Here is the concern. This is not a forecast, just something we will be watching VERY CLOSELY. No doubt the weather will be bad here, but the key is to keep the eye wall offshore. That is where the worst weather is located. We want to avoid being in the eye wall. Right now, it looks as though it will stay far enough west to keep the very worst of the weather off of our coast, but it will be close. Idalia will be guided north for a day or due to an area of high pressure building in from the east. The jet stream will starting dipping and will try to turn Idalia to the east. This is already indicated by the official track from the NHC which starts turning the storm to the northeast as it approaches landfall. Where that steering influence from the jet stream starts to take over will make all the difference in who gets the core (eye wall) of Idalia. There isn't great model skill in predicting this because it's such a subtle change in the atmosphere. If the dip in the jet is stronger than predicted by the models and happens sooner, than Idalia could start turning towards our west coast. Examples of this are Charley and Ian. This is not a forecast. Not a prediction! Just something I will be watching very very closely. Graphic via my buddy @CraigSetzer