Stratify is a two part innovative, intelligence-driven startup: a Think Tank, for thought leadership & communications & Capital Raise for Product R&D to market
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Stratify retweeted
China does not need to build better AI than America. It needs to make American AI unprofitable.
The playbook is older than the technology. Flood the market with a cheaper version until the domestic industry collapses. China ran it with steel. Ran it with solar. Ran it with semiconductors.
Not a better product. A cheaper one. Good enough at a fraction of the price beats best in class at full cost.
AI is next.
Open-weight models. Lightweight. Inexpensive. Already inside a third of corporations. Not because they outperform. Because a CFO looked at the benchmark gap, looked at the price gap, and made the only decision capitalism allows.
The rational one.
China’s weapon is not Chinese technology. It is American capitalism.
The market has no loyalty. No patriotism. Only price sensitivity. Every procurement decision is a vote, and the vote always goes to the invoice.
American AI companies are valued on one assumption. That corporations will keep paying premium prices for premium intelligence. China’s strategy is to make that assumption false. Not by outbuilding. By undercutting.
Creating value and capturing value have never been the same thing. AI might be the first technology powerful enough to prove it at civilizational scale.
Roughly 40% of the S&P is tied to the AI bet. The majority of recent GDP growth has come from AI capital expenditure. America concentrated everything into a single sector and left that sector’s economics undefended.
The distance between AI boom and American recession is one quarter where enough CFOs make the same rational decision at the same time.
The technology race was the distraction. Who has the biggest model, who wins the benchmark, who reaches AGI first. None of that matters if the business model underneath it cannot survive being undercut.
A technological advantage that cannot sustain its own economics is not an advantage. It is a head start with no finish line.
America built the most advanced AI on Earth.
It has not yet built an economy that survives someone selling it cheaper.
And the country that figured that out is not trying to catch up.
It is trying to make catching up unnecessary.
Stratify retweeted
i kind of thought in my nearly 30 years on this earth i'd watch energy get cheaper. it's done the opposite
electricity was about 7.5p a unit in 2001. if it had just tracked inflation it'd be around 15p. it's 26p
i was hoping it'd end up like water in scotland. you just turn the tap on and never think about it. basically unlimited, basically free
and it's the butterfly effect for everything else. we will not lead in ai without cheap energy. we will not bring manufacturing back at any real scale without it. the cost of living does not come down without it
get energy cheap and plentiful and everything else falls into place
Stratify retweeted
You don't even need mass unemployment for this. A mortgage is a multiple of salary, and so your house is really a leveraged bet on your salary’s ability to pay it down (so to stay static at best) long term.
Therefore if we see a rehiring of mid-career white collar professionals at around 25% lower wages then they borrow 25% less.
So it follows the pool of buyers who can stretch to £700k shrinks overnight.
If firms continue to stop hiring juniors (first due to NIC and cost implications under Labour, then under AI) then the first-time buyers disappear too, which means the people above them can't sell, which means nobody trades up, and the estate agent’s chain that's supposed to finish at a premium Home Counties front door stalls three rungs below it. This is a problem. A right wing govt might eventually scrap stamp duty to unstick the housing market. But it won’t be enough. The most likely thing to happen that impacts this materially is a big QE print. I’d say that’s almost a certainty now just a matter of when rather than if.
So logically in the meantime then the (left wing) Treasury goes looking for money that can't leave. Bricks can't. Council tax revaluation, CGT on main residences and land value tax all get much easier to sell when homeowners look like the winners and the young look furious. That's roughly how the Chartists eventually got their way. If they print instead, the house goes up in pounds and down in dollars and francs, and dollars and francs are where I'm keeping score.
The fair counter here is that senior people did well in the software example, and senior people are exactly who buys £1m houses in the Home Counties. So - per my recent GBTT articles - prime Surrey Hills probably falls less than Arnold Nottinghamshire. White flight/middle class flight from multicultural urban decay is another. For my money, that is only a reason to expect a softer fall. It's no reason to hold on, because it still relies on the chain below working and on HMRC leaving it alone. Neither looks likely to me.
The only thing that saves the house is Jevons turning up within two or three years with new jobs on good pay. I'd put that at about 10% likelihood based on what I know today. But with the speed of AI now nothing is totally off the table in this respect. Play the hand you are dealt.
Welcome all good faith counters.
Agree there'll be jobs we can't see yet. I have a horrible sneaking suspicion loads more people will end up working in AI regulation and compliance. The horror…
But yeah, this is classic Jevons against Engels isn’t it. Jevons says cheaper output means more demand, and over the long run he's usually right. Roughly 60% of US jobs today didn't exist in 1940, to your point.
