Scott Steigerwald retweeted
일론, 잘 들어. 테슬라 주주로서 한마디 한다.
프리미엄 줘야 찬성할 거다. 아니면 반대다. 그 이유를 말해줄게.
첫째, 테슬라는 스페이스X가 없어도 사업하는 데 큰 문제가 없어.
테슬라 3분기 잉여현금흐름
+$1.53B
테슬라 현금
$45.4B
본업이 현금을 만들고 있어. 스페이스X 없이도 굴러가.
둘째, 스페이스X의 미래에는 테슬라가 반드시 필요해.
스페이스X 9개월 잉여현금흐름
약 -$35B
4분기 설비투자 가이던스
$35B~40B
궤도 데이터센터, 13GW 컴퓨트, 화성까지 가려면 테슬라가 가진 게 필요해. 현금을 만드는 본체, 메가팩, 화성에 보낼 옵티머스, 제조 규모. 스페이스X 혼자서는 그 계획을 감당할 자금 구조가 안 나와.
셋째, 그래서 순서가 그렇게 된 거로 보여.
스페이스X는 테슬라보다 하루 먼저 실적을 발표했어. 이틀 전에야 날짜를 잡은 이례적인 일정이었고, 헤드라인은 흑자전환이었어.
순이익 $4.4B
근데 그 순이익의 36.6%는 본업 밖에서 왔고 9개월 누적으로는 아직 적자야. 협상에 쓰기 좋은 그림을 먼저 깐 거지. 다음날 테슬라 실적콜에서는 합병 질문 자체가 안 나왔어.
넷째, 테슬라 주주는 이미 여러 번 양보하고 감내했어.
트위터 인수할 때 일론은 테슬라 주식 약 $23B를 팔아서 인수 자금을 댔고, 그해 테슬라 주가는 65% 빠졌어. 그 하락을 주주들이 같이 감내한 거야.
2024년에는 테슬라가 받기로 돼 있던 엔비디아 H100 12,000개, 약 $5억어치가 X 쪽으로 먼저 갔어. 테슬라의 AI 학습 일정이 밀리는 걸 감수한 셈이지.
올해 초 xAI에 넣은 $2B도 마찬가지야. 그 돈은 스페이스X 주식으로 바뀌었고, 이번 3분기엔 그 주식에서 약 $140M 평가손실까지 봤어.
양보는 이미 충분히 했어. 이번엔 받을 차례야.
다섯째, 구조가 정상 흥정을 막고 있어.
머스크는 양쪽을 다 사실상 지배해. 스페이스X 의결권 약 85%, 합병하면 56~58%. 아쉬운 쪽이 값을 치르는 시장의 룰이 작동하기 어려운 구조야.
그래서 결론은 이거야. 필요한 쪽은 스페이스X고, 그 필요의 대가는 테슬라 주주가 프리미엄으로 받아야 해. 은행들도 테슬라 주주의 20~35% 프리미엄 요구를 전망하고 있어.
방어선은 특별위원회와 전체 주식 50% 찬성 문턱. 이 비대칭이 가격에 제대로 반영되는지가 진짜 관전 포인트라고 생각함
프리미엄 많이 줘라.
아니면 난 반대.
Scott Steigerwald retweeted
🚨#ALERT: Everyone needs to be aware of this
Journalist Avery Daye exposes the history of Minnesota Rep Ilhan Omar
“Ilhan Omar — I figured not enough people know about her family’s history, so let’s recap:
Her dad and her grandfather were both high-ranking military officials in the Barre regime, which killed over 200,000 people. They’re most famous for the Isaaq genocide — it was the worst of the worst: aerial bombings, executions, man-made famine.
People massively suffered under this regime, with the help of people like Ilhan Omar’s family who supported the regime and carried out this, this horror.
— They have family ties to this guy known as the Butcher of Hargeisa, and his whole shtick was “kill all but the crows.””
“So the suffering of the people of Somalia was so bad that there was a civil war and the regime was overthrown. Her family fled first to Kenya and then Minnesota, claiming they’re like these asylum seekers.
These poor, poor people. No, no, no, no. They were fleeing to escape being held accountable for what they did. She was not oppressed. Her family, they were the oppressors.”
“So for the Democratic Party to have her as a representative is insane to me — and the way that they’ve like rebranded her as all this poor refugee? No, no. She wasn’t a refugee of war. Her family created the war.”
Scott Steigerwald retweeted
FOR ALL OF THOSE THAT WILL MISS CHURCH THIS MORNING. HERE’S A SHORT SERMON ON ISLAM AND THE DEMOCRAT PARTY.
Antichrist movements do not need shared truth when they have a shared enemy.
And if we don’t wake up to this today, we will not wake up from this tomorrow.
Scott Steigerwald retweeted
The left wokies should be thanking Trump every day. Because that man’s flawed cartoonish persona is actually hiding the reality of what he is trying to represent. Rubio said it here.
I listened again and felt my eyes tearing.
This is the greatest political speech in 40 years.
The final minute of Secretary Marco Rubio’s address in Athens is truly spellbinding if you listen closely.
