@UVASCPS Associate Professor. Director, NCJCC. Tweets about Security & Policing. Society for Terrorism Research Membership Chair. Tweets are my own views.
Charlottesville, VA
Joined June 2011
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The more I think, read and write on the topic of #policing in England & Wales the more I am convinced that #community policing was the worst thing to ever happen!
Convince me I’m wrong!
Excellent piece by the @spectator
Dr John Bahadur Lamb retweeted
Can the UK honestly promise NATO a Strategic Reserve Company, let alone a Corps?
The collapse of UK military power is genuinely fascinating. A country of 70mn - with the world’s 5th biggest economy - collectively opted to just give up on meaningfully defending itself.
1/7
Two years late, minimum...
NATO SACEUR Commander asserted last week that NATO is "ready to fight tonight". The UK would likely be unable to fight past a few weeks.
Our tank fleet reduced by one third.
Two years late for initial batch of 8 CR3. IOC for 2027 now wholly unrealistic. No new date when.
Gvt silence on the delay.
UK armoured battlegroup in Estonia soon replaced by a Mobile Anti-Armour Force (light mech inf).
Questions now need to be asked - given the length of CR3 delays - whether the UK can fulfil its NATO commitments to provide a Strategic Reserve Corps.
Dr John Bahadur Lamb retweeted
I’ve heard Journal of Quantitative Criminology will soon require opens data/code…which will make it the only journal in the entire field to do so. In late 2026.
We should be embarrassed! Complete abrogation of basic scientific responsibility for decades. And seemingly no urgency from the editors of Criminology, Justice Quarterly, Criminology & Public Policy, or Journal of Experimental Criminology.
There was an effort to get there from the last two editors of criminology, but the new editors haven’t followed through.
Meanwhile, what year do you think the first preregistered RCT was published in the fields flagship journal Criminology? If you guessed 2026 then you win (proud to have authored that one 😁).
Chatting with a friend about ongoing efforts in Economics to use AI to replicate every econ paper ever published. This is scary for individual researchers, of course (everyone lives in fear of a coding error), but clearly good for science.
I'd love to see this applied to Criminology, but those journals still don't require authors to post their data or code. 🙄
Dr John Bahadur Lamb retweeted
Introduction: Boxer as Symptom of a Deeper Problem
Views my own, comments and corrections welcome.
1/25 The British Army’s Boxer programme is not simply another delayed armoured vehicle project. It is the clearest contemporary illustration of a service that has spent more than three decades searching for a coherent role after the end of the Cold War and has repeatedly failed to hold a single vision long enough for equipment to match doctrine. What began in the late 1990s as a collaborative multinational effort has, as of this month (October 2026), produced a contracted fleet of 623 vehicles whose planned specialist variants have been cancelled and whose second tranche has been abandoned.
The platform that was once expected to form the spine of the Army’s mechanised infantry and to contribute to NATO’s two-division commitment now occupies a narrower supporting role while the Army continues to operate an ageing tracked inventory whose principal replacements remain late, incomplete or subject to residual safety concerns.
This is not primarily a political story. It is an Army story.
Dr John Bahadur Lamb retweeted
In 2006 I was working in CT surveillance. I remember SRR sgt telling me his team were expected to write RIPA directed surveillance applications in *Iraq*. An SIS officer told me same story on another occasion. New Labour civilianised the battlefield. As ever, 'human rights.'
Dr John Bahadur Lamb retweeted
In a previous life, I worked in the London Metropolitan Police Strategic Insight Unit (SIU). We did lots of excellent research, and most never got released publicly... except I've just found lots of it was FOI'd! I've collected it all here, hope it's useful!
andreasthinks.me/posts/siu-r…
Dr John Bahadur Lamb retweeted
The elites of Victorian Britain got up late, drank ceaselessly, worked short hours, partied through the night, and knew nothing about science, technology or engineering. And yet, by their own lights, they were hugely effective.
worksinprogress.co/issue/the…
The Victorians are often held up as a model against the supposedly soft, feckless, humanities-educated elites of today. But I argue that the genius of their system may have been its drastic weighting towards soft skills, team-building and intra-elite networking:
- A Victorian’s gentleman’s office hours typically began about 11am and finished about 5pm, including a multi-course lunch with wine.
- Upper-class Victorians drank ceaselessly. Conduct guides recommended four or five glasses of wine at dinner *for married women*. Port was often served in pints.
