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🚨THE 4-YEAR CYCLE IS ALIVE AND WELL ‼️
Many people in crypto twitter are calling for the death of the 4-year cycle, but I believe this is a baseless claim with little to no evidence according to the charts.
Ignore the noise. Follow the structure.
Let’s break it down:
🧵(1/7)
Slowly adding $TRAC
Outperformed many of the top 100 during the bull AND bear market.
Sinatra retweeted
An Artistic Rendition of the Battle of Mizoreth, when combined armies from the five kingdoms attempted to capture a natural Calamity.
The Dragon Economy
The dragons in Blokyverse are colossal and sometimes even cosmic beings.
A mature dragon is like a flying mountain and as their being is immune to almost every known disease there are some dragons that are believed to be as old as time and as big as the planets. Most dragons ever captured have been the young ones.
Being reclusive creatures as they are, it is nearly impossible to encounter one. Encountering one and then survive to tell the tale is another matter altogether.
Thus, on the rare occasion when the Blokyz do manage to capture one, A dragon is often worth more than its weight in gold. A mountain of gold. Entire kingdoms are often worth less than a dragon.
Their indestructible and surprisingly weightless scales make the most formidable armour, A drop of their blood makes impossible spells possible, the fire in their belly can power all the forges in a nation for decades... safe to say each part of a dragons body is highly coveted.
This also makes dragon knights highly sought after, as no one understands dragons better than the dragon knights. ideologically the society of dragon knights is split on the morality of Dragon economy. But it doesn't change the fact that the entire dragon economy rests on their shoulders.
$XRP
Bear market for xrp pretty much played out exactly as i thought.
I still think during the beginnings of a bull market, btc and eth outperforms it. So for now im staying away.
xitter.cf/Sinatra_uu/status/2004…
$XRP
Sorry to the holders, but this seems like a clear distribution phase.
XRPBTC showing almost identical momentum from 2017 cycle.
Even buying it spot long-term would not make me feel comfortable, fundamentals really aren't there, heavily speculative.
$QNT
“I haven’t don’t so yet”
Update: QNT is up 300% in the past week, and I still did not pick it up 😭
This hurts lol but happy some people made money
$QNT tick-tock
no idea where this decides to break, im just gonna wait for confirmation
what i can say, is that this coin has not gone below its feb lows unlike almost every top 100 coin, strength.
years of boringness, i like boring
red squiggle alignes with what i expect the 4-year cycle to do, but this chart hasnt exactly followed the rest of the market so its not that straight-forward to predict.
maybe picking up spot isnt a bad idea, i havent done so and wont as of now, but defo on my radar.
solana:rndrizKT3MK1iimdxRdWabcF7Zg7AR5T4nud4EkHBof
Longer chop at every bottom region.
I dont see many people talking about render on my feed, but that's cause price is corrolated with sentiment.
Im just seeing NEAR, ZCASH, QNT
We will probably see render in that list soon
Proud to be a @OriginalBlokyz
ethereum:native
No one has been this accurate on eth this bear market.
March 2026:
“Playbook: 1.7k was potential bottom, possibly see a sweep and go to 1.5-1.6k. We chop in this area between 1.7k to 2.5k for months and thats it, then enter a raging bull market in 2027 for eth.”
What if $ETH is just following what silver did but in a shorter time frame? I feel this is plausible.
This is NOT my base case, but definitly something I will have my eyes on.
First off, I chose silver because of its similar tops to eth, NOT because "ETH is the silver of crypto".
Silver had its major top in Jan of 1980 at 47.6$, then after a long wait, in April 2011, it FINALLY broke its ATH, but only swept the high.
Ik there is a major timeframe difference, but this is similar to eth in many ways.
Sentiment was overly impatient that eth could not break its ATH while BTC and SOL did, then finally after 4 years later, it made a new ATH, but never entered price discovery, JUST LIKE silver.
You can ALSO see in the fractal that silver had 3 chop periods after it swept the high. $ETH has had 2 chop periods since it swept the old ATHs and is now in its 3rd chop period.
Playbook: 1.7k was potential bottom, possibly see a sweep and go to 1.5-1.6k. We chop in this area between 1.7k to 2.5k for months and thats it, then enter a raging bull market in 2027 for eth.
I was not sure of this before, I was always worried that when the $SPX corrects, it will drag eth down with it (even after the feb crash). so far it hasnt, eth rallying when spx is flat, then dumping when it corrects, it creates this choppy price action that this silver fractal suggests.
Fractal trading to be quite frank is unwise and shouldn't be relied on, but this tradeoff rallies we are seeing for crypto against the SPX could suggest that we don't have to go much lower.
I thought this was not a real possibility given that I expected the SPX to correct, but after it started its correction and observing price movements, i give this a 30% chance of actually happening. i still think btc and eth have not bottomed AND should see lower very soon, but I do have a scenario where I can accept that we have bottomed and entered chop mode, a scenario that imo is worth speculating on.