This will go down as one of the greatest speeches ever delivered by a Secretary of State.
He perfectly weaved in the history of ancient Greece to show why Western civilization is worth fighting for.
Most importantly, it was a warning to the rest of Europe about what could be lost if the West forgets where it came from.
RUBIO: “But Europeans and our friends across the West must relearn the lessons our forefathers took from this place and from its history.”
“The history of Greece does not just offer us a glimpse of our institutions in the earliest forms. The history of Greece shows us an image of ourselves.”
“It shows us that ours is the inheritance of great heroes and we should be proud, intensely proud, where we come from.”
“We should marvel at what our forefathers carved out of this countryside.”
“The story of our civilization is the greatest story ever known to man, and it began here with the first men and women of the West, from them, from them we can rediscover the virtues, the courage and the strength to confront the dangers that we face in our time.”
The entire place erupted in applause at the end.
That was a special moment from Rubio.
Scott Steigerwald retweeted
How Many of You remember this 🚨WOW! PAINTER SCOTT LOBAIDO JUST COMPLETED HIS PAINTING OF COREY COMPERATORE AT TRUMP'S BUTLER RALLY!
Beautiful painting, @ScottLoBaido!
Over 60K are at this rally!
Share to make this go viral!
Scott Steigerwald retweeted
🚨IN 2014, TRUMP HAD A BUCKET FULL OF ICE WATER DUMPED ON HIM TO RAISE MONEY TO STOP THE ALS DISEASE!
Trump challenged Obama to do the same, but Obama refused.
We know the FAKE NEWS won't report this.
It sure would be a shame if everyone shared this and it went viral!
Scott Steigerwald retweeted
EVERYONE MUST WATCH THIS:
Tesla just reinvented the car (Cybercab is here) youtu.be/OYx3o27Cw-U?is=RfQv… via @YouTube
Scott Steigerwald retweeted
❎
POLL TIME
"The most entertaining outcome, especially if ironic, is the most likely"
Elon Musk @elonmusk
Sooo, if we get a 4.2x multiplier, then logically the needed floor (to pull all teeth of WS) should be at ...
Please vote and repost for max exposure.
9%$500 😐
20%$600 🙂
39%$690 ☺️
31%see results 🤓
5,756 votes • Final results Scott Steigerwald retweeted
🚨 UPDATE: HHS Sec. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. has just CANCELED mass amounts of federal funding grants to Planned Parenthood and other organizations because they pushed s*xually explicit content on children — Daily Signal
I VOTED FOR THAT!
Thank you, @SecKennedy! 👏🏻
Scott Steigerwald retweeted
HOLY F'VCK 🚨
@JDVance just called out Thune and said the Save America Act is not dead
Raise your hand ✋️ if you want Vance to take the presiding chair as Senate President & enforce the rules that enables a talking filibuster
Let him know, he's tagged, he will see this 💯%
Scott Steigerwald retweeted
$TSLA and the markets have one of their biggest drops this year. What does this mean moving forward? Is $TSLA cooked, is it near support and ready to bounce?
- In this video I give my thoughts on the chart
- Where I think $TSLA can head to next as well
- And is this a bear trap or the start of something worse?
Scott Steigerwald retweeted
One billionaire bankrolls the Senate Republicans blocking Trump — and the Tony Blair operation that tried to drag him into a forever war with Iran.
Meet Larry Ellison.
@BarbaraMBoyd connects the whole network. 🧵👇
Scott Steigerwald retweeted
Almost half of Americans don’t like RFK Jr. if you like him leave a red heart❤️🇺🇸!!
Scott Steigerwald retweeted
This man put his heart and soul into fending off a leftist takeover of our judicial system, and he inspired thousands of others to do the same.
The MAGA movement is forever thankful.
IF you support him, Give me a THUMBS-UP👍!
Scott Steigerwald retweeted
It’s a non issue no one will vote yes unless it is valued at $700 per share or higher for this exact reason. Love Elon, supported him through everything, he doesn’t get to steal a company through an affiliate transaction. Thats like finance 101.
Scott Steigerwald retweeted
A hot topic that will likely continue to get hotter in the not so distant future. I would say that $TSLA investors haven’t funded the Robotaxi development as much as the Model 3 ramp…after that model 3 ramp TSLA stock hasn’t needed to raise capital again (although they still did in 2020). I am torn myself and wish Robotaxi would ramp up FIRST before the merger so the TSLA valuation can have it’s 3-5x valuation explosion from here we’ve all been patiently waiting for…However, if TSLA gets acquired by SpaceX FIRST then I believe it will #1 hopefully be at at least on somewhat favorable immediate terms for $TSLA shareholders (e.g. 20-30% premium) and #2 the Robotaxi ramp right after such a merger/acquisition would THEN raise the new combined SpaceXai+Tesla valuation still 2-3x from there IMO from let’s say $4 trillion market cap up to $10 trillion market cap pretty quickly IMO…that would be just from Robotaxi ramp alone, not counting Optimus and all SpaceXai advances (e.g. Starship, data centers/AI in space, etc.)