Las Vegas, NV
Joined November 2023
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$harp $electionz retweeted
Whatever bro it’s about the state of Kentucky and recruiting. I know what I’m doing I’m red all day. Remember that!
$harp $electionz retweeted
Great work. Now fix the trash service and quality.
$harp $electionz retweeted
I resigned from Anthropic today. I spent the last three years doing pretraining research at both OpenAI and Anthropic. Neither company is acting responsibly. They are racing straight to self-improving superintelligence and gambling with our lives. More thoughts below.
$harp $electionz retweeted
“What song are you listening to?”
Oh um, Hugh Freeze’s “You owe them something” Money for Nothing college football montage
$harp $electionz retweeted
Former Louisville & current Dodgers catcher Will Smith sported a custom UOFL themed bat for Players Weekend 🔥
$harp $electionz retweeted
Ok, fine, let’s do this.
I knew of Bessent when he worked in the London office at Soros & heard pitches for each one of his subsequent ventures listed below & for his last venture, a FoF w/ Jeff Tarrant, not included below.
In short summary, his claimed valor for the famed British pound cross trade is a myth. Soros managed his own principal positions & risk…always. There were other “investing teams” that also traded currency crosses, including the one Bessent was a part of in London, but to be clear that was a semi-autonomous group w/ its own capital & risk budgets allocated by Soros internally. They had nothing - NOTHING - to do w/ George’s massive bet against BoE interventions. Full stop.
Like many who stayed in the business after Soros wound up in 2000-early 2001, Bessent’s team at Soros broke off to do their own fund w/ a capital allocation from Soros’ family office. They bled to death being short oil & long US equity volatility in 2003-04, which introduces my point about Bessent which has always held up through the years.
Scott Bessent is a contrarian.
Being a contrarian caused his group to bleed out at Soros in early 2000, his first fund to fail in the mid 2000s, his second fund to fail in the mid-to-late 2010s (at one point he took the other side of the yen carry trade in 2017…really). And so on…
The problem with contrarians is the dogma “I’m not wrong, I’m just early” which leads to hubris “market still wrong, have to stay with it”…until the lights dim & losses compound to the point where the business is no longer viable.
Scott Bessent did that death spiral THREE times before becoming a marketing guy at a FoF. For a career trader that’s like going from starting for the New York Yankees to being the Kenny Powers tv series character trying to make it happen on a low rung minor league team in Myrtle Beach.
It’s glib to criticize his experience: that’s not the real issue now. The real issue is Bessent is a serial contrarian & that is the worst bad thing if you are a financial speculator in the markets.
That’s it. @RickPetree @NastyOldWomynII @GordonJohnson19
Every market has a fellow who is certain the prices are wrong and that he alone knows the right ones. Usually the market charges him tuition for this belief. Occasionally, it hands him the Treasury.
Consider the record. In 2000, Scott Bessent left Soros to run $1 billion of his own. Five years later, the fund no longer existed. In 2015 he tried again with Key Square, co-founded with Soros alum Michael Germino and seeded with $2 billion of Soros money — which is a bit like failing your driving test and being handed a Ferrari. Assets peaked at $5.1 billion in 2017 and finished 2023 at $577 million. Institutional investors reportedly went from 180 to 20, a retention rate that would embarrass a gym in February. And in 2018, Soros — the man who staked him — took his chips off the table. When your own anchor investor would rather not watch, that is not typically a buy signal.
Which brings us to the question: is the man now confidently dictating where oil, the dollar, Treasury yields, and stocks ought to trade a macro mastermind the market tragically failed to appreciate? Or did the market spend two decades doing its due diligence on him — and sell? He believes he’s smarter than the market. The market already graded that exam. Twice.
$harp $electionz retweeted
Just about that time of the year to sit outside at night and do absolutely nothing
$harp $electionz retweeted
Everybody wish happy birthday to the head ball coach, @patkelsey 🥳
Have a great day, Coach!
ALT Head coach Pat Kelsey putting L's Up
$harp $electionz retweeted
I am a man who walks alone
And when I'm walking a dark road
At night or strolling through the park
When the light begins to change
I sometimes feel a little strange
A little anxious when it's dark
$harp $electionz retweeted
Trump: “The American and Chinese people share much in common. We value hard work. We value courage and achievement. We love our families and we love our countries.”
