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A shocking part of the Trump–Russia "peace plan" isn’t just what it does to Ukraine. It is what it quietly does to Poland.
Buried in point 9 is a sentence that looks harmless: European fighters will be stationed in Poland.
On paper, that sounds fine. In practice, though, it looks like Washington and Moscow have agreed over Poland’s head to limit the presence of foreign forces on Polish soil, including US forces, and to put a ceiling on NATO air power over the region.
If “European fighters” are explicitly named, the obvious Russian reading is simple: no US jets in Poland. And if Russia is co-signing language that defines who and what can be stationed here, it is also a de facto say over NATO air policing in the Baltics and the rest of the eastern flank.
That is not “Pax Americana.” That is the US accepting a Russian veto over the security posture of front-line allies.
For Polish politics this hits a very specific nerve. For years, Jarosław Kaczyński and now President Karol Nawrocki have built their doctrine on one core idea: forget Brussels, forget Berlin, our security rests on a direct, privileged relationship with Washington.
For a country that has spent a decade telling itself that American power is the only real guarantee, that should be a brutal wake-up call.
We're now roughly a year away from Poland's parliamentary election, and the most interesting development for me this week was President Karol Nawrocki's tentative opening towards Grzegorz Braun's far-right party. 1/
Meanwhile, four new polls put Tusk's Civic Coalition comfortably ahead, although the parliamentary arithmetic remains much less favourable.
I've unpacked all this, the latest polling and the developing campaign strategies in this week's PolandWatch election newsletter.
Russia’s war in Ukraine is becoming Europe’s war of independence from the United States.
For me, that is the bigger meaning of what is happening now.
Trump says waiving the new sanctions on Russia is in America’s national interest. I think that judgement is wrong. 1/
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And building the satellites, ISR, command systems, missile defence, strategic lift and other enablers that the Starshield episode has shown Europe needs if no president in the Oval Office is to be able to turn off the switch when Washington decides its interests have changed.
Russia already demands the Ukrainian territories it claims to have annexed. Now Putin has added a 660-kilometre security zone along the border, covering territory beyond those claims, and says it is non-negotiable.
Poland now has two competing centres of power claiming the authority to decide who can exercise constitutional power.
On one side is Donald Tusk's government and its parliamentary majority. On the other is President Karol Nawrocki, backed by the opposition Law and Justice party (PiS).
The problem is that the institution supposed to settle constitutional disputes, the Constitutional Tribunal, is itself the subject of the dispute. 1/
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By forcing the confrontation now, Tusk is trying to break that deadlock and establish parliament's authority to fill the court's vacancies. More importantly for Tusk is that it would give his government a win in a term of office with few to shout about.


