SimpleHedge corn sell signals were firing for the past week. Did you get hedged in time?

23.4M acres of Canola planted in WCanada for 2026 that's up 8.4% YoY, record number of acres

🚨$800 Canola!!🚨 Australian Canola expected to drop by 20% YoY (to 6.2MMT still feels aggressive..) Total EU imports expected at near 6MMT this year (NOT going to be seeing Australia send 5MMT again!) Canada walking back yield with El Niño and delayed seeding. This all leads to BASIS appreciation for Canada, because where else will the rest of the world be able to really source any material volume of seed if not from Canada?!

For those not on our email - here's what to watch this week

Canola vs Beans Seeing a different story playing out in these two oilseed markets. Beans getting more swings from the energy moves and Canola building a drought story.... #agtwitter #soybeans #canola

WASDE today! Know your positions and risk going into it

Capture the high looking attractive

The math is "mathing'"... REALLY fast seeding pace pressuring Soybeans, which historically prints a larger yield. Canola getting the run up from oil, AND market pricing in a tighter supply for 26/27 has pushed the X through its resistance.

Yes, I think about that as well. I typically use puts only when strike minus premium is at my ROI target and I am hedging bushels that I might lose to weather (so I don't over commit to a buyer)

2026 Yield Outlook: Why Winter Wheat’s Misery is often Gains for Corn and Soybeans and Hits to Canola🌽🌾 Interesting analysis we ran this week on the "Decoupling Effect" in North American crops. 🧵 As U.S. Winter Wheat enters Spring with a critical Good/Excellent rating (currently hovering in the mid-30% range), history suggests this is a major "bull trap" for the summer markets. The Discovery: When we see a wheat crisis during a Neutral-to-El Niño transition, national Corn and Soybean yields have finished above-trend or at record highs in 62% of years. Why the Decouple? A dry La Niña/Neutral spring that stunts wheat often "exhausts" itself just as the ENSO Oscillator flips. By July, El Niño typically floods the Corn Belt with moisture and cooler temps—precisely what corn needs for pollination. The Canola Contrast : 🇨🇦 While the US Corn Belt thrives in this flip, Canola often sees yield declines. In these transition years, Canola faces a "double-jeopardy" scenario: The Seeding Delay: Neutral-to-El Niño flips often trigger wet, late springs in the Prairies. The Root Trap: A "behind the 5-year average" seeding pace means shallower roots. When the El Niño "Heat Dome" eventually shifts North in July/August, it hits the Canola during its sensitive flowering stage before it has the root depth to survive. The 2014 Parallel: This is the "Rhyming Year." In 2014, U.S. Winter Wheat was in a tailspin. Yet, as the El Niño took hold, US Corn and Soybeans hit all-time record yields while Canadian Canola saw a severe 13% yield drop due to a late start and summer heat. The Bottom Line for 2026: History doesn't repeat itself, but it definitely rhymes. Our focus for 2026 reports now shifts to: ✅ Seeding Pace: Does the US stay on track (Bullish Yield) while the Prairies lag (Bearish Canola)? ✅ The July "Flip":Identifying the exact window where the El Niño moisture arrives. Watching these "Old Crop/New Crop" spreads closely as the oscillator begins to move. 📈 #Crops2026 #AgTwitter #Corn #Canola #Soybeans #Wheat #YieldOutlook #oatt

Bearish energy and oilseeds. Get hedged!

Oil prices are still $100/barrel on WTI front month and $91 on the deferred. Still a massive premium today on energy from where prices were prior to the war thru Jan and Feb. Interestingly, energy prices are closer to the all time high we saw at the first energy spike than they are to prices prior to the war. War premium still in energy, oilseeds should be able to hold this premium too #markets #oil

Oilseeds finding support from the crushers. No crusher will risk it when board margin is over $300/MT on Canola and $2.50/bu on Beans... #canola #soybeans #markets

And just like that energy is down $10/barrel, equities running. Get your Ag hedges in tonight as energy won’t be there propping up oilseeds… #grain #markets

🌦️Weather Patterns Matter! NOAA's climate prediction centre confirms La Niña is rapidly dissipating and moving to a "Neutral" Spring with almost 70% probability El Niño probability is over 60% for the summer. What does this mean for yield potential? Historically, a rapid shift to El Niño in the middle of summer will bring a "flash drought" in July across the prairies/northern states- right during the sensitive flowering stage, like on Canola... What can save it is an early planting season so that flowering occurs before the major drought periods, but we are already seeing more snow coming to WCan possibly delaying any early planting- but brings moisture MidWest gets milder temperatures during critical July pollination, but also brings heavy rains early on that can delay the seeding, particularly in the Eastern Corn Belt 🚨One factor that is quite interesting! When we have seen these high heat and "drought" weather patterns in WCan/Northern States, we see increases in forest fires... I know forest fires are not a "positive light", BUT the smoke from the fires has previously blanketed the Prairies and Northern States skies and blocked some of the sun which have helped minimize the stress on plants during the sensitive July time frame. As a result, less stress on the plants and yields have actually proven to be better than calculated. Take this for what you will, but is true and "smart" money is/will be trading this pattern and learnings from forest fires... #canola #oatt #corn #soybeans