The reasons why this isnt my base case is because of USDT.D chart, it is asking for another push higher.
I’ve said this many many times and it’s even in my pinned, I don’t think there is a reason you could say the 4-year cycle is dead (rn).
However, looking at this chart, for the first time ever, you could say that we have already bottomed. This line has been very accurate throughout the bull and bear market.
I’ve talked for so long on why waiting for the 4-year cycle bottom (even if you believe in it) is a horrible idea. For a 4-year cycle to be valid, it does not have to bottom in October, MASSIVE MISCONCEPTION. If you wanna read more about it, I’ll post under the comments below what I said 3 months ago.
Plan:
If we maintain this line and break above 82k, the bull run will definitely be on.
If we break below, we will see another capitulation event.
I’m entirely 50/50 on what’s going to happen, but, if I had to choose, gun to my head, I would say we need one more capitulation event. Either way it doesn’t matter to me. I bought much eth at 1.5k-2k in the past 6months.
I called that the 4-year cycle was playing out way before the top.
“But but, institutions and ETFs!”
“Strategic Reserve!”
“This time is different”
I dismantled all those arguments in July 2025.
People may say that the majority said the same thing, they did not.
Tom Lee, Arthur Hayes, Michael Saylor, Hunter Horsely, Ansem, and your scammy influencers that don’t understand how basic trends work.
Now I say this. Knowing that btc will bottom on October does NOT mean you should wait till October to buy. In fact, you will inevitably get rekt.
Scenarios:
You will never know how it actually forms a bottom.
There are MANY different ways a valid 4-year cycle bottom can play out, it will not just be as simple as “Bottom in October”.
Maybe it wicks slightly below previous low on October, and you miss out and wait for lower to get in.
Maybe it bottoms in late September, we have our green October, but you wait patiently for the “bottom”, and completely miss out.
Or you buy in the middle of “Uptober” out of fomo, then btc makes its bottom.
Maybe we have a green October, into November, and you panic buy because you think the 4-year cycle was wrong, then we have a PERFECTLY VALID 4-year cycle bottom in November.
Main point
Psychologically in markets, if you take the smart-ass approach, you are highly vulnerable to making emotional decisions.
Cause when the market gives you an unexpected outcome at the time of your planned moves, which it definitely will, you essentially “choke”.
Yes I do think the btc bottom will be in October, and yes I do think we go lower than people think we will, but that does not change my DCA plan whatsoever.
Imagine fading the Funko Pop of web3
@OriginalBlokyz
Love these @OriginalBlokyz I picked up a few days ago.
Love how the team is active and is in no rush to create short-term catalysts.
They were building wayyy before mint and royalty funds, which to me really does show their true intention.
Genuinely lovely art.
Thats all I needed.
Sinatra retweeted
Replying to @Sykodelic_
I'm a big believer in the cycle, but i have to say..
this chart here supports the "bear trap" idea. This line of support helped me navigate bull and bear markets over the years, and for the first time we have a nice deviation below it.
for me if this closes below the line, then its no longer a bear trap for me.
and the validity of this line is supported by multiple retests.
Sinatra retweeted
ethereum:native
I pointed this out months ago. Look at how well this has played out. Happy for this.
I still think we should watch for a correction in October.
I also doubt eth makes a newer low, but we will have to wait and see.
xitter.cf/sinatra_sol/status/203…
What if $ETH is just following what silver did but in a shorter time frame? I feel this is plausible.
This is NOT my base case, but definitly something I will have my eyes on.
First off, I chose silver because of its similar tops to eth, NOT because "ETH is the silver of crypto".
Silver had its major top in Jan of 1980 at 47.6$, then after a long wait, in April 2011, it FINALLY broke its ATH, but only swept the high.
Ik there is a major timeframe difference, but this is similar to eth in many ways.
Sentiment was overly impatient that eth could not break its ATH while BTC and SOL did, then finally after 4 years later, it made a new ATH, but never entered price discovery, JUST LIKE silver.
You can ALSO see in the fractal that silver had 3 chop periods after it swept the high. $ETH has had 2 chop periods since it swept the old ATHs and is now in its 3rd chop period.
Playbook: 1.7k was potential bottom, possibly see a sweep and go to 1.5-1.6k. We chop in this area between 1.7k to 2.5k for months and thats it, then enter a raging bull market in 2027 for eth.
I was not sure of this before, I was always worried that when the $SPX corrects, it will drag eth down with it (even after the feb crash). so far it hasnt, eth rallying when spx is flat, then dumping when it corrects, it creates this choppy price action that this silver fractal suggests.
Fractal trading to be quite frank is unwise and shouldn't be relied on, but this tradeoff rallies we are seeing for crypto against the SPX could suggest that we don't have to go much lower.
