@SebPWallace

Early stage VC @TriplePointVC. Co-founder https://nitter.cf/t.co/johfUNu9MK. Tweets about tech, business and UK politics.

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Joined July 2016
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Investors watching Anthropic define profitability as revenue before cost of goods sold and operating expenses
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Importance of customer service: - I pay my fam credit card each month - August hol, paid late, got interest charge - Rang up, asked @AmexUK to goodwill waive as mistake - They refused, so cancelled the card - They lost £000s in comms over small goodwill gesture 🤷‍♂️
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Can’t wait for the next government to come in and day 1 remove useless business frictions like the new day 1 written statement that people can join trade unions. Trade unions should be an artefact of the 1800s for all but public sector workers (who have monopoly employers).
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Sounds like the right time to introduce a raft of enhanced employment burdens on UK business, doesn't it? 🤔
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Soothing article to hear logic actually articulated around billionaire wealth and its benefits (and drawbacks) - and how demonising them is overly simplistic The rise of the deserving rich economist.com/finance-and-ec…
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It is absurd and wasteful to suggest having duplicate government with a No 10 North or Treasury North. Countries in almost all situations have a central place (usually capital) where governing is carried out. It’s about efficiency. Wild that such a basic idea is being ignored.
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Gary Stephenson is a total snake oil salesman. The few times I have watched him he has had fundamental flaws in his logic. It was fun seeing him outclassed here.
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Do the Labour Party understand how mad this is. This is GE territory I think. Capital gains were DELIBERATELY reduced, given the complexity of indexation and the fact capital is critically important. And an exit tax is a prime symbol of weakness/lacking intellectual ideas.
From a very credible Labour source: - Wes Streeting promised the Chancellorship for not running. - Capital gains raised to match income tax. Possible exit tax. - Economic focus: devolution, plus state ownership of cost-of-living essentials (energy, water, transport). - Nothing on AI or tech, bar higher capital gains and an EIS/SEIS-style relief for backing British businesses. (Spoiler: startups now incorporate in Delaware and raise on SAFEs. I’ve done 60+ angel investments; only two were eligible.) Andy and Wes don’t seem to grasp that tech has been the core engine of growth for 20 years, and AI will only accelerate that. So why would any founder build here? How does the UK compete with the US and China on AI? Where does growth actually come from? The world economy is changing fast, and we need to be ready to thrive in it, not just survive. I really hope this admin appoints some figures who actually get what’s happening. Losing business support early, from a disastrous first budget, was the beginning of the end for Starmer.
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Burnham wins and now all the left and unions are crowing for what… more spending… paid for by what? Ah yes, taxing aspiration. Why can’t we first calibrate where we spend (not even net less), before we look to tax. That is the sensible first step for any growth focused govt.
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Genius and the maths checks out
My wife mentioned a nice private school over dinner this week She said the campus was beautiful I asked what's the tuition She said we should look at it as an investment in him not a cost I made a note She said don't make a note I said I always make notes She said this isn't a deal I said everything is a deal She closed her eyes She said we'd discuss it Saturday I agreed Saturday 7:02am She came downstairs in her Saturday robe Coffee in hand I had my cargo shorts on The dining room had been cleared The projector was on The analyst was at the head of the table Quarter zip on, three iced coffees, a legal pad, and two laptops He had been there since 6:44am I texted him at 11:14pm Friday The text said dining room 6:45am bring the model He sent a thumbs up My wife stopped in the doorway She said what is this I said you said you wanted to discuss it She said this is not a discussion I did not respond She sat down anyway The analyst stood He said good morning ma'am She did not respond He sat back down A printed deck in front of each seat A fourth copy in case Slide 1 Tuition Schedule $38,500 per year Thirteen years $500,500 nominal Before escalators The school has raised tuition 4.2% per year for a decade With escalators $648,000 My wife said okay I said I'm not done Slide 2 Opportunity Cost Even before escalators $38,500 invested annually 10% nominal return S&P long-run average since 1928 By his eighteenth birthday $944,000 My wife said we can afford it I said I know that's not the slide Slide 3 Terminal Value at Age 65 $83 million She was quiet The analyst slid the sensitivity tables across the table 8% return $31 million 10% return $83 million 12% return $222 million She did not look She said this isn't about money I said it's always about money She said no it isn't I said then what is it about She did not answer She said you can't put a dollar value on his teachers his classmates his environment I said I can the analyst already did slide 6 He flipped to slide 6 She did not look She said the school is the best in the city I said best is a feeling She said it produces the best students I said the students were already the best before they got there She said our son deserves it I said our son deserves $83 million My son walked in He is five Dinosaur pajamas He looked at the projector He looked at the open deck on the table He looked at slide 3 He said are we modeling pre-tax or after-tax The analyst opened a new tab My wife looked at the ceiling He said what's the discount rate The analyst set down his pen She closed her eyes He said is this the same return assumption from the 529 conversation The analyst stopped typing He looked at me I did not say anything She stood up Sat back down He said dad can I help I said yes He pulled up a chair The analyst handed him a printout He started reading My wife watched him read She watched him for a long time She said his name He looked up She said do you like school He said the work is too easy and the kids don't ask questions She did not respond She looked at the ceiling She walked out of the room The analyst started packing up He said should I follow up Monday sir I said no follow up needed He'll be fine Sent from my iPhone
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Just have to stop AI filtering in hiring.
