🚢How vulnerable is global shipping to disruptions? We study this question with @SimonFuchs4 and @WoanFoongWong in a new paper we presented last week at the International Trade and Investment (ITI) program of the @nberpubs's Summer Institute. We develop a theory to characterize the determinants of maritime vulnerability, use new data to measure exposure to geographic and operational disruptions, and build a quantitative spatial general equilibrium model with endogenous shipping services to quantify their potential effects. Our key findings so far are that exposure does not imply vulnerability. We characterize where maritime vulnerabilities arise across shipping routes, chokepoints, and services, and examine their potential impact. Exposure becomes vulnerability when disruptions are difficult to bypass and dependence is asymmetric, so that one country bears much larger costs than the country with the ability to disrupt shipping. These asymmetries turn maritime dependence into geopolitical leverage. We’ll have a paper up soon. In the meantime, check out our slides here: conference.nber.org/conf_pap…