Joined May 2017
BREAKING: Trump administration considers large-scale strikes on Iran's Kharg Island, which handles around 90% of Iran's oil exports, to force concessions on the nuclear program and the Strait of Hormuz before the November 3 midterms, per senior US sources cited by Israel Hayom. The options include massive precision strikes on oil storage tanks, oil pipelines and loading facilities on the island, as well as military installations there and elsewhere. Trump discussed them with advisers at the Defense Department and the CIA. The sources say fears of electoral losses are pushing Trump to "seek a foreign policy achievement before the midterms." Strikes on Pickaxe Mountain remain on the table in parallel, with Kharg not cancelling the other out. Iran has already warned that "All oil, economic and energy infrastructure throughout the region that own US stocks or cooperate with the US will be immediately destroyed and turned into a pile of ashes," in return.
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$SOXX losing steam already. Not looking good.
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$SOXX Bull trap is getting set up here. Short this clunker for a nice profit this week. Easy money
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Smart Alpha retweeted
Another Neocloud IPO is about to flop after $MSFT pulled out of a delayed datacenter project. This is why backlog and RPO numbers aren’t worth the paper they’re printed on.
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Lets just hope for Timmy's sake that he listened and got out. Some of us work in a job that prevents us from getting a blue check but we can see the flow way earlier.
Ok I tried my best. Stay in and witness the carnage. You have no idea what's coming.
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Smart Alpha retweeted
New: Accenture has told employees it will only fund $29 per month of Claude use. Meaning that employees who often spend as much as $1,000 a month are now scrambling to find ways to keep access to the tool. A sign of the continuing crack down of AI 404media.co/accenture-tells-…
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Smart Alpha retweeted
rumours that VARA AI fund is getting blown up Here are its holdings lol
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THE ENRON PLAYBOOK IS PLAYING OUT AGAIN. I WARNED YOU - THE HOUSE OF CARDS IS COLLAPSING. $NBIS $ORCLE $CRWV $NVDA
THE ENRON PLAYBOOK… BUT THIS TIME IT’S AI $NVDA $CRWV $MSFT $AMZN $GOOG $META This chart from Morgan Stanley caught my attention. Here’s what is happening in simple terms. Imagine a new AI company wants to buy $10 billion of NVIDIA GPUs. But that company doesn't have $10 billion. So it borrows money to buy NVIDIA's GPUs. The GPUs are then EXPECTED to generate enough money from customers to pay off that debt. But NVIDIA isn't necessarily just the seller. NVIDIA can also invest in the companies buying its own chips and GPUs, participate in their economics, and help support the financing. That means NVIDIA can have a financial interest in the very companies responsible for buying its own products! And that's the part that reminds me of Enron. Enron used complicated financial arrangements and separate companies to move money and risk around its business, making its financial position look healthier than it really was. I'm NOT saying NVIDIA is committing fraud. But the question is worth asking If NVIDIA helps finance the ecosystem that buys NVIDIA's own GPUs... How much of the incredible AI spending is coming from genuine customer demand - and how much is being fueled by financing? Because there's a HUGE difference between a customer buying $10B of GPUs with cash... and a customer borrowing $10B to buy them and hoping future AI revenue pays the bill. HOUSE OF CARDS
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AI bubble is cooked
One reason for the skepticism: Anthropic token prices have tumbled to all time low
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$CRWV pricing chart is showing classic titty up pattern.
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$CRWV bankruptcy means the whole AI complex comes down. Semis $SOXX will be the hardest hit since they are commodity cyclical stocks at peak earnings.
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$CRWV bonds are screaming bankruptcy. This is going to zero. • $CRWV -15% • $NBIS -10% • $IREN -10% • $HUT -9% • $CIFR -8%
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$MU a cyclical commodity stock at its peak earning will see both multiple and earning contraction. Long $CXMT
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Smart Alpha retweeted
Amazing all the Ai Bros trying to dispute this when the numbers are from Bain as a 2031 time point to justify current spending trends for a positive return on actual Ai investment vs previous cloud. The numbers aren’t fake, they’re real. Now over $4 trillion in debt and future liabilities with most added just this year and even more next year. Revenue doesn’t equal income. The 7-8% interest on just $1.5 trillion of debt is $120 billion of lost net income per year between the 5. Combined these companies only had $440 net income the past 4 quarters. Interest expenses alone will wipe out 25% of their current net income. Add in the new liabilities and equally painful operating expenses tied to those liabilities and that net income goes negative fast without HUGE increases in revenue. $4 trillion of liabilities averaged over 15 years is $300 billion/year across the five and we’re already at negative income just on current spending, not including the ramp up over the next 3 years. Then there’s the 5 year GPU replacement time and it all starts over. $GOOG $META $MSFT $AMZN $ORCL
The combined revenue needed for $ORCL $MSFT $AMZN $META and $GOOG to breakeven on Ai investment in the next 4 years (2031) is $7.9 trillion. Their current revenue is $1.9 trillion. 5 companies need to increase their revenue roughly 400% to avoid losses. They need to do it while competing on price wars to the bottom or face bankruptcy. To get from $500 billion to $2 trillion took 10 years and 30% inflation. Now they need to move from $1.5 trillion added in 10 years to $6 trillion (4x) in 4 years (820% FASTER growth rate over the period). We haven’t seen anything on the inflation coming from 5 companies that control the entire economy. 20% of GDP in 2031. $TLT
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Smart Alpha retweeted
Woopsie. OpenAI tells Lordstown, Ohio county officials it’s cancelled plans for a multi-gigawatt data center at the Foxconn site. $ORCL $AMD 1. SoftBank’s written admission to Lordstown officials Lordstown council members specifically asked whether a full-scale data center was planned. SoftBank’s response described a small proof-of-concept installation using existing infrastructure. It also stated: “No, we are not building a large-scale data center at the Lordstown facility.”
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$SOXS going to the moon faster than Elon.
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Smart Alpha retweeted
Replying to @zerohedge
AI will be blood bath tomm. Who knew MU will take the whole thing down.
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Smart Alpha retweeted
I think they are scam pumping US stock indices with call options so that AI bubble cos can tap equity to repay creditors. MasaPonzi #SoftBank wrote the playbook on this move. $CRWV has initiated a ~$3.1 billion ATM. $GOOG already raised. Others will follow.
🦔Oracle sent a force majeure notice on Project Jupiter, its AI data center in New Mexico built for the $400 billion Stargate deal with OpenAI. The campus needs a 17-mile gas pipeline to power its Bloom Energy fuel cells. New Mexico denied the pipeline permits twice. Oracle wants the right to delay payments if the site misses its 2028 opening. $18 billion in project loans are at 89 to 91 cents on the dollar. ORCL fell 5%. My Take Force majeure is for earthquakes and wars. Oracle filed one over a gas permit they got denied twice. A company with $167 billion in debt and a junk-adjacent credit rating just told its development partner it might not pay on time. I think Oracle's balance sheet is worse than the market has priced in, and this notice is the first public admission. Twenty banks lent $18 billion for this project and they can't move the debt. Santander and Jefferies are stuck with more than they planned to hold. That loan assumed Oracle's backlog converts to revenue on schedule, but half the backlog is OpenAI, a company that burns cash faster than it earns it. SemiAnalysis has first power at this site in 2029. The banks underwrote 2028. I think the AI infrastructure bet cracks here first, in the loan market, before it ever shows up in stock prices, and the banks who funded the construction are the ones left with the bill. Hedgie🤗
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Oracle force majeure is really bad for semis. None of those chips/memories will get delivered. Long $SOXS
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