The diabetes wave: already exceeding the models New-onset diabetes is one of the most consistent findings in the entire literature - 12 of 14 studies found COVID significantly associated with it, with risk increases of 11% to 276%. And the population-level data are striking: an interrupted time-series analysis in Estonia found that newly diagnosed type 2 diabetes exceeded model-based projections during the pandemic (p = 1.84 × 10⁻⁸⁰). 🩸 The mechanism is direct - SARS-CoV-2 infects pancreatic β-cells via ACE2 - so this isn't just "people gained weight during lockdown." It's a viral effect, and it's already bending the population curve upward. Diabetes is a lifelong diagnosis, so this wave doesn't plateau so much as permanently reset the baseline. 📈

The kidney wave: the silent one The kidney is the organ people forget, and it's a perfect example of delayed damage. Acute kidney injury hits ~19% of hospitalized patients, but the real story is what happens after: survivors show steeper long-term decline in kidney function (eGFR), higher risk of end-stage kidney disease, and more "major adverse kidney events" - even in people who were never hospitalized. 🫘 The insidious part: kidney function loss is initially asymptomatic. People don't feel their eGFR dropping until it's advanced. So the kidney wave is building invisibly right now, and because kidney disease progresses over years, its plateau is likely 5–15 years out - arriving as a wave of dialysis and transplant need in the 2030s. ⏳

The cardiovascular wave: already here, not fading This is the biggest and most immediate signal. The US saw 228,524 excess cardiovascular deaths from 2020–2022 - a 9% excess that erased nearly a decade of progress. And a 2025 update found that age-adjusted cardiac mortality remained above pre-pandemic projections through 2024, especially in the elderly. 📊 This isn't a spike that's resolving. It's a persistently elevated baseline - and because COVID survivors carry a 63% higher risk of cardiovascular events at 12 months (persisting at 2 years), the wave keeps getting fed, sustained. ❤️