@SpursIQ
spursiq.substack.com
Joined May 2025
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(1/7) Spurs found the centre of the box more often against Everton: 14 central on-ball events, versus 12 across their first three league matches combined. But 14 shots produced only 0.69 xG. A closer look at Spurs’ attack after four league matches.
Two penalty-area maps compare Spurs’ recorded on-ball events. The first three league matches combined had 12 central events out of 79 box events (15%); against Everton, 14 of 39 were central (36%). Red marks central events. Circles show non-shot events; triangles show shots. Both maps use the same scale.

ALT Two penalty-area maps compare Spurs’ recorded on-ball events. The first three league matches combined had 12 central events out of 79 box events (15%); against Everton, 14 of 39 were central (36%). Red marks central events. Circles show non-shot events; triangles show shots. Both maps use the same scale.

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Progressing up the pitch is not an issue for Spurs, they are 4th in the league for line breaking passes. Yet in the final third they are struggling a lot. Dead last in 20th in open play xG with 2.22.
SpursIQ
@SpursIQSep 17
Replying to @SpursIQ
(4/7) Spurs also rank fourth for line-breaking passes: 453 across four league matches. Yet their open-play xG is lowest. The volume is substantial. These totals do not tell us which line was broken or where the pass finished.
Scatter plot of all 20 Premier League clubs after four matches. Line-breaking passes are on the horizontal axis; open-play xG is on the vertical axis. Spurs, highlighted in navy, rank fourth for line-breaking passes (453) but last for open-play xG (2.22).

ALT Scatter plot of all 20 Premier League clubs after four matches. Line-breaking passes are on the horizontal axis; open-play xG is on the vertical axis. Spurs, highlighted in navy, rank fourth for line-breaking passes (453) but last for open-play xG (2.22).

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Spurs are getting forward. The chances still aren’t good enough. After four league matches: • 3rd for final-third entry passes • 4th for line-breaking passes • Last for open-play xG A closer look at the attack, and what changed against Everton. spursiq.substack.com/p/spurs…
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(6/7) High regains offer another route to goal, but Spurs rarely get a shot away from them. Only two of their 34 high-regain sequences ended in a shot. Brentford managed nine from 35. Spurs’ 5.9% return is joint lowest in the league after four matches.
Scatter plot of all 20 Premier League clubs after four matches. High regains are on the horizontal axis; sequences ending in a shot are on the vertical axis. Spurs, in navy, have two shot-ending sequences from 34 regains. Brentford, in blue, have nine from 35. High regains are open-play possession gains within 40 metres of the opposition goal.

ALT Scatter plot of all 20 Premier League clubs after four matches. High regains are on the horizontal axis; sequences ending in a shot are on the vertical axis. Spurs, in navy, have two shot-ending sequences from 34 regains. Brentford, in blue, have nine from 35. High regains are open-play possession gains within 40 metres of the opposition goal.

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(7/7) The chance-quality gap is clear against City. After four league matches: Spurs: 51 shots, 3.45 xG. City: 52 shots, 7.68 xG. Everton brought encouraging central involvement. Spurs still need to turn their attacking access into better chances.
Scatter plot of all 20 Premier League clubs after four matches. Shots are on the horizontal axis; expected goals are on the vertical axis. Spurs, in navy, have 51 shots and 3.45 xG. Manchester City, in blue, have 52 shots and 7.68 xG: almost the same number of attempts, but more than twice the total xG.

ALT Scatter plot of all 20 Premier League clubs after four matches. Shots are on the horizontal axis; expected goals are on the vertical axis. Spurs, in navy, have 51 shots and 3.45 xG. Manchester City, in blue, have 52 shots and 7.68 xG: almost the same number of attempts, but more than twice the total xG.

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- Van hecke no surprise here with his progressing passing. - Fernandes is the midfielder who can actually penetrate the box with his passing (other than Maddison), and is something we desperately need. - The Tel visual points to the bigger issue that we are not getting our attacking players touches in the box centrally.
SpursIQ
@SpursIQSep 11
Replying to @SpursIQ
Van Hecke leads Spurs with 23 final-third entries. Mateus Fernandes leads with five passes into the box in just 142 minutes. Tel leads with 20 box touches, but all 20 came outside the central lane.
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Hopeful for a Fernandes start tomorrow. He can unlock stubborn defenses with his passing.
SpursIQ
@SpursIQSep 11
Replying to @SpursIQ
Van Hecke leads Spurs with 23 final-third entries. Mateus Fernandes leads with five passes into the box in just 142 minutes. Tel leads with 20 box touches, but all 20 came outside the central lane.
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Just 15% of Spurs’ box touches have come in the central lane across their first three league games, the lowest share in the league. Across the league, that figure is 41%. Here’s what else stands out in the numbers behind Spurs’ goalless start (thread):
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Only three games, but those are the patterns so far. Full analysis here: spursiq.substack.com/p/spurs…
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Van Hecke leads Spurs with 23 final-third entries. Mateus Fernandes leads with five passes into the box in just 142 minutes. Tel leads with 20 box touches, but all 20 came outside the central lane.
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The contrast is clear in Spurs’ league rankings after three games: - 6th for Passes into the final third - 7th for completed passes into the box. - 19th for open-play xG. They’re reaching attacking areas more often than their chance creation ranking would suggest.
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And two-thirds of that corner xG came from a single chance: Van de Ven’s header at Forest. That header was worth 0.52 xG. The other six shots from corners contributed 0.26 combined.
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Spurs have taken more corners than any other Premier League side across the first three games: 22. Those corners have produced seven shots worth 0.78 xG, leaving Spurs tenth in the league for xG per corner. And most of that threat came from one chance...
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Against Forest’s our xG total hides the open-play shortage Spurs recorded 1.06 xG at Forest, slightly more than the 1.04 against Newcastle. But open-play xG fell from 0.79 to 0.35. Set plays supplied 67% of the total at Forest, where Spurs finished without a shot on target.
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