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Absolutely nothing beats the combination of a good risk management model and discipline!
If you don't have those, you are likely better off indexing!
#RiskManagement
Natural human, emotional reactions to stressful markets can influence the decisions we make. As this chart illustrates, the influence often isn’t for the better. pim.co/gxf3t #behavioraleconomics #investing #recession
I'd be willing to bet that @SmallCapVal can answer this one for me. 🤔
Sensible Speculation retweeted
If you have aging parents:
Do everything you can to get them to lift weights.
It will help them live longer while putting more life in their years.
Likely early, but as of this morning I have a few less t-bills.
$NCV.PRA
Sensible Speculation retweeted
Everyone eventually finds out the bond market is the most humbling market there is
James Carville (Clinton’s political strategist) figured it out in 1993:
Sensible Speculation retweeted
Franco-Nevada will release its Q3 2026 results on November 11 after market close, followed by a conference call and webcast on November 12 at 8:00 a.m. ET.
Visit us at franco-nevada.com/investors to view the full news release.
“There was a crash in ‘87. That’s when stocks used to go down.”
- Nancy Zimmerman (Bracebridge Capital)
The latest Pigs At The Trough is out
pigsatthetrough.substack.com…
10/11/2026 8:13PM WTI $89.86
(Let's look at this again in a week or two)
Dazed, Confused, and Heading for the Exits
The latest Pigs At The Trough is hot off the press!
pigsatthetrough.substack.com…
And the tales grow taller on down the line
-REO Speedwagon
“Trump Says Inflation Will Pay Off the $40 Trillion Debt Very Rapidly.”
According to Kalshi’s published figures, its perpetual-futures US 500 contract will allow up to 13.7× leverage.
This is a train wreck looking for a place to happen!
Today we launched the first stock index perpetual future in America.
You can now trade a perp on the US 500, an index of America’s largest companies weighted by market cap.
Stock index perps let you trade the broader market with greater capital efficiency and make it easier to do things like take a short position. Unlike traditional options and futures, they don’t expire, so there’s no need to roll over contracts or decide when to exercise an option. Gains and losses are tied directly to how much the market moves, giving you an efficient and straightforward way to ask the question: is the market going up or down?
One perpetual contract concentrates liquidity instead of spreading it across expiration dates. Bringing more traders and competing views into a single liquidity pool on a national exchange can strengthen competition, improve pricing, and make markets more efficient over time.
This launch brings us closer to building a financial exchange for anyone and everyone. Prediction markets gave traders exposure to the events that move the stock market. The US 500 is the natural next step: a way to trade on the market itself.
Congratulations everyone.
Superior business models produce superior results!
$dng.to
We’re proud to announce first gold pour from our Galam plant in Senegal—and it’s just the beginning. 🛫 It also marks the start of our expansion into Africa.🌍
Watch this space for more operational momentum from Senegal! 🇸🇳🔗globenewswire.com/news-relea…
#goldpour #firstgold #milestone #gold #beginnings #senegal #africa $DNG.TO
Sensible Speculation retweeted
Starting yield matters.
Morningstar shows a 97% correlation between starting 10-year Treasury yields and 7-year forward bond returns.
At 5%–5.5% starting yields, the Bloomberg US Aggregate Bond Index historically averaged 5.7% annually over the next 7 years.
The latest Pigs At The Trough is live!
(TIPS are starting to look good, but I'm going to stay in t-bills until we get a "bit further down the highway"! )
pigsatthetrough.substack.com…
Sensible Speculation retweeted
To the farmer I followed home… 🚜
Last night, after a golf scramble and the end-of-year golf banquet, I quickly got the golf clubs returned, gathered up the rest of our things, loaded my girls into the car, and headed home.
It was getting late, everyone was tired, and I was watching the clock because bedtime was calling our names.
I didn’t get very far before I ended up behind you.
You took up about 90% of the road, so I decided there really wasn’t much for me to do except sit back, enjoy the ride, and keep an eye on the clock. 😂
But as I looked in my rearview mirror, I realized there were 8+ vehicles behind you—and not one of us tried to pass.
We all understood.
You were working.
You were getting home.
And we were simply along for the ride.
So, from one stranger to another, I hope you know that somewhere behind you was a whole line of people who were patient, gave you space, and appreciated what you were doing.
I hope your yield is at an all-time high. 🌾
I hope your lunchbox is always filled with unlimited snacks.
I hope your coffee is stronger than my 7-year-old’s willpower. ☕😂
And I hope you make it home safely every night.
Thanks for reminding me that sometimes getting where we’re going means slowing down and letting someone else get where they need to go first.
Stay safe, Farmer. 🚜🌾
Today’s rhetoric that passive fund flows make a market break impossible is a fascinating study in complacency.
It sounds remarkably like Irving Fisher on October 15, 1929: 'Stock prices have reached what looks like a permanently high plateau.'
New mechanics, same old market psychology.
























