SeaSide Signs

The model predictions are in and NASA's model run shows a flanking blow by late on January 2. NOAA's model is less certain, but they may rerun this as more coronagraph data comes in. Likely we could see an extension of the expected activity through January 3. A G1+ level is possible so aurora views may grace mid-latitude skies!

As expected, we are now in a fast solar wind stream from this highly irregularly shaped coronal hole. For the most part, we will pass through the upper equatorial portion of the fast wind pocket due to Earth being slightly above the ecliptic plane right now, but because of active Region 4292, this journey could bring highly variable wind. Expect multiple intensifications in wind speed over the next few days along with some magnetic reversals. From the PFSS overlay, you can clearly see some closed field lines in the center, which is what could bring the bumpy ride. If you are an aurora chaser you might want to watch for these bumps, especially in the magnetic field, as they could help trigger substorms over the next couple days.