TROPICAL UPDATE: We now have two areas from the NHC as of Monday afternoon. Odds for development have increased to 60% for Invest 94L (pictured on the right). Here are my thoughts as of Monday: 1. Invest 94L (an area we are investigating) is currently moving west across the Atlantic and firing up a little core of storms this afternoon. It does have increasing potential of becoming a named storm in time, especially when over warmer water and better atmospheric ingredients. Next names are "Nadine" and "Oscar." 2. The long-range track for Invest 94L is honestly a mess and models are split. Some have it being picked up north into the Atlantic and never to be heard from again (European and Canadian models). Obviously, that would be the best case scenario! Others have it dipping into the Caribbean (AI European and some American ensemble members). Until all or the majority of these models agree, it's too early to know long-term where it will go. I expect to see some progress though on the models coming together over the next few days. I would closely monitor the forecast if you have cruises or trips planned to the Caribbean over the next 2 weeks, just in case. 3. The new area in the Caribbean is not a threat to Florida at the present time. I expect it to hook west into Central America over the next week. In the meantime Florida, keep enjoying some of this sunny Fall weather with a little cooler and drier air ahead. *If* anything ever becomes a threat to Florida, I'll immediately let you know without the hype and just the facts. Thanks everyone! - Matt Devitt WINK Weather