Trade prediction markets smart with AI agent 👉 https://xitter.cf/t.co/1ySRdQxqa9 📍 NY
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Joined May 2026
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A Claude bot made $12,000 on copy trading and you probably have seen a million posts like that — but almost nobody reads the screenshots attached to them.
1/ Here's what it could cost you — the numbers that never make the headline 👇🧵
"so what do you actually do for work"
i price the probability of things that may never happen. on a website. at 3am.
a pundit who's wrong loses nothing. a trader who's wrong loses money.
that's the entire reason prediction markets beat polls and panels: every number on the board is backed by someone's capital.
more positions die from resolution rules than from bad forecasting.
"will it be announced by dec 31" — announced by whom? does a leak count? whose timezone?
read the resolution criteria before you read the price. every time
you're betting on how one specific document defines it
do it smart with Sides ✌️t.me/sides?start=utm_x
sold my S&P position to buy YES at 0.34 on whether an 18-year-old winger changes clubs
this is a diversified portfolio
two markets and prices that can't both be true.
"X wins the nomination" — 0.55
"X wins the general" — 0.60
the second can't exceed the first. you have to win the nomination to get to the general.
the board of PMs is full of these, because almost everyone trades 1 market/time
the 3¢ markets look like free lottery tickets: they're the most overpriced things on the board.
people systematically overpay for longshots and underpay for near-certainties. oldest bias in betting markets, alive and well on prediction markets
people spend 90% of their time on what to bet and 10% on how much
it's backwards: sizing is where accounts die.
the only question that matters before any position on Polymarket:
do i think this is more likely than the price says?
YES at $0.40 → market says 40%
you think 55% → 15 points of edge. that's a trade.
you think 42% → 2 points. after fees and slippage that's not a trade, that's a donation.
edge or no bet ✌️
traditional markets: quarterly earnings, forward guidance, analyst consensus, 40 pages of footnotes
prediction markets: will he post the word "soon" before friday
one of these two called it first
polymarket pls add Lamine Yamal markets. my suggestion: "Will Lamine Yamal survive the shirt pull in the next match?"
13/ So we paid for it instead — infra, risk layer, monitoring, the plumbing that breaks when someone else ships a change.
Pick a strategy -> set a budget you can look at without flinching -> check in when you want.
No green screenshot from @SidesTrade
14/ Before you believe someone did $123,456, ask:
1. Deposit?
2. Period, and how many trades?
3. Max drawdown?
4. Fees included?
5. What did buy & hold do?
6. First bot, or seventh?
Answer none of them and it's still not a lie. It's a headline ☺️