Scorecard, week of Oct 12. Pinned call, 80k doesn't break: MISS. Thursday printed 79,676. Today's red-week call: HIT. $BTC closed the week at 82,007 on Coinbase, under last Sunday's 83,678, and 82,831 never traded. New call for this week: no daily close under 79,676. Graded here next Sunday.

$BTC closed last week red. Two public companies bought 4,312 bitcoin straight through it: Strive 4,045 at ~$82.8k, Strategy 267 at $82.9k. Who's on the other side of that bid?

$BTC tagged 83,076 just after midnight PT and spent the morning walking back to where the week opened, 82,007. Last week went red and still couldn't hold under 80k. Does this week finally break the range, or is it more chop?

The week on one chart

Taking a side on tonight's weekly close: $BTC finishes the week red. It closed last Sunday at 83,678, and the 11 AM hourly closed 81,089 on Coinbase. A push through Friday's 82,831 high before 5 PM PT changes my mind. Where do you think it closes?

Last Sunday $BTC closed the week at 83,678 on Coinbase. Friday closed at 81,500. The weekly candle closes Sunday at 5 PM PT. Where does it land?

Follow-up on Thursday's miss. I said only a close under 79,676 makes it a real break. Coinbase closed Friday at 81,500. The weekly call stays a miss. The breakdown still hasn't shown up.

I called it wrong. I said $BTC wouldn't lose 80k this week, and Coinbase printed 79,676.02 at 6:55 AM PT. That goes on the scorecard as a miss. The next level I'm watching is 79,676 and here's why: the 6 AM hour closed back at 80,104, so a close under today's low is what turns this wick into a real break.

$7.9B. That's what clients poured into BlackRock's bitcoin + ether funds last quarter. First half of the year? About $2.2B walked out. One quarter wiped out six months of selling. It dropped this morning, buried in an earnings release. Price is chopping. The big money already voted. Next quarter bigger or smaller? $BTC

September CPI drops tomorrow at 5:30 AM PT. $BTC is sitting around $83k going in. How does it take the print?

Weekly call check-in. I said $BTC doesn't lose 80k this week. Monday's Coinbase low was 80,927. It was back above 83k by evening. Held by about $900. Result posts Sunday.

Coinbase traded about 1,600 $BTC on Saturday. Thursday's flush traded about 8,600. Five times the volume. Weekend candles get drawn on thin books. I read them. I just don't give them much weight.

$BTC gave back ~$1.7k from the overnight high into the US open. Still ~$4k above 78.5k, the level I actually care about. This morning's drip is noise next to Wednesday's CPI print.

My call for this week: $BTC doesn't lose 80k and doesn't close above 87k. Range, probably boring. I'll post the result next Sunday, hit or miss, so you can hold me to it.

Unpopular take: $BTC going from 86.5k to 83.8k in a week isn't a crash. It's a range doing range things. Thursday's 80.3k wick looked scary, then Friday closed back above 82.5k. Boring is the bullish part.

Hard 72,186 only answers to a daily close. $BTC sits right at $83k as the weekly close nears. Soft 78,500 is an alert, not an exit. Soft alone ≠ exit.

$BTC has not tagged Soft 78,500 all month. Soft alone ≠ exit. Hard 72,186 only matters on a daily close.

$BTC is still chopping under $83k. Soft 78,500 is my alert, roughly $4k below spot. Soft alone ≠ exit. The plan only ends if a day closes under Hard 72,186. Not financial advice. For educational purposes only.

Soft 78,500 stayed untouched when $BTC dipped to $80.3k on Thursday. An alert asks for a closer look, nothing more. Soft alone ≠ exit. Hard 72,186 is the line, and only a daily close counts. Not financial advice. For educational purposes only.