I thought this was not a real possibility given that I expected the SPX to correct, but after it started its correction and observing price movements, i give this a 30% chance of actually happening. i still think btc and eth have not bottomed AND should see lower very soon, but I do have a scenario where I can accept that we have bottomed and entered chop mode, a scenario that imo is worth speculating on.
The reasons why this isnt my base case is because of USDT.D chart, it is asking for another push higher.
Picked these up over the past month. Always been a fan of great art + a great team.
Funny how people only start appreciating art like this once the price tag gets high enough. The more expensive it gets, the “better” the art suddenly looks.
I think we see this phenomenon play out with @DeGodsNFT
I joined the Lost List. A little lost, a lot more found. 🌀
@lostbeings_nfts xitter.cf/lostbeings_nfts/status…
ethereum:native
I pointed this out months ago. Look at how well this has played out. Happy for this.
I still think we should watch for a correction in October.
I also doubt eth makes a newer low, but we will have to wait and see.
xitter.cf/sinatra_sol/status/203…
What if $ETH is just following what silver did but in a shorter time frame? I feel this is plausible.
This is NOT my base case, but definitly something I will have my eyes on.
First off, I chose silver because of its similar tops to eth, NOT because "ETH is the silver of crypto".
Silver had its major top in Jan of 1980 at 47.6$, then after a long wait, in April 2011, it FINALLY broke its ATH, but only swept the high.
Ik there is a major timeframe difference, but this is similar to eth in many ways.
Sentiment was overly impatient that eth could not break its ATH while BTC and SOL did, then finally after 4 years later, it made a new ATH, but never entered price discovery, JUST LIKE silver.
You can ALSO see in the fractal that silver had 3 chop periods after it swept the high. $ETH has had 2 chop periods since it swept the old ATHs and is now in its 3rd chop period.
Playbook: 1.7k was potential bottom, possibly see a sweep and go to 1.5-1.6k. We chop in this area between 1.7k to 2.5k for months and thats it, then enter a raging bull market in 2027 for eth.
I was not sure of this before, I was always worried that when the $SPX corrects, it will drag eth down with it (even after the feb crash). so far it hasnt, eth rallying when spx is flat, then dumping when it corrects, it creates this choppy price action that this silver fractal suggests.
Fractal trading to be quite frank is unwise and shouldn't be relied on, but this tradeoff rallies we are seeing for crypto against the SPX could suggest that we don't have to go much lower.
I thought this was not a real possibility given that I expected the SPX to correct, but after it started its correction and observing price movements, i give this a 30% chance of actually happening. i still think btc and eth have not bottomed AND should see lower very soon, but I do have a scenario where I can accept that we have bottomed and entered chop mode, a scenario that imo is worth speculating on.
The reasons why this isnt my base case is because of USDT.D chart, it is asking for another push higher.
Is the 4-year cycle dead?
Before I answer i'd like to point out 2 things.
I thought btc would top here at 70k i was wrong.
Second, this line that extends all the way back from 2018 has been insanely accurate.
Go above = Bull Run
Go below = Bear Market (Usually a 30-50% drawdown after breakdown)
But for the first time this bear market, it has formed a bullish deviation below the line. This really is amazing to see. (still have to wait for weekly close, but seems likely we close above)
BUT ALL OF THIS DOES NOT INVALIDATED THE 4-YEAR CYCLE, (yet...)
The only way the 4-year cycle is invalidated is ONLY if we don't see a btc bottom around october (maybe late septemebr, early november).
Now does this chart say the 4-year cycle is less likely to playout? Absolutely.
The fact of the matter is, it still is not broken, and you have to be careful who you're listening to.
The indicated arrow is NOT a prediction, it is a representation of what we need to objectively conclude that we have entered a bull market.
hope this helps
ethereum:native
Genuinely did not think it would go this high so quick but here we are.
The charts look fantastic, a push to 2.7 could happen here. The only thing that makes it iffy is the 4-year cycle, which still has NOT been invalidated and still could play out.
I have been going on and on with accumalating eth under 2k, I thought i was speaking on it way too much in fact.
But with that being said, the charts look great, only thing against this bias is the 4-year cycle.
xitter.cf/sinatra_sol/status/207…
$ETH
I hate that everyone is screaming “ETH season”…
But at the end of the day, if the charts are saying it, we have to listen.
Fantastic 3D close
xitter.cf/sinatra_sol/status/207…
$AKT
genuinely hope i helped at least
Up 33%
i personally sold at .49 for a 20% gain, but congrats to anyone who held longer, update on this soon.
xitter.cf/sinatra_sol/status/207…
$AKT
Glad I called for eth short-term cause this rlly didnt move much
If we continue rallying i still think this stays weak and maybe hugs .65
smthn like this maybe, honestly i would consider this on the optimistic side
anything around blue for swing
xitter.cf/sinatra_sol/status/207…
































