Senior Advisor, @FDICgov. Former director at the Yale Program on Financial Stability. Still an academic at parties. (Personal views only.)
Joined March 2019
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New paper: "Rushing to Judgement and the Banking Crisis of 2023"
At the two-year anniversary of the crisis, @thejonrose and I present 7 facts that are overlooked in the standard account of the crisis: chicagofed.org/publications/…
FDIC Chair Hill on agentic bank transfers: Similar tools exist today and go unused. "There are various services [customers are] getting from the bank—there is a broader relationship—and so there's a lot that goes into the decision of where to put funds."
youtube.com/watch?v=rGWeYQ8c…
Me when @Birdyword disses Succession
Steven Kelly retweeted
A project of many years with Ken Snowden. The book is about how our system of housing finance developed since the late 1800s. Thanks, Steve.
A mandatory preorder. @thejonrose and Ken Snowden have written a complete history of the American mortgage market.
“House Money” releases May 24, 2027
a.co/d/0flE9sJ4
‘Javier Bardem will star in The Spread as a billionaire seeking “the power to shift the center of economic gravity to Miami — and decide how long the party lasts.”’
HBO Bags High Finance Drama 'The Spread' Starring Javier Bardem hollywoodreporter.com/tv/tv-…
A mandatory preorder. @thejonrose and Ken Snowden have written a complete history of the American mortgage market.
“House Money” releases May 24, 2027
a.co/d/0flE9sJ4
“While many postmortem accounts have asserted that social media fueled the run at SVB […] Charles River Associates analyzed this claim […] and concluded that social media did not trigger the bank run at SVB, and there was no evidence that social media accelerated the run.”
Speech by Vice Chair for Supervision Bowman on initial findings from independent review of Silicon Valley Bank @cityoflondon: federalreserve.gov/newsevent…
Watch live: youtube.com/live/WRJnz2auuZs
Learn more about Vice Chair for Supervision Bowman: federalreserve.gov/aboutthef…
Jonathan Rose and I previously debunked the social media theory of the 2023 bank runs here:
New paper: "Rushing to Judgement and the Banking Crisis of 2023"
At the two-year anniversary of the crisis, @thejonrose and I present 7 facts that are overlooked in the standard account of the crisis: chicagofed.org/publications/…
And I wrote about it earlier for FT Alphaville here:
2023’s bank runs were the fastest in history. But blaming social media just doesn’t stack up.
New from me at @FTAlphaville: ft.com/content/74a7ec7c-cd7e…
For hawkishness context, today is the 18th anniversary of the Fed holding rates steady the day after Lehman failed.
Unthinkable today.
“Increasingly, the share of queries that are truly closed-weight frontier-model-worthy is declining. Back at the start of the year, three-fifths of its queries were routed through to closed-weight proprietary models. The latest share is just a quarter.”
How big is the open-model threat to AI hyperscalers? ft.trib.al/o1lVfGr
In a financial crisis, one of the biggest questions is where can you source fresh capital (e.g., Warren Buffett, sovereign wealth funds, etc.).
The ever-creative China with a new one:
China pumps $53bn into banks and insurers ft.trib.al/bmzLOkx
"The company said on Wednesday it was creating the vehicle, dubbed StableFund..."
Tether has launched a private credit fund. @nikasgari
ft.com/content/b9e0b9b5-3b6e…
The natural next step after solving Navier-Stokes
We don't have nearly enough narrative history on the current nonbank structures in the financial system. This book will help correct for this.
Cohan is always required reading.
The history of finance can be written as history of associating and de-associating with the name of a bank
DWS embraces Deutsche Bank name eight years after distancing itself ft.trib.al/sjxsedV
These 10,000 AI agents rn:
We’re sharing a solution to the Navier-Stokes Millennium Prize Problem, one of the deepest problems at the frontier of mathematics.
The proof was produced by a group of agents, using an OpenAI next-generation model significantly more capable than GPT-6 Astra.
The problem concerns whether the description of smooth three-dimensional fluid motion modeled by the Navier-Stokes equations can break down. It has remained unresolved for roughly 90 years.
All the stats going around comparing today’s long-term yields to 2007-2008 say less about today than just how insanely high rates still were throughout much of the financial crisis.
Unthinkable today.
Given all the Odyssey hype and the ink spilled over the ongoing rethink of the value of forward guidance, I kind of can't believe there hasn't been an overlapping piece...
