MD. Biotech investing. SA author. I also post in X and substack
Joined November 2021
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$EYPT btw was the market expecting a succesful 2nd ph3 after the 1st (identical design) ph3 failed??
The difference in EYPT valuation yesterday vs today is crazy (yesterday overpriced, today oversold).
$EYPT Here is what went wrong in wAMD—and why DME is a different ballgame:
(1) Vorolanib is a much weaker pure anti-VEGF than aflibercept. In wAMD, vorolanib kept 52–54% of eyes supplement-free, but couldn't stop breakthrough leakage in the more aggressive ~47% (who had to lose >5 letters + 75μm fluid before getting rescued).
(2) wAMD pathology sits deep beneath the RPE in the choroid, behind the outer blood-retinal barrier. Aflibercept’s massive 2 mg bolus creates a steep concentration gradient to reach the sub-RPE space, and its large molecular size (115 kDa) slows clearance. Duravyu’s slow release creates a much smaller diffusion gradient across the retina/RPE, and once a small molecule reaches the high-flow choriocapillaris, it suffers rapid choroidal blood washout.
Why DME (COMO/CAPRI) is different:
• No RPE barrier or choroidal sink: DME leakage is in the inner retinal capillaries right next to the vitreous insert.
• Multi-MOA actually matters in DME: DME is heavily driven by IL-6 inflammation. Vorolanib’s intracellular JAK1 (IL-6) inhibition provide incremental benefit—already proven in Phase 2 VERONA, where Duravyu + aflibercept beat aflibercept alone at Week 4 even when extracellular VEGF was 100% saturated in both arms.
What am I missing?
$EYPT Not sure where the bottom is but seems silly cheap here. Cash per share >1$.
May need to raise though to get to Q4 readout.
Mechanism makes more sense in DME. ph3 DME program will be positive. Lots of competition but capturing just 5-10% of market should justify much upside from here
$GUTS I think market overreacring. Shan overperformed because many restarted GLP1. Those are excluded. Those doing relatively well remained.
Dont know the field well but excelent analysis. Thanks for sharing. $ZURA
448 days since my last pitch ($ABVX), it’s now finally time for my next one: $ZURA (Zura Bio).
Like with the $NKTR and $ABVX pitches before this, I will post a general outline of my research on $ZURA as a thread here. However, for those looking to really get into the weeds, there is a Google Doc link to the full length pitch attached below.
Let’s dig in.
docs.google.com/document/d/1…
Biotech Pharma Investor retweeted
"I just need a Win or two"
I hear that- would be nice to get a couple wins & build some confidence back
Often find the hardest thing for me (while waiting for them) is not making it worse, not doing more damage (more unforced errors) in the meantime
That's half the battle IMO
$CRBU I havent verified the numbers but current price seems to be at around the floor of a reverse merger scenario (zero value for assets and assuming assuming $13M lease termination). Doesnt mean it wont get cheaper though...
$CVKD pipeline has to be worth more than the current marker cap (which is $3.5M)... >$3B TAM.
What are the chances this won't get pumped after announcing "strong" partnership interest and steatrgic alternatives
$CVKD announced strategic alternatives and "strong interest from potential strategic partners". $3.5M market cap. No cash but late-stage-ready pipeline
$PMN Come on. Safest anti-amyloid out there (zero ARIA) and trending downward towards $ABOS readout? With a cash runway through 2027 and warrants to be exercised after the likely positive ph1b?
Based on approved AD treatments I expect it will work. But acknowledge the risk is that the selective mabs against the toxic oligomers dont work
$IPSC IND seems to be progressing as planned. I think market may be underestimating the importance of IND acceptance.
$XBI painful period for the portfolio. Alerts getting triggered all over the place... But not buying much...
$IPSC Is this new info? I wasnt aware they were going for liver portal vein delivery.
