Independent Meteorologist Michael Mojarro, A trusted source for Southern California microclimate weather forecast for 25years&counting!
Palm Springs, CA
Joined September 2012
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SoCalWeather.net retweeted
**1st Forecast Possible Rain&Mountain Snow Amounts 9pm Tuesday-6pm Thursday **
An early season Alaskan winter storm is expected to impact SoCal between Tuesday night and Thursday. Computers have been consistently increasing possible rain amounts with this system as it may tap into some tropical moisture from another dying Hurricane off Baja and our warm waters. This combined with cold air in the storm could bring scattered Thunderstorms as well. Looking to be a pretty significant winter storm for October. Snow leveps will start near 9000ft then bottom out near 6000ft Thursday during the colder portion of the storm. Flooding in rescent burn scars looks possible so residents there need to pay close attention in coming days!
-West of Mountains-
SB/Ventura County: .50-1.50"+
LA/OC: .75-2"
IE: .50-1"
SD: .25-1"
-Mountains-
Rain: 1-3"+
Snow:
1-2ft abv 9000ft
6-12"+ abv 8000ft
1-3" abv 7000ft
Dusting abv 6000ft
-Deserts-
High: .25-.75"
Low: .10-.25"+
#CAwx #Rain #Snow #ElNino #Thunderstorms #Floods #LosAngeles #Riverside #BigBear #SabDiego
**A few showers possible inland today, weakening Santa Anas and widespread rain mid next week**
Very interesting weather set up this morning. Although weakening Santa Anas continue , A subtropical low to pur south has drawn uo moisture into San Diego county and our deserts this morning and actually brought a Thunderstorm and some sprinkles to San Diego this morning. Clouds and sprinkles will continue to be possible in those areas today but with dry air at surface most rain won't reach the ground. Santa Ana winds are pretty much over with just some lingering gust in favored areas.
Highs will cool down back to normal by tomorrow and eventually below normal Monday with 70s&80s west of the mountains. All eyes on another October winter storm next week with widespread rain and mountain snow expected for the region Wednesday-Thursday. Current thinking is .25-1" of rain possible west of the mountains with snow levels between 6000-8000ft with a good shot of some wet October snow around Big Bear by Thursday. Highs will fall to 10-15degrees below normal only in the 60s for most areas so get tjose jackets ready more details to come!
#CAwx #Rain #Snow #Fall #LosAngeles #SanDiego #BigBear #Temecula
**Moderate-Strong Santa Ana Winds expected through tomorrow, rain returns next week**
Now looking like the 1st Santa Ana winds of season will be a Moderate-Strong event later today through tomorrow, especially in LA county with winds in favored areas gusting up to 70mph, but most areas will see gust in the 30-50mph range over and west of our mountains. Fire danger looks high in LA county but much less extreme everywhere else where heavy rains fell a few days ago keeping vegetation moist. High will be 10+ degrees above normal west of the mountains with 80s&90s but near normal in our mountains and deserts thanks to cold air advection .
Look for winds to die down Friday afternoon and for cooler, calmer conditions this weekend. Long range continues to show a major pattern shift next week with a cold Alaskan trough bringing chances of rain and mountain snow between Tuesday &Wednesday next week as well as high well below normal as typical October weather continues.
#CAwx #SantaAnaWinds #Rain #Snow #LosAngeles #BigBear #SanDiego
**Weak-Moderate Santa Ana Winds through Tomorrow, Storm with rain possible next week**
Our departing trough if low pressure combined with building high pressure will lead to warming and Weak Santa Ana winds gusting up to 50mph in favored areas through Thursday. Highs west of the mountains will be about 5-10+ degrees above normal but cold air advection will keep the mountains and deserts below normal. Look for a nice weekend with highs slightly above normal.
Looking ahead most computers show a pattern shift with a cold Alaskan trough moving into the region between Tuesday and Wednesday next week with rain and mountain snow as well as more well below normal Fall temperatures. Still too far out for amounts but they look descent for an October storm. Overall typical October weather, stay updated!
#CAwx #Rain #Snow #SantaAnaWinds #LosAngeles #BigBear #SanDiego
There could be a bit of subtropical moisture mainly over our mountains and deserts this weekend with a few high based showers but activity shoukd be isolated
SoCalWeather.net retweeted
The world’s leading seasonal forecast models have never shown California this wet, not even in 1997–98.