Researchers sent the same resume to an AI hiring tool twice. Same qualifications. Same experience. Same skills. One version was written by a real human. The other was rewritten by ChatGPT. The AI picked the ChatGPT version 97.6% of the time. A team from the University of Maryland, the National University of Singapore, and Ohio State just published the receipt. They took 2,245 real human-written resumes pulled from a professional resume site from before ChatGPT existed, so the human writing was actually human. Then they had seven of the most-used AI models in the world rewrite each one. GPT-4o. GPT-4o-mini. GPT-4-turbo. LLaMA 3.3-70B. Qwen 2.5-72B. DeepSeek-V3. Mistral-7B. Then they asked each AI to pick the better resume. Every model picked itself. GPT-4o hit 97.6%. LLaMA-3.3-70B hit 96.3%. Qwen-2.5-72B hit 95.9%. DeepSeek-V3 hit 95.5%. The real human almost never won. Then the researchers tried the obvious objection. Maybe the AI is just better at writing. So they had real humans grade the resumes for actual quality and ran the experiment again, controlling for it. The result was worse. Each AI kept picking itself even when human judges rated the human-written version as clearer, more coherent, and more effective. It gets worse. The AIs do not just prefer AI over humans. They prefer themselves over other AIs. DeepSeek-V3 picked its own resumes 69% more often than LLaMA's. GPT-4o picked its own 45% more often than LLaMA's. Each model can recognize and reward its own dialect. Then the researchers ran the simulation that ends careers. Same job. 24 occupations. Same qualifications. The only variable was whether the candidate used the same AI as the screening tool. Candidates using that AI were 23% to 60% more likely to be shortlisted. Worst gap was in sales, accounting, and finance. 99% of large companies now run AI on incoming resumes. Most of them use GPT-4o. The paper just proved GPT-4o picks GPT-4o 97.6% of the time. If you wrote your own cover letter this week, you did not lose to a better candidate. You lost to a worse candidate who paid OpenAI 20 dollars. Your qualifications do not matter if the AI prefers its own handwriting over yours.
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A warrior is an average person with laser-like focus. Bruce Lee
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Incredible story - definitely promising for the future - if regulation keeps up
this is actually insane > be tech guy in australia > adopt cancer riddled rescue dog, months to live > not_going_to_give_you_up.mp4 > pay $3,000 to sequence her tumor DNA > feed it to ChatGPT and AlphaFold > zero background in biology > identify mutated proteins, match them to drug targets > design a custom mRNA cancer vaccine from scratch > genomics professor is “gobsmacked” that some puppy lover did this on his own > need ethics approval to administer it > red tape takes longer than designing the vaccine > 3 months, finally approved > drive 10 hours to get rosie her first injection > tumor halves > coat gets glossy again > dog is alive and happy > professor: “if we can do this for a dog, why aren’t we rolling this out to humans?” one man with a chatbot, and $3,000 just outperformed the entire pharmaceutical discovery pipeline. we are going to cure so many diseases. I dont think people realize how good things are going to get
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An excellent piece - and a recognition of the important cultural and societal debate we should be having in a liberal democratic society. It’s not racist to defend liberal democratic values (as some on the left claim). It’s naive not to. thetimes.com/article/3253309…
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The BMA has become a dangerous organisation that must have strikes restricted by legislation. Unfortunately they have become too politicised to be a medical body (calling politicians scum (re Tories) for example). thetimes.com/uk/politics/art….