- Party culture was intense and nocturnal. Balls started at about 10pm, peaked after 1am, and continued till dawn. During the social season, bankers, judges and politicians might go to several balls per week.
- Elite Victorians learnt almost no STEM at school or university. At least half of class time was given over to ancient languages, often as much as 80 percent. One leading educationalist remarked that it was not worth teaching science to gentlemen because it does not involve ‘continued reasoning’.
- Sports and character formation were valued far above transmitting facts. A top headmaster described his school’s priorities as ‘First – character, second – physique, third – intelligence, fourth – manners, fifth – information’.
This cannot have made elite Victorians more productive individually, but maybe the dense social and emotional network it created helped them to work as a sort of extended team.
Perhaps we should think again about what makes groups of people effective.
Woo Hoo! Very happy to announce my latest paper has published! My co-author retired before it came out but he was a blast to do this with! Thanks Steve!!
academic.oup.com/policing/ar…
GOOD!
If you haven't tried the Kivin Method, you're missing out. mensjournal.com/sex-relation…
Had a great evening meeting @lonecrim in person!
People on Twitter really *do* exist 🤣
Dr John Bahadur Lamb retweeted
In 1964, a young University of Michigan anthropologist went to live with a tribe untouched by modernity.
What he found destroyed the noble savage myth.
Then his own discipline spent the next four decades trying to destroy him for publishing it. 🧵
Dr John Bahadur Lamb retweeted
I'd encourage everyone to read the Danish military intelligence assessment in full, and not rely on excitable social media upsums.
Here is the top line: "The Danish Defence Intelligence Service (DDIS) assesses that Russia will intensify its hybrid war by carrying out more frequent attacks against the West and NATO, with greater consequences for the targeted countries than in the past. This could include destructive cyber attacks that cripple critical societal functions as well as sabotage attacks that carry a high risk of casualties."
In other words, Russia will continue doing what it's already doing (terrorist attacks against hard and soft targets, cyberoperations), only more so. This is an uncontroversial assessment across Western intelligence services, so far as I've been able to determine.
DDIS continues: "At the same time, there is a low but growing risk that Russia will launch a limited military attack against one or several NATO countries bordering Russia....Such a limited military attack could take the form of isolated strikes with long‑range weapons on infrastructure that is vital to the support to Ukraine. In this situation, Russia might then claim that the weapons only struck NATO territory because they were jammed by Ukraine. It could also be a so-called false flag operation, where Russia uses Ukrainian‑made drones to attack a NATO country."
The scenario envisaged here (a low but growing risk) is a plausibly deniable conventional attack by Russia. The objective would be twofold. First, to sow panic and confusion in the targeted country or countries, and encourage skepticism of the official government version of what just happened. "Maybe it was the Ukrainians." "Maybe it was an accident." "Maybe no attack took place and the deep state is trying to foment World War III."
Thirty seconds on this hellsite should be enough to convince you that counterfactual narratives would be easy enough to amplify, especially in countries with elections forthcoming. A "limited military attack" psychologically would just be a heightened form of "hybrid" war because it's designed to overwhelm and demoralize the population and make its think that supporting Ukraine just isn't worth it since those not at war are now liable to become collateral damage.
The second objective of such an attack would be to gauge NATO's response to it -- and this is key bit, because, as DDIS also states:
"Russia will likely carry out military attacks only if it assesses that such attacks will not result in a war by triggering a collective NATO military response. However, Russia is likely uncertain about what could trigger such a war. Consequently, there is a risk that Russia assesses that the NATO countries will not respond collectively, especially if Russia assesses that the United States cannot or will not support the European NATO countries in a potential war against Russia." (Italics added.)
You wouldn't be wrong to detect a hint of political messaging here. (All intel services deny they do any such thing but they all do.) This is Denmark, a country that just stared down a possible U.S. invasion and annexation of Greenland, which would have meant the disintegration of NATO.
Trump has spent his entire second term (and much of his first term) doubting the Inviolability of Article V. His Pentagon has given NATO allies questionnaires to fill out to prove their worthiness as allies, while it undergoes a force posture review with ominous media leaks about what Bridge Colby and his minion might do (25,000 U.S. troops withdrawn, a scuppered U.S. base in Poland, etc.)