Europe’s Copernicus climate service (C3S) just released its October outlook, combining 10 seasonal forecast models from 9 weather agencies. The C3S average calls for 156% of normal precipitation statewide this Dec–Feb, the wettest California winter forecast these models have produced, wetter even than their reruns of the 1997–98 super El Niño.
Out of 454 total model members, only 8% show a drier-than-average Dec–Feb statewide, while about 13% are explicitly forecasting California’s wettest winter on record. A record-wet winter is now more likely than a dry one.
This far out, forecasts are about odds, not certainties. But 9 in 10 runs come in at or above normal, and even the driest 10% of runs average 88% of normal. The odds have never leaned this heavily toward an exceptionally wet winter, though a below-normal winter is still possible, but extremely unlikely.
SoCalWeather.net retweeted
From Extreme Heat to highs in the 70s -- we are noticeably cooler. 4 days ago Palm Springs was 109 degrees! Today was 34 degrees cooler! Meteorologist @katieboerTV says if you haven't already grabbed the jacket--you'll definitely want one tomorrow morning when lows fall into the
SoCalWeather.net retweeted
Cool and unsettled weather continues across Southern California today as a cold low-pressure system moves in from the northwest. This will bring scattered light showers throughout the day, with the snow level currently at about 9,000 feet. Additional rainfall amounts of around a tenth of an inch are possible, with localized amounts up to a quarter inch possible near any thunderstorms this afternoon.
As temperatures cool this evening, the snow level may lower to around 7,000 feet, which may bring our first dusting of the season up at resort level, possibly even a few flurries overnight around Big Bear. San Gorgonio Peak has already received a couple of inches above 10,000 feet.
This trough will slide east tomorrow, with high pressure building in through the end of the week for drier conditions and gradually warmer temperatures. We may also experience a mild offshore flow later in the week, but strong Santa Anas are not expected at this time.
Rainfall totals over the past 72 hrs. were highly variable, impressive in some areas, not so much in others. The heaviest rain fell from Orange County east and south, with lesser amounts north and west towards LA County.
Longer-range forecasts look pretty dry across SoCal for the remainder of the month, with some models advertising wet weather returning around the end of the month. But that's too far out for any level of confidence. Enjoy the cooler weather at last and have a great week!
**Scattered Showers to continue through tomorrow morning with mountain snow above 6500ft tonight **
An unusually cold Alaskan trough and a cutoff low will continue scattered showers over and west if the mountains through tomorrow morning. Rain amounts should be mostly vunder .25".l although Temecula-Hemwt has already seen almost .50" so there is sone heavier showers developing.. Snow levels currently near 8500ft will fall to 6000-7000ft tonight with a dusting-1" of snow possible for Big Bear with maybe a bit more at resorts. Look for highs today and tomorrow to be 10-15 degrees below normal with 60s&70s overall .
Tropical storm Rachel dropped anywhere from 1-3" of rain in San Diego county, the IE and the Coachella valley. Only light amounts fell in LA with a sharp cutoff in rainfall. Forecast was about spot on except slightly lower amounts in LA. Some flooding occurred in the Coachella valley as well as wind damages in spots from Thunderstorms .
SoCalWeather.net retweeted
Some preliminary Rainfall totals through 5am this morning - Rainfall from Rachel's Tropical remnant was focused on Southern/Eastern portions of #SoCal.
The region will have a chance for more rainfall this evening through tomorrow as an upper Trough moves through the area. #CAwx
Scattered showers will continue tonight before the main batch of heavy rain which can be seen on Radar approaching San Diego moves overhead between 10pm tonight and 12pm tomorrow when torrential rain, winds and Thunderstorms will cover the entire region. Heaviest rain amounts expected continue to look like the south and eastern IE and our low deserts/Coachella valley.
#CAwx #Rachel #TropicalStormRachel #Rain #Thunderstorms #SanDiego #Temecula #PalmSprings
The 1st batch of showers and Thunderstorms from Tropical Storm Rachel is already moving into San Diego county and will continue to spread North through the afternoon.
#CAwx #Rain #Thubderstorms #TropicalStormMarie
#SanDiego