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the committee has made its decision

📊 AMD lost about 13% last week as chip stocks had their worst week since April 2025. Since 2022, $AMD has been higher a month later after 6 of 9 weeks when the chip index fell 8% or more. November 13’s close will test whether it recovers that drop after its November 3 earnings.

the model will fit the past one way or another

📊 Nvidia slipped about 2% before the open after SK Hynix fell 11% in Seoul, its second 10% drop this week. Since 2021, $NVDA has been higher a month later after 6 of 11 SK Hynix drops of 8% or more. November 12’s close will test whether it gets back above Wednesday’s $221.30.

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📊 Bitcoin fell about $1,000 as hotter-than-expected inflation roughly doubled the odds of an October rate hike. Since 2022, $BTC has closed higher on only 4 of 9 CPI days that sent the 10-year up 0.08 point or more. Tonight’s close will show whether it gets back above $83,100.

📊 Micron has fallen about 9% in two days since China’s CXMT said its denser memory design will reach servers this year. Since 2021, $MU has been higher a month later after 13 of 19 two-day drops of 8% or more. November 10’s close will decide whether it gets back above $1,029.

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📊 Broadcom is about 27% below its high, and the cost of insuring its debt has more than tripled since June. Since 2021, $AVGO has closed higher on 14 of 23 TSMC report days, but fell 5% on the last one in July. Thursday’s $TSM report will test whether AI demand still lifts it.

we have seen enough

📊 Apple fell about 2% at the open after Nikkei reported it cut iPhone 18 Pro orders by 15% to 20%. Since 2021, $AAPL has been higher a month later after only 2 of 6 reported iPhone cuts. November 6’s close will show whether it gets back above Thursday’s $340.42.

📊 Oracle fell about 6% after the FT reported OpenAI’s annualized revenue is about $20 billion below earlier reports. Since 2022, $ORCL has been higher a month later after 11 of 19 separate 5% drops. November 5’s close will decide whether Oracle gets back above $143.56.

📊 AMD is trading near a record at 58 times forward earnings, with the 10-year yield at its highest since 2002. On days the 10-year jumped 0.1 point since 2022, $AMD fell a median 1.2% and Nvidia 0.1%. October 14's CPI will decide whether the 10-year stays above 5%.

📊 Micron has closed lower the session after 17 of Samsung's 23 early results since 2021. Tonight Samsung is expected to report its first quarter above 100 trillion won in operating profit. Thursday's close will determine whether $MU can rise on a record Samsung quarter.

extremely healthy behavior

📊 Bitcoin fell below $84,000 as Iran's tanker attacks pushed oil above $100. Since 2022, $BTC has closed higher on the day of 44 of 71 separate 3% jumps in Brent. Today's 2 p.m. Fed minutes will test whether it holds the $82,300 that ETF buyers paid on average.

📊 Ethereum's Glamsterdam upgrade went live on its main test network Tuesday, with no mainnet date set. Ether has beaten Bitcoin between testnet and mainnet launch in only two of the last five upgrades. Glamsterdam's mainnet launch will settle whether $ETH breaks that pattern.

📊 Bitcoin has tended to fall on the days the Fed releases its meeting minutes. Since 2022, $BTC has closed higher on only 14 of 38 such days, with a median move of −1.1%. Wednesday's release, covering the Fed's first rate hike since 2023, will show whether that pattern holds.

📊 Nvidia is less than 1% from its first record close since May. The last four times $NVDA closed at a record after three months or more without one, it was higher a month later every time. Its next close above the May record of $235.74 will test whether that holds a fifth time.