Ofc it only works where demand is elastic tho. Cheaper legal advice will find new buyers. Cheaper credit risk reports won't, and as I see it most back-office work is the latter. This is why, IMO, India is turbofucked.
The Engels' pause is the gap in the middle and this is what dislocates the economy. Eg for those less familiar - between 1780 and 1840 British output per worker rose 46% while real wages rose 12%, so the gains went to the owners for sixty years before workers pay packets caught up. The spreadsheet transition took about 40 years, slowly enough that retirement did most of the work. This one looks like it'll take 5 years, so it lands on people mid-career with mortgages. That’s a lot of people.
So let’s scale it up. Let’s say 1m mid-career white collar workers are made redundant and each rehired just £15k lower, that's £15bn of pay gone and roughly £6bn of income tax and NI with it. Those households stop spending, so blue collar / tradies lose their customers too. UC claims rise just as a wave of mortgages refixes against smaller payslips, and HMT is already borrowing at over 5% to cover the gap, so it either taxes the remaining workers harder or prints (never discount both under Labour). Meanwhile nobody hires juniors (already a thing), so an entire generation misses the first rung of the career ladder and the housing ladder with it. That has big demographic and pension implications. They don’t have kids they don’t pay into group SIPPs etc.
Last time this gave us the Chartists. People who did everything right won't wait sixty years for Jevons to turn up (most’ll be retired or dead). It'll be a mess, for my money. Big shitty mess landing on an economy arguably among the least able to deal with it in the developed world.
Stratify retweeted
There is a cover-up at the heart of Government. Ministers have been forced to admit that the “missing” Islamophobia definition documents do exist.
After pressure from the Free Speech Union and Shadow Justice Secretary Nick Timothy, Angela Rayner’s Communities department has conceded that documents that helped shape the “anti-Muslim hostility” definition still exist, despite previously saying they had been destroyed.
It now seems almost certain that the Government tried to bury evidence that could show whether Islamist extremists helped draft what amounts to Britain’s de facto Islamic blasphemy law.
The Free Speech Union has warned that this non-statutory definition will be used — and is already being used — by activists, public bodies and authorities to silence legitimate criticism and debate about Islam, its history and its practices.
A review ordered by Will Garton, the top civil servant at the Ministry of Housing, Communities and Local Government, found that responses to the Working Group’s consultation on the definition do exist and are “still held on the department’s systems”.
The Free Speech Union threatened the department with a judicial review unless it revealed who had been given the chance to influence the definition.
Enough is enough. There can be no more excuses. Angela Rayner must come clean about what on earth is going on under her watch.
Read more below 👇
Stratify retweeted
This is misinformation and deflection from an unelected PM who tells you he is ‘honest’ … er this isn’t honest.
Ofgem itself says our bills include wholesale costs, NETWORK costs and GOVERNMENT POLICY costs (net zero bollocks)
Your own Government admits gas still sets the UK electricity price most of the time.
And what he completely leaves out is the enormous cost of the energy system successive governments have CHOSEN to build.
Renewable subsidies funded by tax payers, Grid expansion where only the shareholders make profit, balancing costs because of Mad Ed and Constraint payments to tempt private investors into business plans that don’t work without tax payer subsidies. Oh and then there’s the £ BILLIONS of new infrastructure WE ALSO HAVE TO FUND.
In fact, this year the Government moved 75% of the legacy Renewables Obligation OFF household electricity bills and onto the Exchequer, THE TAXPAYER NOW PAYS IT.
And Clean Power 2030 requires around £40 BILLION of investment every year to 2030, while NESO is forecasting £3.2bn in constraint costs over just the next 12 months.
So no, Britain does not have expensive electricity simply because we “privatised the basics”.
We have an expensive, gas linked, heavily regulated energy system carrying enormous policy and infrastructure costs.
Changing who owns the funding vehicle for the grid will not make those costs disappear.
Calling it “public control” doesn’t make energy cheap, it just makes him much less honest.
I want to be honest about how we’ve got to a place where British billpayers are paying some of the highest energy costs in Europe.
Over the past 40 years, we’ve given up control of our necessities, outsourced our essentials and privatised the basics. Water, transport, housing. And of course, energy.
Now the public are paying the price. We haven’t invested in the infrastructure we need. Conflict overseas has pushed up energy costs and it’s hurting our businesses and families.
