Boot straps for thee, too big to fail for me.
Hampton, VA
Joined December 2021
- Tweets22.4K
- Following665
- Followers761
- Likes29.6K
Travis Adams retweeted
Workers are overtaxed and 'double-billed': they pay tax on income, which funds public goods that raise their rent.
The late economist Fred Foldvary said this is a major cause of income inequality and why we should tax land instead of wages.
Travis Adams retweeted
In 1978 boomers became the majority voting bloc in the country. The first 18 year olds to be able to vote. They held this title until 2016. They were the majority in the house until last year, and the majority of the senate until 2023.
In that time they have radically changed the demographics of America by supporting immigration policies. They were the first generation to embrace no fault divorce and half of them broke their childrenās homes. One third of my generation was aborted. They created a legal and corporate system hostile to their sons. But the worst thing they did is destroy the economy.
They were handed one of the most prosperous economies the world has ever seen, and they created untold levels of debt. The modest expansions in gdp are overshadowed by the ballooning debt. Their social programs were all paid for by the taxes of their children and grand children. 50x fold increase in debt, 60x increase in unfunded liabilities, 30x increase in interest payments which now exceeds national defense. Less than a 1/3 of boomers plan to leave an inheritance. The belief that the young should sacrifice even a dime more to pay for their retirements is absurd.
But hey, at least theyāre apologetic and conciliatory about it.
Travis Adams retweeted
This is the ultimate midwit healthcare take.
No, 32 countries have not āfigured outā universal healthcare.
The UK has āfreeā healthcare, and roughly 1 in 3 cancer patients in England still fail to start treatment within 62 days of urgent referral.
Canada has āfreeā healthcare, and the median wait for neurosurgical treatment is around a year.
Australia has āfreeā healthcare, and over half the country still buys private insurance despite paying for a public universal system with their taxes.
Switzerland has universal coverage, because residents are required to buy private insurance. There is no government system where benevolent bureaucrats tuck you in at night with a warm blanket and an MRI appointment.
The actual lesson from other wealthy countries is not āthey figured it out.ā
Americaās system has huge problems. Our prices are insane, insurance markets are distorted, and hospital systems are cartelized. Our regulations make care more expensive than it needs to be.
Yet we still guarantee access to even the 8% who donāt have coverage. We give easy routes to qualify for medicaid for those with disabilities.
Pretending the rest of the world solved healthcare because they slapped the word āuniversalā on a rationing scheme is not analysis.
It is bumper sticker policy for people who think access means having a card in your wallet while you wait a year to see the doctor you need.
Travis Adams retweeted
Discovering thereās an actual technique to tuck a shirt explains a lot
xitter.cf/vixen_8001/status/2023ā¦
Travis Adams retweeted
Itās important that you understand what happened last night.
Last night, Stephen Colbert interviewed Democratic Texas Senate candidate James Talarico, a candidate who, by all accounts, is on track in the polls to flip Texas blue.
In response, Trumpās FCC reportedly threatened CBS if the interview aired.
CBS caved and pulled the segment, citing āfinancial reasons.ā
In modern American history, no president has been more hostile to free speech than Donald Trump.
But censorship always backfires.
Hereās the full segment Trump didnāt want you to see.
Travis Adams retweeted
This form is effectively blocked at every turn in the U.S.
Letās ignore zoning, code for now and just talk about development finance. For most projects that is 2 conversations - the construction loan that gets you to a filled building & āpermā debt that gets you to an acceptable yield.
Construction loans are riskier. So the interest rate (and fees) reflect that. Meanwhile many lenders have a niche in what they mostly lend one. This one does a lot of medical. That one multifamily. This one strip centers. And so on. Know what niche no construction lenders like? Small mixed use buildings. Not one.
So the only option for this type is a local oriented bank. Which means your list of possible lenders has shrunk to (maybe) 3 that will actually look at this kind of deal with any real interest. And since itās an āatypical productā expect especially conservative underwriting and a heftier than normal amount of equity (cash) being required.
