$ASTS: 🇯🇵 Coming to Japan in Q4 2026

$ASTS: Will try to fire up a space later to discuss the latest PR from the company. There’s many takeaways 🔥

$ASTS: 🚨 INTERMITTENT SERVICE TO BEGIN IN KEY MARKETS BEFORE YEAR END AST SpaceMobile discloses that it will be using 55MHz of cellular spectrum in addition to 45MHz of MSS from Ligado - a total of 100MHz in the USA 👀 “AST SpaceMobile combines strategic partner operators’ spectrum with access to mobile satellite services (MSS) spectrum, targeting approximately 100 MHz of access in the United States.”

$ASTS: 🚨ROTH CAPITAL REITERATES $108 PRICE TARGET AND BUY RATING ASTS: Partner Approach Is Less Spectrum Intensive & Attractive to Sovereign Models ASTS has come under significant pressure (down 69% since late May; Nasdaq (COMP) down 3%) around the perceived Starlink competitive threat. More recently, this has been exacerbated by SpaceX (SPCX-NC) spectrum-hording events ($8B Grain acquisition). We believe this misses the point, as SPCX requires significant spectrum for direct competition with Tier 1 MNOs, while ASTS embraces a neutral partnership role. Additionally, we believe that neutral status for sovereign constellations continues to favor ASTS as SPCX Ukrainian disruption drives additional business to ASTS. With commercialization still targeting "early 2027," our rating on ASTS remains Buy, with expected near-term volatility. Still tracking to "early 2027": Despite recent reports and some launch slippage, ASTS continues to broadly track to an "early 2027" constellation commercialization. Bluebirds 14-16 have arrived at Cape Canaveral for launch, while bluebirds 17-50 are in some form of production. Meanwhile, the launch schedule remains more fluid and has generally lagged expectations. At present, ASTS is heavily dependent on SpaceX's Falcon-9 through year end, before Blue Origin's New Glenn 3 is expected to return to the launch pad. ASTS also remains engaged and in qualification with multiple other launch vehicles. Longer term, we believe that launch vehicle diversity is key to sustaining constellation expansion beyond the base 45 satellites required for commercialization. Overall, the ASTS constellation is "when, not if," and we highlight recent performance tests to validate constellation viability. Spectrum is nice, partnerships are better: Post SpaceX/Starlink's disclosure to acquire 14MHz of low-band spectrum from Grain Management for $8B (~$1.75 per MHz/pop), the market and investor concerns have heightened around the importance and requirement for spectrum. This provides SPCX with ~80MHz of aggregate spectrum (14MHz, low-band, 65 MHz mid-band). Lost in the discussion are the different models and go-to-market approaches; ASTS in partnership with 60+ MNOs (Mobile Network Operators) with 3B+ subs; and Starlink with a full-frontal competitive assault on traditional MNOs. Importantly, the average Tier 1 US carrier has over 300MHz of spectrum for terrestrial mobile services in comparison to 80MHz for Starlink. Additionally, each US MNO has 70k+ cell sites vs Starlink's constellation that will have 15k satellites servicing the globe (<1000 over the US at any point in time. Note: The US is ~6% of global landmass). The bottom line is that Starlink has significantly less capacity (<5% in our estimation) due to frequency reuse to support a large subscriber base for primary services, vs complementary satellite coverage to plug in terrestrial coverage gaps as targeted by ASTS. Sovereign constellations and other issues: ASTS continues to established itself as a unique and reliable neutral third-party partner for terrestrial MNOs and governmental organizations. While ASTS's 60+ MNOs with 3B+ subs validates this approach, we continue to see increasing opportunities as a prominent provider of dedicated sovereign constellations. Similar to the Japanese J-LEO constellation (The Rakutan-AST SpaceMobile JV subsidized by the Japanese Ministry of Communications to the tune of 150 billion yen (approximately $926 million)), we believe a LEO arms race for sovereign capacity in G-20 and other countries, particularly in the Mideast, could emerge in 2027+. Given recent events around Starlink/Starshield degrading Ukrainian communications infrastructure during Russian drone attacks, we believe that ASTS's position as a neutral third-party leader continues to be solidified. We believe SPCX actions continue to drive business (sovereign constellations, MNOs, government entities) to ASTS and other non-SpaceX vendors such as Gogo (GOGO-Buy). We maintain our Buy rating and believe investor sentiment will shift with continued manufacturing milestones, launches, and ultimate commercialization in 2027.