Now comes a frenzy of intelligence reporting across Europe about a possible Russian attack on NATO, all kickstarted by a CIA briefing delivered to the Poles, Scandinavians and Balts months ago with a warning that they're probably on their own if and when such an attack happens.
Never let a good crisis go to waste... Russia isn't sure what would trigger a war with NATO, so how might NATO make it sure? A "limited military attack" can be deterred if Washington telegraphs its intent to enforce Article V in word and deed by stating clearly and repeatedly what would constitute a casus belli in 2026 and, of course, by keeping U.S. troops in Europe.
Dr John Bahadur Lamb retweeted
BREAKING | 🇷🇺🇵🇱‼️ A Russian Armed Forces Mi-8 helicopter violated Polish airspace today near the heavily militarized Kaliningrad region, prompting Poland to scramble fighter jets.
According to the Polish Armed Forces Operational Command, the helicopter entered Polish airspace north of Braniewo at 11:08, penetrating approximately 300 meters across the border and remaining there for 42 seconds. Polish radar systems tracked the aircraft throughout the incident, while ground forces and air-defense assets were placed on alert.
The Polish military says the nature of the incident indicates that Russia is once again testing the readiness of Poland’s air defenses. The extremely short and shallow incursion nevertheless triggered an immediate military response, highlighting the sensitivity of NATO airspace along the Kaliningrad border.
See the latest updates with us: @visionergeo
Dr John Bahadur Lamb retweeted
I don’t know what warped logic drove Putin to blow up a stationary Ukrainian locomotive on the Polish border this morning. What we can say for sure is that this is the kind of random and senseless attack Ukrainians are enduring every day - even on civilian railways. So far Putin has been responsible for the deaths of 1700 staff of Ukrzaliznytsia - Ukrainian Railways. They and their daily passengers are absolutely heroic.
When are we going to give them the air defences they need? Why won’t we unfreeze Putin’s cash and give it to Ukraine? There is more than €140 billion in a Belgian bank account - and about £10 billion in London. Britain could show a lead.
The Ukrainians are going to win - that much was clear from the last three days in their wonderful country. But we will get this dreadful war over much faster if we all get serious and give them what they need and deserve.
Dr John Bahadur Lamb retweeted
Today is Saragarhi Day.
On 12 September 1897, just 21 Sikh soldiers of the 36th Sikhs, British Indian Army, under Havildar Ishar Singh, defended the isolated signalling post at Saragarhi on the North-West Frontier.
Against them came an estimated 10,000 Afghan/Pashtun tribesmen, principally Afridi and Orakzai, part of the tribal uprising against British rule.
The 21 were offered surrender. They refused. For hours they held the post against repeated assaults, fighting with rifles and finally at close quarters until every defender was dead. All 21 were posthumously awarded the Indian Order of Merit, the highest gallantry decoration then available to Indian soldiers.
Twenty-one Sikhs against roughly 10,000 men.
Saragarhi is one of the great last stands in British military history and a reminder of something too easily forgotten: Sikh soldiers served the British Empire with extraordinary courage and distinction. Their blood is part of our shared history.
Today Britain should remember them.
Hero. Absolute hero!
The special relationship in a person too
If you own a copy of We Were Soldiers Once... And Young, you are already holding a picture of him. The soldier on the cover, bayonet fixed, coming out of the elephant grass, is Rick Rescorla. Hal Moore called him the best platoon leader he ever saw.
He was born in Hayle, Cornwall, in 1939, a boy who watched American GIs stage through his town before Normandy and decided that was the life. British Parachute Regiment first, then Cyprus, then a uniform from a country he was not yet a citizen of. He joined the US Army in 1963 and by November 1965 he was a lieutenant in the 7th Cavalry in the Ia Drang Valley, the first major battle between American troops and the North Vietnamese Army. His men called him Hard Core. He came home with a Silver Star, a Bronze Star with oak leaf cluster, and a Purple Heart.
Then he became a corporate security director, which is where the story actually starts.
In 1990 Rescorla and an old Vietnam friend named Dan Hill walked the World Trade Center looking at it the way two infantrymen look at terrain. They found the weak point fast. The basement parking garage was wide open. They wrote it up and told the Port Authority that a truck full of explosives could be driven in and parked under the tower. The fix cost money, and it was declined.
On February 26, 1993, a truck bomb went off in that garage roughly thirty feet from the spot the two of them had circled.