What this means practically is you need a unicorn property that shows positive cash flow after getting the rent assumption beaten to death. Or to throw an obscene amount of equity into the project. Probably both. And of course if youāre doing small development itās because you have tons of capital, right?
Now - letās say you find a unicorn lender. The next obstacle is the permanent financing. Because you wonāt really make any money (or get some of that obscene equity amount back) until you can get out of that construction loan via refinance.
Except there is no product for long amortization loans on something like this. If itās multifamily you have a robust capital market via the GSEs offering low rate, 30 year loans. Often with long interest only periods, attractive debt ratio requirements, and all non-recourse. So weāre back to a short list of area banks with 20 year amortizations, higher debt coverage requirements, less of your own money back plus a personal guaranty that puts your home & all your assets on the hook.
Once you understand how this works in practice itās no wonder these donāt get built. You basically need to be a non-pragmatic wealthy person doing this as a vanity project with some potential upside. Far easier to just go build garden apartments wherever the land becomes cheap enough while still being a viable commute. Theyāll lend you money on those easy.
Travis Adams retweeted
Social Security is running out of money, and the consequences will be severe:
By 2032, āmore than 70 million beneficiaries will face a 24% benefit cut.
For a typical newly retired couple, thatās an $18,400 annual benefit cut.ā
Travis Adams retweeted
āThe problem with Total Boomer Luxury Communism is that at some point you run out of Millennialsā money.ā
ā Mecha-Thatcher, probably
Travis Adams retweeted
Mr Beast lined up one person from each age 1-100 and had them race to a finish line, and the overhead camera is an oddly beautiful data visualization of speed by age.
Travis Adams retweeted
One of the biggest reasons neighborhoods like this exist is that families value good schools more than walkable coffee shops
If downtowns donāt have good local schools ā¦ their walkability vanishes for families. And the City becomes a place only for the young or childless
Travis Adams retweeted
A lot of what is happening now is Kristi Noem marginalized Tom Homan and the head of Border Patrol because those two prioritized deportations of criminals and gang members. Noem and Corey Lewandowski wanted broad, public round-ups without prioritizing the illegal aliens. They have bypassed Homan and the head of Border Patrol and elevated Greg Bovino because they want the public confrontations and displays. And that's not the progressive press reporting this. That's the conservative Fox News, New York Post, and Washington Examiner:
foxnews.com/us/ice-leadershiā¦
nypost.com/2025/12/11/us-newā¦
washingtonexaminer.com/news/ā¦
It is not just Tim Walz and Jacob Frey driving tensions. It is a policy choice made by the Secretary of Homeland Security and those around her because they thought it would make for great coverage.
Travis Adams retweeted
GOV: We have a housing crisis. Prices are too high.
ME: I agree. Supply is too low.
GOV: So we have a plan. Weāre going to subsidize demand.
ME: ā¦What does that mean?
GOV: Weāre going to give people money to buy houses.
ME: But there aren't enough houses.
GOV: Right. So weāll help them bid harder.
ME: If you have 10 people fighting for 1 house, and you give them all cash... the price just goes up.
GOV: Then weāll give them more cash.
ME: Thatās not a solution. Thatās inflation.
GOV: Itās "First Time Homebuyer Assistance."
ME: Okay, letās back up. Why are houses so expensive in the first place?
GOV: Because we made them the perfect investment vehicle.
ME: How?
GOV: First, the 30-year fixed mortgage.
ME: Thatās standard, right?
GOV: Only in America. In other countries, rates float. Here, you can lock in a low rate for three decades.
ME: Why would a bank take that risk? If inflation goes up, they lose money.
GOV: Banks donāt take the risk. They sell the loan to us.
ME: To the government?
GOV: To Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. We guarantee the liquidity.
ME: So the taxpayer subsidizes the risk so I can have cheap leverage?
GOV: Correct.
