were saying at the time, what we got right, what we got wrong at the time relative to how things ultimately played out. Timestamps: 0:00 Introduction 2:12 1992-2001: $15-$25 Forever 7:29 1st OES: Isn’t The Rise to $60 Just Speculation? 10:04 2014 OES: “Normal” Discussions About Outlook 12:09 2019 OES: Can Shale Endure at $50? 14:03 OES 2023: Energy Transition Doom & Gloom 16:23 OES 2026: “Thank You For An Optimistic Take” 18:32 Alternative Energy to Clean Tech to Geo Security 22:43 Lesson For Traditional Energy 26:59 Lesson For New Energies 33:27 Biggest Surprises or Change In View 40:27 On A Personal Note: Oxford #SuperSpiked @SuperSpiked @ArjunNMurti

Now Live: "20% Of The World’s LNG Is Now Interruptible" – Martin Houston🎙️ As you may know, #Gastech is currently underway in Bangkok, Thailand. To help us get a sense of the on-the-ground takeaways and sentiment, we had the pleasure of hosting our good friend Martin Houston on #COBT. Martin is a longtime energy industry leader with decades of global experience. He currently serves as Chairman of Omega Oil and Gas, a Non-Executive Director of Energean, BUPA Arabia, CC Energy, and Singapore GasCo, and a Senior Advisor at Moelis & Company. Martin previously co-founded Tellurian, where he served as Executive Chairman until the company’s sale in 2024, and spent 32 years at BG Group, serving as Chief Operating Officer and Executive Director. Mark Castiglione is also attending Gastech and joined us for today’s session. We were thrilled to host Martin and hear his perspectives on the global natural gas and LNG outlook, Asia’s growing energy needs, and beyond. @SuperSpiked @ArjunNMurti

Now Live: Super-Spiked EP227: A Check-In On Our Big Themes for 2026⚡ We are back after a 2-week end of summer hiatus. We hope everyone had a great summer and is ready for Fall. Our Fall kickoff starts with a look back at our first Super-Spiked post his year titled “Big Themes for 2026: Up and To The Right.” In this week’s post, we will assess how we are doing we the themes we had highlighted in January. Overall, we think we did a generally decent job of identifying the most important themes, but of course have room for improvement which we spend time discussing. Timestamps: 0:00 Introduction 0:43 Mega Themes 2:33 2026 Specific Themes 8:20 Energy Scenario Normalization 11:31 Markets, Technology and M&A 15:58 What We Didn’t Sufficiently Emphasize 23:07 On A Personal Note: 25 Years @ArjunNMurti @SuperSpiked #SuperSpiked

Now Live: "We’re at the Beginning of a New Industrial Age" – Erin Price-Wright, Andreessen Horowitz🎙️ Today on #COBT we had the pleasure of hosting Erin Price-Wright, General Partner in American Dynamism at Andreessen Horowitz (a16z). Erin joined a16z from Index Ventures in 2024, where she was a Partner focused on software infrastructure and applied AI. She previously served as Head of Product for Palantir’s data analytics and machine learning program. The American Dynamism practice invests in founders and companies that support the national interest spanning aerospace, defense, public safety, education, housing, supply chain, industrials, and manufacturing. We were thrilled to hear Erin’s perspective on the rapidly evolving intersection of AI, energy, and industrial technology. @espricewright @a16z @SuperSpiked @ArjunNMurti

Now Live: Super-Spiked EP226: End of Summer Macro Thoughts⚡ We have another audio only post as we enter the final stretch of summer. Our next episode will most likely be the Saturday following Labor Day. This week we want to share various observations about the energy macro, policy, and corporate strategy—the core topics we focus on with Super-Spiked—that have come up in various events or meetings we’ve attended or in reaction from many of you to prior episodes. Six points to go through: (1)   Natural gas as a through theme for all aspects of where we are in energy and power (2)   Legacy Auto OEMs seem bad at autonomous mobility (3)   Being in a Peer Group of 1 (4)   Under-appreciated areas of energy (5)   Geopolitical necessity provides clarity of purpose to energy policy (6)   How will any country overcome China's overwhelming manufacturing dominance in numerous areas? Timestamps: 0:00 Introduction 1:19 Natural gas as a through theme for all aspects of where we are in energy and power. 8:27 Legacy Auto OEMs seem bad at autonomous mobility 13:26 Being in a Peer Group of 1 16:01 Under-appreciated areas of energy 22:58 Geopolitical necessity provides clarity of purpose to energy policy 24:28 How will any country overcome China's overwhelming manufacturing dominance in numerous areas? 29:20 On A Personal Note #SuperSpiked @SuperSpiked @ArjunNMurti

Now Live: "The Responsibilities That Come With A Facility Like This Are Big"🎙️ Continuing our California #COBT Series, we are excited to share this Special Edition featuring PBF Energy. We had the pleasure of touring PBF’s 700-acre Torrance Refinery and met with Jared Wimberley, Refinery Manager. The facility has a nameplate crude capacity of 166,000 barrels per day and a Nelson Complexity Index of 13.8. It produces approximately 1.8 billion gallons of gasoline annually, representing roughly 10 percent of California’s gasoline demand. In addition to blending three grades of gasoline, the refinery produces diesel fuel, jet fuel, liquefied petroleum gases, coke, and sulfur. We were thrilled to visit the facility, meet members of the team, and see firsthand the scale and complexity behind a critical piece of California’s energy infrastructure. @SuperSpiked @ArjunNMurti

Now Live: "Diablo Canyon Is The Largest Generating Facility In California" – Maureen Zawalick, PG&E & Matt Crozat, NEI🎙️ We are thrilled to share this Special Edition #COBT. Continuing our California Series, we had the opportunity to tour the Diablo Canyon Power Plant and sit down with Maureen Zawalick, Senior Vice President and Chief Risk Officer at Pacific Gas and Electric Company, and Matthew Crozat, Executive Director of Strategy and Policy Development at the Nuclear Energy Institute (NEI). Our visit was particularly timely as the U.S. Department of Energy recently awarded PG&E $271 million to support extended operations at Diablo Canyon, while Governor Gavin Newsom recently indicated he would leave the decision on extending the plant beyond 2030 to the next administration. Diablo Canyon produces nearly 10% of California’s electricity and is the state’s only operating nuclear power plant. @NEI @PGE4Me @ArjunNMurti @SuperSpiked