That’s why we need to take back greater control of our energy system.
This week, I announced Great British Grid, which will speed up connections and push down bills.
We’re also giving mayors, local leaders and communities a stronger role. With funding for People’s Power projects, communities will be able to build solar panels on libraries and town halls, hydro schemes in rivers or publicly owned windfarms on local land.
But it’s not just energy we need stronger public control over. It’s also water, housing, transport and care.
So we’re repealing the ban on public ownership of water companies. We’re building more council homes than this country has seen since the end of World War Two.
We’re reforming the leasehold system so families aren’t squeezed for every penny. And we’re opening up home ownership for first time buyers who can’t rely on the bank of mum and dad.
This week I also announced my determination to introduce a National Care Service, to put people above profit and to give pensioners peace of mind.
Together, we’ll rewire the country from top to bottom so that it works for all people in all places.
That is the only way to put Britain back on the right path. It’s the only way to put power back in people’s hands. And it’s the only way we will bring hope again.
Stratify retweeted
Dear Andy, you do know this is untrue, don’t you?
Highest energy bills in the world are due to:
* Reckless pursuit of net zero
* Blowing up our coal-fired power stations
* Failing to exploit our own fossil fuels
* Insane dependency on foreign oil and gas. The phrase “over a barrel” springs to mind
* Paying Norway £20 billion plus a year for oil and gas we could get out of our own North Sea
* Subsidizing renewables to the tune of billions by slapping green taxes on bills
* Putting an eco-cult and leftist ideology before the comfort and warmth of the British people
* Allowing good jobs to be lost in pursuit of all of the above
* Claiming your government wants to “reindustrialise” while creating conditions no manufacturer could succeed in
* Closing refineries and gas storage so the UK is uniquely vulnerable this winter and likely to have serious power cuts.
You’re welcome.
@andyburnham
I want to be honest about how we’ve got to a place where British billpayers are paying some of the highest energy costs in Europe.
Over the past 40 years, we’ve given up control of our necessities, outsourced our essentials and privatised the basics. Water, transport, housing. And of course, energy.
Now the public are paying the price. We haven’t invested in the infrastructure we need. Conflict overseas has pushed up energy costs and it’s hurting our businesses and families.
That’s why we need to take back greater control of our energy system.
This week, I announced Great British Grid, which will speed up connections and push down bills.
We’re also giving mayors, local leaders and communities a stronger role. With funding for People’s Power projects, communities will be able to build solar panels on libraries and town halls, hydro schemes in rivers or publicly owned windfarms on local land.
But it’s not just energy we need stronger public control over. It’s also water, housing, transport and care.
So we’re repealing the ban on public ownership of water companies. We’re building more council homes than this country has seen since the end of World War Two.
We’re reforming the leasehold system so families aren’t squeezed for every penny. And we’re opening up home ownership for first time buyers who can’t rely on the bank of mum and dad.
This week I also announced my determination to introduce a National Care Service, to put people above profit and to give pensioners peace of mind.
Together, we’ll rewire the country from top to bottom so that it works for all people in all places.
That is the only way to put Britain back on the right path. It’s the only way to put power back in people’s hands. And it’s the only way we will bring hope again.
Stratify retweeted
Very few understand this. Normies and politicians alike. Some do though and this is ultimately being done to us intentionally and possibly maliciously.
Stratify retweeted
Before the internet we thought every village only had one idiot.
We were very, very wrong.
Stratify retweeted
Oh FFS…. Who cares about their petty club! Brexit is NOT the problem! This is …
our idiotic Net Zero bollocks policies have made us utterly dependent on imported diesel.
We’ve closed refineries, stuck massive carbon costs on industry and made investment in traditional fuels unprofitable.
Then we replaced domestic production with IMPORTS., from people who can easily hold us to ransom!!!
Total strategic stupidity based on a globalist ideology.
Idiots.
Stratify retweeted
This ‘State Pension debate’ has gone beyond parody now, the mass cognitive dissonance on display is utterly depressing, although I’m sure much of ‘commentary’ is nothing more than bloody-minded ‘faux’ stupidity🤷🏼♂️
There are however, some stand out, weapons-grade roasters on here that seem to revel in their self-created echo chambers of like-minded simpletons but, and this bit isn’t funny, they appear to be rapidly growing in numbers🤦♂️😩
Social media - rapidly reducing average I.Qs and independent thought en masse 🤷🏼♂️😩
Orchestrated or coincidence?