Most people would have taken the vindication. Rescorla took the next step. He told Morgan Stanley the building was still a target and that they should get out of it entirely. The lease ran to 2006, so the answer was no. So he did the only thing left to him, which was to assume the attack was coming and train for it.
Every three months, no warning, he ran a full evacuation of every Morgan Stanley floor in the South Tower. Everyone went, down the stairwells, two abreast, at a pace he set. Senior executives went too, and he did not care that they hated it, and they did hate it. Traders being pulled off desks by a 60-year-old Cornishman with a stopwatch. He timed them. He made them do it again.
8:46 on the morning of September 11, 2001. The North Tower is hit. Over the public address system, the South Tower is told to stay put and return to desks.
Rescorla got on his bullhorn and told everyone to get out.
He was 62 years old. He was near the end of his career and he had every reason to be somewhere else that morning. Instead he stood in the stairwells and moved roughly 2,700 Morgan Stanley employees, plus hundreds of other people, down out of the building. To keep them steady he sang into the bullhorn. Men of Harlech. God Bless America. The Cornish songs he grew up on. Grown adults later remembered the strangest thing about the worst day of their lives was the sound of a man singing in a stairwell.
At 9:03 the second plane hit their tower, above them. Most of his people were already low or already out.
He called his wife Susan. She was watching it on television and she was falling apart. What he said to her was this. Stop crying. I have to get these people out safely. If something should happen to me, I want you to know I've never been happier.
Then he went back up.
He was last seen on the 10th floor, climbing, still going against the flow of people coming down. The South Tower collapsed at 9:59. His body was never recovered.
Morgan Stanley had about 2,700 people in that building. Six of them died. Rescorla and members of his own security staff, who stayed with him.
He spent eleven years telling people that an attack was coming and being told it was too expensive to prepare for. Then he spent the last hour of his life proving he had been right, and making sure it did not matter.
Dr John Bahadur Lamb retweeted
Tactical Intelligence Failures from a Counterintelligence Perspective: October 7 Attack and Beyond: International Journal of Intelligence and CounterIntelligence: Vol 39 , No 4 - Get Access tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.…
Dr John Bahadur Lamb retweeted
Contracting out Britain's Ballistic Missile Warning System to the same company that routinely provide salmonella poisoning to our troops' mess facilities is hardly the 'war-footing' latest that *this* Government can afford.
Another epic defence fail. A win any day now would provide light relief but I remain doubtful.
Round-the-clock vigilance, 365 days a year.
@SercoGroup will operate and maintain the Solid State Phased Array Radar at RAF Fylingdales under a new five-year contract we've awarded.
Designed to track missiles, acting as a deterrent within the US Missile Defence network. 🚨
Dr John Bahadur Lamb retweeted
The frankly terrifying inaction on Ground Based Air Defences in UK Defence plans in the latest written answers:
Answer 1) Pollard tells us that the cut to GBAD funding from c3 billion to 1.5 in the NISTA Major Projects report is "not a cut". The missing money is still there, but beyond the 10-year planning period.
Are we supposed to be encouraged by Land GBAD getting to spend 1.5 billion OVER 10 YEARS? Are you all clinically insane?
Note that this answer also appears to contradict the DiP directly. The DiP says 1.5 billion is going to Land GBAD over the 4 years to FY 2029/2030.
Which number are we supposed to trust? I don't think the two things can be reconciled, even assuming the DiP figure is deliberately "misleading" by including every last penny for use/sustainment of what's already in service.
Answer 2) the Mounted SHORAD, aka the replacement of STORMER HVM sees "current cost estimates exceed available funding". No shit, if the funding profile for all of Land GBAD is no more than 150 million per year over an entire decade. You are all out of your minds.
Answer 3) trying to translate Pollard to human, the Patria 6x6 SHORAD fire unit in development is not (yet) formally the selected solution for the replacement of STORMER HVM although a Patria 6x6-based solution remains the "preferred solution".
As far as we know it is also the only solution that is getting funded for development, to the tune of dozens of millions now expended.
It is effectively the only apparent game in town. The UK entered CAVS in 2025, for all I know, effectively on the back of identifying Patria 6x6 as the affordable platform for the STORMER replacement.
STORMER HVM was due out of service originally this year.
It's now supposed to be replaced in 2028.
It's already september 2026 and the tune of answers we get on the topic is this one.
STORMER HVM is not being replaced in 2028 either, it seems already pretty clear.
I don't even know how to comment anymore.
