Intrinsic valuations, market commentary and portfolio insights with a long term view by Andrej Pajovic, CFA.
New York, USA
Joined March 2026
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A small, debt free company from upstate New York doubled its backlog. Is $TAYD a buy?
Here is the full breakdown and analysis: sortinoresearch.substack.com…
Sneak peek: in the last seven reports, the stock fell six times on its backlog dropped, even when sales hit records.
$CRWV the yield on their 2032 bond hit 15% today, an all time high. The stock fell 16% in a day. I wanted to look deeper to understand what this means for the whole AI story, and how it could potentially ripple down the road.
Lastly: duration mismatch. CoreWeave signs long leases with landlords, but customer contracts are shorter. If there's an overbuild and hyperscalers don't renew, the buildings still have to be paid for but they can't be reused for something else that easily.
Lastly: Duration mismatch. CoreWeave signed long term leases with their landlords and builders, but contracts with their customers are shorter in nature. Question becomes what happens if there is an overbuild or demand is not just there and those hyperscale's do not renew their contracts?
So to sum it up: If a company like CoreWeave can't raise money or borrow for whatever reason, it's effect will ripple through the AI story. I'm not saying AI bursts and disappears, but I think it gets repriced. And the ones hit hardest in my opinion would be builders and landlords such as $APLD or $CORZ just because a specialized AI building with one main tenant isn't easy to re-rent overnight.
Today QXO dropped more than 10% intraday to reach a 52 week low just bellow $11. Few things caused this. While RBC maintained its outperform rating, it cut its price target to $18 from $27. This lines up closely to valuation framework I laid out a couple of months ago. Between October tax loss harvesting, a raising 10y yield, higher for longer interest rates and broader sector weakness, the downward pressure makes sense near term. Upcoming quarterly results will be the first real test, offering us a look at consolidated numbers from all their acquisitions, including TopBuild. If margins don’t show improvement, and top line misses on expectations, this could easily go even lower. Nevertheless for those who believe in Jacobs and his capabilities to execute this may turn out to be a good entry point. As for me, I continue to sell puts, collect premiums and successfully reducing my avg. cost basis. $QXO