Stratify retweeted
As someone who voted Remain, I actually feel despair that there are people who want to relitigate the Brexit referendum and rejoin the EU.
It makes perfect sense to be part of a frictionless trading zone with our European neighbours. But the EU came with more strings attached than the man from Up’s balloon collection. It isn’t worth trading sovereignty and accountability in return for a free-trade zone.
In the short term, we might be poorer, and that feels bad right now. But imagine how it would feel if we re-entered the EU, ceded sovereignty to technocrats, and signed ourselves back up to an institution that has presided over stagnant growth, struggled with uncontrolled migration and embraced highly “progressive” policies, including gender ideology across its institutions.
We’re out. We should stay out, make it work, and use whatever clout we can muster to improve our trading relationship with the EU while maintaining full control over our laws, money and borders.
For that to happen, we’re going to need a different government. The modern Labour Party’s sense of patriotism is unrecognisable from the self-confident belief in this country that was once shared across the political spectrum not all that many years ago.
Rejoining the EU would be the final act of surrender - an admission that this once-great democracy was begging to become a vassal state.
We may be on our knees, but with belief and good leadership, we can get back on our feet and stand tall again.
What we need now is steadfast faith in our future, not the craven calls of those who would have us prostrate ourselves before an undemocratic bureaucratic bloc and ask to be walked upon.
Stratify retweeted
J'ai lu « 12 règles pour une vie » de Jordan Peterson @jordanbpeterson il y a 4 ans, pendant un voyage en Grèce. C'est un des livres qui m'a le plus marqué, et je le conseille à absolument tout le monde. Voici ce qu'il faut en retenir.
L'idée centrale : l'existence oscille entre deux pôles. Le chaos, c'est l'inconnu, l'imprévu, ce qui nous déstabilise. L'ordre, c'est la structure et la sécurité, mais aussi le risque de rigidité et de tyrannie. Une vie bonne se joue sur la ligne de crête entre les deux. Pour y marcher, il faut la responsabilité personnelle et la recherche du sens, seul vrai antidote à la souffrance inévitable de l'existence.
Règle 1 — Tiens-toi droit, les épaules en arrière.
Avec l'exemple des homards, Peterson montre que les hiérarchies sont anciennes et inscrites dans notre biologie, jusque dans la chimie de la sérotonine. Ta posture influence la façon dont les autres te traitent et dont ton propre système nerveux réagit. Se redresser, c'est accepter volontairement le poids de l'existence et faire face au monde plutôt que de s'y soustraire.
Règle 2 — Traite-toi comme quelqu'un dont tu as la responsabilité.
Les gens donnent plus fidèlement ses médicaments à leur chien qu'ils ne prennent les leurs. Peterson y voit un mépris de soi profond. Prends soin de toi comme tu prendrais soin d'un être cher : fixe-toi un but, donne-toi une direction. Ta vie compte, pour toi comme pour les autres.
Règle 3 — Lie-toi d'amitié avec des gens qui veulent le meilleur pour toi.
Tu n'es pas obligé de rester loyal envers ceux qui te tirent vers le bas. Vouloir sauver quelqu'un qui ne veut pas être sauvé peut t'engloutir. Entoure-toi de gens qui t'encouragent à grandir, et sois toi-même ce genre d'ami.
Règle 4 — Compare-toi à celui que tu étais hier, pas à ce qu'est quelqu'un d'autre aujourd'hui.
Il y aura toujours quelqu'un de meilleur que toi sur un point. La seule comparaison juste, c'est avec toi-même. Vise de petites améliorations quotidiennes, réalistes et cumulatives.
Règle 5 — Ne laisse pas tes enfants faire quoi que ce soit qui te les ferait détester.
Discipliner un enfant est un acte d'amour, pas d'autorité. Un enfant sans limites devient insupportable aux yeux des autres, et le monde le lui fera payer. Le rôle du parent est de le rendre socialement désirable, pour qu'il soit accueilli, aimé et ait sa chance.
Règle 6 — Mets de l'ordre parfait dans ta maison avant de critiquer le monde.
Face à l'injustice et à la souffrance, la tentation est d'accuser l'existence elle-même, ce qui mène au ressentiment, parfois à la destruction. Comme le montre Soljenitsyne, avant de vouloir réformer la société, corrige ce qui dysfonctionne dans ta propre vie. Le changement du monde commence par soi.
Règle 7 — Poursuis ce qui a du sens, pas ce qui est commode.
