Vegas set the line at Tenn -2.5. The market pushed it to +2.5
The underlying win probability still favors Tennessee.
cFPi+ | CFBPredictor.com@cfbpredictor6hUnited States
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CFPi+ has Tennessee over South Carolina, 28-23, 61.9%. Model: Tennessee -5.3. Market: South Carolina -2.5. Tennessee is up 14 spots to No. 11 on the No. 6 defense in the country. The model and the market disagree on the winner. #T1000 🤖 cfbpredictor.com
Tennessee opened as a 2.5-point favorite and is now a 2.5-point underdog. Fans are panicking over the five-point swing.
But ESPN FPI still gives Tennessee a 60% chance to win, and my Precap model has the Vols at 56.3%.
The market is pricing Tennessee at roughly 45%.
Line movement does not cause the underlying probability of winning to change...
I'd take Tennessee +2.5 right now.
What happens when a stoppable force meets a moveable wall?
Tennessee might be the worst passing offense in the SEC.
South Carolina might be the worst passing defense in the SEC.
Replying to @Josh_Ward
Important for people to remember that Vegas spreads are NOT predicted W/L margins
Replying to @SecRecap
The fact SecRecap only has 143 followers illustrates his content is mostly garbage takes.
Replying to @510Warriorsfan
Good thing you didn't get your little feelings hurt
Replying to @TreyBiddy
Legit great shout.
That's my hometown and Old Country Store / Casey Jones Village is iconic.
The biggest shift for me since this model run is that I believe there is too much confidence being put in a backup center for Alabama in this environment, and the potential mistakes that can arise.
Penalties, communication, Tennessee's interior DL, pass pro.
Maybe they have a great plan for overcoming it, but it's a matchup that could swing the game.
At the very least I think 8-9 points is too big.