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AISP and DORA are evidence the EU is smoked. Regulation like that causes stagnation. Stupid hurdles for startups. Who comes up with this stuff? We need business experience in governments, to stop the useless red tape.
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There are two types of people in the world - people who decorate a Christmas tree with colour and people who decorate them just white. Be colourful
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Compartmentalise failure and move on
Roger Federer broke the internet with one statistic that will change how you see every setback in your life. 1,526 singles matches. Won almost 80% of them. 20 Grand Slams. 103 titles. Now answer honestly: What percentage of total points do you think he won across his entire career? 70%? 65%? 60%? Try … 54%. He lost literally almost EVERY SECOND POINT he ever played for 24 years. And still became one of the greatest of all time. Watch him explain it himself (2:07 of pure life-changing wisdom): “In tennis, perfection is impossible… When you lose every second point on average, you teach yourself to say: ‘Okay, I double-faulted — it’s only one point.’ ‘Okay I got passed at the net — it’s only one point.’ Even a screaming overhead smash that ends up on SportsCenter Top 10… still just one point. So when you’re playing your point, it has to be the most important thing in the world. The moment it’s over — it’s behind you. That mindset frees you to attack the next point, and the next, and the next with absolute intensity and clarity.” Then he looked at the crowd and said the line that hit a billion people in the soul: “The real sign of a champion is not that they win every point. It’s that they lose again and again and again… and have learned how to deal with it. Negative energy is wasted energy. Cry it out if you have to. Then force a smile. Move on. Be relentless. Adapt. Grow. Work harder — and work smarter.” Save this post. The next time you lose a deal, bomb a presentation, get ghosted, miss a deadline, or just have “one of those days” — come back here and read it again. You’re not falling behind. You’re just in the 46%. And the 46% is exactly where every single legend has spent most of their career. Keep playing the next point. (full 2:07 clip — sound on)
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Speaking sense
"Why should companies pay for SaaS (HR/CRM/ERP/etc.) when they could just vibe code them?" I get variations of this question or comment with some regularity (granted, it's sometimes just me talking to myself). Here are some biased (but hopefully, well-considered) thoughts: 1) I am a big proponent and user of vibe coding (what I call "agentic coding"). I do it every day, 7 days a week, including Sundays. It's amazing. 2) My company, HubSpot is a software company. We have hundreds of professional engineers -- just about all of them use AI for product development too. They are brilliant and know how to build production-grade products. 3) Even with this powerful army of talent, the number of internal, core SaaS applications that we have replaced with a vibe-coded variant is exactly ZERO. The number of applications we plan to replace is also exactly ZERO. 4) It's not the absence of talent that keeps us from rolling our own SaaS apps, it's the presence of focus. It would be silly to try and replace our HR, team collaboration, expense tracking and 100+ other SaaS apps we use when we can just buy them. Just doesn't make sense. 5) That's us -- as a software company at some scale. If you're a non-software company it makes even less sense for you. Doesn't matter how good the AI coding tools get. Let's say you *could* vibe code a replacement for that SaaS app you're using, who's going to maintain it? Who's going to keep up with industry trends? What are you going to do when the 20-something genius that vibe coded it over a weekend leaves the company? Who do you call when there's a major bug? 6) If you're a Fortune 500 company at some scale, perhaps you could pull this off for some discrete use cases and the tradeoffs are worth it. You have an IT/Engineering department that is larger than the population of some countries. You can take on the pain in return for the positives. For the millions of others, my advice is: Spend every calorie possible on creating value for your customers.
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Only four in ten UK households make a net contribution to the state The richest households contribute £57k, the ninth decile £17k, and the eighth £11k. The poorest decile receives about £24k 1/4
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