Le cœur du livre. La commodité, c'est la gratification immédiate. Le sens implique le sacrifice : renoncer à quelque chose maintenant pour un bien plus grand plus tard. C'est ce qui rend la souffrance supportable. Le sens se trouve dans l'engagement, la responsabilité et la confrontation volontaire avec la difficulté.
Règle 8 — Dis la vérité, ou au moins ne mens pas.
Le mensonge, même petit, déforme progressivement ton rapport à la réalité et construit une vie sur des illusions qui finissent par s'effondrer. Dire la vérité est un acte de courage qui t'aligne avec le réel. C'est aussi ce qui protège une société de la tyrannie.
Règle 9 — Pars du principe que la personne que tu écoutes sait peut-être quelque chose que tu ignores.
Inspiré de Carl Rogers. Écoute pour comprendre, pas pour répondre ou pour gagner. Le vrai dialogue est un outil de pensée et de découverte. Chacun peut t'apprendre quelque chose.
Règle 10 — Sois précis dans ton discours.
Un problème flou est terrifiant et insoluble. Nommé précisément, il devient gérable. Le chaos qu'on refuse de regarder grossit comme un dragon. Parler clairement, c'est transformer l'inconnu menaçant en quelque chose qu'on peut affronter.
Règle 11 — Ne dérange pas les enfants quand ils font du skateboard.
Les jeunes ont besoin de prendre des risques pour devenir compétents et courageux. Peterson critique une société qui surprotège et veut tout aseptiser, et qui décourage notamment chez les garçons le goût du défi. Le danger maîtrisé forge le caractère.
Règle 12 — Caresse un chat quand tu en croises un dans la rue.
Le chapitre le plus intime. Peterson y parle de la grave maladie de sa fille. Face à une souffrance qu'on ne peut pas résoudre, il faut savoir accueillir les petits moments de beauté et de grâce. L'existence est dure, mais elle offre des éclats de joie qu'il ne faut pas laisser passer.
Les valeurs qui traversent tout le livre : la responsabilité comme source de sens, plus que la recherche du bonheur.
La vérité comme fondation de l'individu et de la société.
Le courage d'affronter volontairement le chaos.
L'amélioration continue, humble et progressive. Le sacrifice et la vision long terme face à l'impulsion immédiate.
L'humilité dans l'écoute. La gratitude pour ce qui est beau malgré la tragédie.
Le fil conducteur : tu n'es pas une victime des circonstances. Tu es capable de porter le poids de ta vie et, ce faisant, de rendre le monde un peu meilleur.
Merci à Jordan Peterson pour son travail.
Stratify retweeted
My brother Kris would have been 53 today. He was a Royal Navy fighter pilot, flying the FA2 Sea Harrier from our aircraft carriers and then the Harrier GR9. He flew 160 missions in Afghanistan. Lieutenant Commander Kris Ward.
In November 2018 he took the decision to end his own life soon after his 45th birthday.
No matter how well you think your friends and family are doing, dig a little deeper. Be there for them. They may need your help. When it’s too late it’s too late.
Stratify retweeted
Germans don’t yet understand what is coming. An epic squeeze between the US tech and AI revolution, and massively improved Chinese manufacturing capabilities will wipe out the German industrial base. The current wave of bankruptcies and layoffs announced every week is nothing compared to what lies ahead.
Germany has a few years left to keep masking the implosion and lack of reforms with more debt and growing government spending, but this will only slightly slow the demise, not stop it. It will be brutal, a former manufacturing superpower replacing its industry with government „jobs“ simply can’t stay prosperous.
Germany’s trade deficit with China widened to $100 billion, but it’s even worse than that, China is gaining share in other markets Germany used to export to. Chinese products are not only cheaper, in many cases they are also better. The German business model was based on:
1. Growing exports to China and other emerging markets
2. Manufactured with cheap nuclear and Russian energy
3. Produced using cheap subcontractors in Eastern Europe
Now all three are gone. Grotesque regulations, bureaucracy and overtaxation give Germany’s economy the rest.
Stratify retweeted
The budget should be balanced.
The treasury should be refilled.
Public debt should be reduced.
The arrogance of officialdom should be tempered and controlled, and the assistance to foreign lands should be curtailed lest Rome become bankrupt.
People must again learn to work instead of living on public assistance.
Stratify retweeted
Totally floored by this. The world's greatest naval historian, NAM Rodger, has reviewed A Dangerous Game in the new TLS. He comes to a judgment on Cochrane's guilt in the Great Stock Exchange Fraud of 1814 and then concludes with this.
Stratify retweeted
We are ruled by morons!
