Seems that way - and the gilt market likes it...

From our US rapid on September CPI. Rise in core is all about shelter - which we know is about to fall... capitaleconomics.com/publica…

Pleasure as always to chat to @mattmiller1973, @GinaMartinAdams and @dsassower. Tl;dr: China matters but not for the reasons you think, and don't expect fireworks from Powell tomorrow. (Cue fireworks.)

Key chart from our latest round of chart packs:

China's demographic problem in one chart

Here's that piece - including what I think is one of the charts of this tightening cycle. capitaleconomics.com/blog/wh…

Lots of questions re UK inflation and rates. This is the nub of the problem for the BoE - labour market is much tighter than other DMs. Wage growth >6% is inconsistent with 2% inflation target when productivity growth is flat at best.

My thoughts on today's BoE decision to raise by 50bps with @CNBCJou. As we argued yesterday, the MPC was backed into a corner by May's CPI data. Significant economic downturn now difficult to avoid. cnbc.com/video/2023/06/22/ba…

Lots of chatter about the recent stabilisation in housing markets but affordability is still v stretched. Prices likely to fall further in most DMs.

High frequency data show spending at large retail and catering firms in China up 18.9% y/y during Labour Day holiday. That takes spending back to its pre-pandemic trend. Rebound from zero-COVID may have run its course. #Macro #China