ME: And then I get to deduct the interest?
GOV: Only on the first $750,000 of debt.
ME: That seems... high.
GOV: It used to be a million. We trimmed it.
ME: But wait. If I rent, can I deduct my rent?
GOV: No.
ME: If I buy a small business, can I deduct the interest on the loan?
GOV: Itās complicated.
ME: But if I buy a giant house, I definitely can?
GOV: Absolutely. We wrote it into the tax code.
ME: So youāre paying me to borrow money to buy a bigger house than I need.
GOV: Weāre "incentivizing ownership."
ME: What happens when I sell?
GOV: The Capital Gains Exclusion!
ME: How does that work?
GOV: If you sell a stock for a $500,000 profit, you pay taxes.
ME: Roughly 20%.
GOV: If you sell your house for a $500,000 profit?
ME: What do I pay?
GOV: Zero.
ME: Zero tax?
GOV: As long as you lived there for two years.
ME: So housing is the only asset class where I get subsidized 30-year leverage and tax-free profits?
GOV: Pretty sweet deal, right?
ME: So you turned shelter into a speculative financial asset.
GOV: We call it "Generational Wealth."
ME: Okay, so demand is juiced to the moon. Can we at least build more supply to bring prices down?
GOV: Oh, absolutely not.
ME: Why?
GOV: Zoning.
ME: I own land. Can I build a duplex?
GOV: Illegal. Single-family only.
ME: Can I build a granny flat?
GOV: Only if you provide two parking spots and pass a shadow study.
ME: So you made it illegal to build cheaper housing?
GOV: We protect "Neighborhood Character."
ME: But you spend billions on roads and utilities for the suburbs.
GOV: Infrastructure investment.
ME: So you subsidize the expensive sprawl, but ban the cheap density?
GOV: Now youāre getting it.
ME: This system seems designed to keep prices high.
GOV: It is.
ME: But you started this conversation by saying we have an "Affordability Crisis."
GOV: We do. Prices are too high!
ME: So we should lower them?
GOV: No! We canāt lower prices.
ME: Why not?
GOV: Because then the voters lose their "Generational Wealth."
ME: So we need high prices for the voters... and low prices for the buyers?
GOV: Exactly.
ME: Thatās a paradox.
GOV: Itās politics.
ME: So what is your actual plan?
GOV: Weāre going to give first-time buyers $25,000.
ME: Okay. Iām a seller. I list my house for $400,000.
GOV: Uh huh.
ME: I know every buyer just got a free $25,000 from the government.
GOV: Right.
ME: What do I do?
GOV: You... keep the price the same?
ME: I raise the price to $425,000.
GOV: You wouldn't.
ME: I absolutely would. The buyer can afford it now.
GOV: But that just transfers the subsidy from the poor buyer to the rich seller!
ME: Econ 101.
GOV: We donāt think that will happen.
ME: Just like you didnāt think $7,500 EV credits would make Ford raise the price of the F-150 Lightning by exactly $7,500?
GOV: That was a coincidence.
ME: You are trapping us in a box.
GOV: Itās not a box.
ME: What is it?
GOV: Itās a Single Family Home with a 2.5% mortgage rate that you can never afford to sell.
ME: ...
GOV: Welcome to the American Dream.
Travis Adams retweeted
This has been a pet-peeve of mine for years.
There's no place in our regulatory framework for small, mildly profitable businesses that can cater to a neighborhood.
Someone could easily run a small shop and live behind or above it, but we zone that kind of business out of existence and then wonder why we don't have all of these small, interesting, niche businesses.
Travis Adams retweeted
Mike Jackson with a message for anyone would question how the Panthers attacked the Rams on their final drive:
āThey got armchair quarterbacks, but at the end of the day they aināt doing this for a living.ā
Travis Adams retweeted
Iām sharing my story with @PlayersTribune in the hopes it helps someone else going through the same thing
theplayerstribune.com/kayshoā¦
