📊PFSA Level 2 Data Analysis In Football 🏴 Scottish football stats, insights, reviews & previews. 💻 Data via Sportmonks API unless stated.
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🏟️ MATCH PREVIEW: Celtic v Hearts
Live on Sky Sports
📍 Celtic Park | ⏰ 3pm KO | 👨⚖️ Referee: David DickinsonThe
Context: 📉
After Rangers dropped points away to Dundee last night, Celtic could extend their lead at the top to 4 points with a win. Martin O'Neill's Celtic sit top of the table and boast a formidable league record, having won 14 of their last 15 league games and scoring at least twice in 11 of those victories. Since the start of April, no other side has won 10 or more Scottish Premiership matches.
Wouter Vrancken's Hearts enter this clash occupying third place, bringing huge momentum following a crushing 5-0 victory over St Mirren. However, their away form presents a major hurdle, with the Jambos winning just two of their last 11 league matches on the road while failing to keep a single clean sheet during that sequence.
Tale of the Tape: 📊
📈 League Position: Celtic 1st | Hearts 3rd
⚽️ Goals: Celtic 2.0 | Hearts 2.4
🛡️ Conceded: Celtic 0.5 | Hearts 1.0
📈 Avg Expected Goals (xG via @fotmob): Celtic 2.76 (22.06 total) | Hearts 2.07 (16.57 total)
🎯 Avg xG on Target (xGOT): Celtic 3.06 (24.50 total) | Hearts 2.11 (16.89 total)
📦 Avg Open Play xG: Celtic 2.51 (20.09 total) | Hearts 1.20 (9.57 total)
🚩 Avg Set Play xG: Celtic 0.25 (1.97 total) | Hearts 0.48 (3.86 total)
👟 Avg Poss: Celtic 61.8% | Hearts 54.4%
🎯 Avg Shots: Celtic 20.6 | Hearts 16.8
🥅 Avg On Target: Celtic 9.1 | Hearts 5.4
🧠 Big Chances Created: Celtic 5.1 | Hearts 3.0
❌ Big Chances Missed: Celtic 3.9 | Hearts 1.6
🚩 Avg Corners: Celtic 9.4 | Hearts 7.4
🎯 Accurate Crosses: Celtic 6.0 | Hearts 5.1
✅ Succ. Passes: Celtic 547.2 | Hearts 355.6
🧩 Pass Accuracy: Celtic 87.5% | Hearts 79.2%
🔑 Key Passes: Celtic 15.5 | Hearts 12.2
🩹 Avg Fouls: Celtic 9.9 | Hearts 13.0
🟨 Avg Yellows: Celtic 1.2 | Hearts 1.5
Form Guide: 📈🟢⚪ Celtic (Premiership): W - W - W - L - W
🇱🇻 Hearts (Premiership): W - W - L - D - W
⚔️ Last 5 H2H (League): Celtic 2 Wins | 1 Draw | Hearts 2 Wins (Celtic: W - L - L - D - W | Hearts: L - W - W - D - L)
The History: 📙
Across 36 Premiership encounters, Celtic dominate the head-to-head with 27 victories compared to Hearts' seven, while just two matches have ended in a draw.
The home advantage at Celtic Park has been substantial, with the league leaders winning 26 of their last 29 home league games against Hearts, though the Jambos have managed to snatch two wins from their last six visits.
The 3-1 scoreline has been the single most frequent outcome in this fixture, occurring five times. Goals are practically guaranteed when these two meet, with both teams finding the net in 20 of their previous 36 encounters. Celtic frequently finish games strongly against Hearts at home, scoring most often in the 75th to 90th-minute window.
Team News: 🏥
Celtic welcome back Jota and Landon Emenalo to the squad, providing a timely boost for Martin O'Neill. Cameron Carter-Vickers is a doubt with a hamstring issue, while Yang Hyun-jun and Alistair Johnston are both set to remain sidelined with injuries.
Hearts will have Tomas Magnusson available for selection following his suspension. However, Wouter Vrancken remains without the services of Ageu, Craig Halkett, Blair Spittal, and Tom Renaud due to injury.
Prediction: 🔮
This is a heavyweight clash featuring the league's most relentless chance creators against the Premiership's most lethal finishers. Celtic generate a staggering 22.06 total xG (2.76 per match) and create 5.1 big chances per game, largely through open play where Benjamin Nygren has been dominant. No player in the division has more goal involvements or chances created from open play than Nygren this season.
Hearts arrive with incredible attacking efficiency. Josh McPake has either scored or assisted six of their last seven open-play goals, while the Jambos pose the division's biggest dead-ball threat with a league-high six set-piece goals. Interestingly, each of Hearts' last four league goals against Celtic have come from set plays. Despite Hearts' attacking firepower, Celtic's overwhelming possession (61.8%) and sheer volume of chances—averaging 20.6 shots and a massive 3.06 xGOT per game—should eventually overwhelm a visiting side that has struggled for clean sheets on the road.
Score Prediction: Celtic 3 - 1 Hearts
#SPFL #CelticFC #HeartsFC #CELHEA
🏟️ MATCH PREVIEW: Dundee v Rangers
Live on Sky Sports
📍 Dens Park | ⏰ 8pm KO | 👨⚖️ Referee: Duncan Nicolson
The Context: 📉
Dundee host Rangers at Dens Park with the hosts aiming to protect a strong top-four start, while the visitors are chasing down the league leaders. Steven Pressley's side come into the clash in confident mood, having secured back-to-back 2-1 victories over Motherwell and Falkirk.
Meanwhile, Derek McInnes's Rangers have been a relentless force, arriving in the City of Discovery on a six-match Premiership winning streak. A victory for the Gers would take them to seven consecutive league wins for the first time since February 2024 under Philippe Clement.
Tale of the Tape: 📊
📈 League Position: Dundee 4th | Rangers 2nd
⚽️ Goals: Dundee 1.4 | Rangers 1.4
🛡️ Conceded: Dundee 1.0 | Rangers 0.6
📈 Avg Expected Goals (xG via @fotmob): Dundee 1.31 (10.50 total) | Rangers 2.22 (17.76 total)
🎯 Avg xG on Target (xGOT): Dundee 1.34 (10.70 total) | Rangers 1.60 (12.81 total)
📦 Avg Open Play xG: Dundee 0.79 (6.30 total) | Rangers 1.52 (12.18 total)
🚩 Avg Set Play xG: Dundee 0.42 (3.38 total) | Rangers 0.50 (3.99 total)
👟 Avg Poss: Dundee 37.8% | Rangers 54.5%
🎯 Avg Shots: Dundee 12.6 | Rangers 20.1
🥅 Avg On Target: Dundee 4.5 | Rangers 6.2
🧠 Big Chances Created: Dundee 2.8 | Rangers 3.0
❌ Big Chances Missed: Dundee 1.8 | Rangers 2.1
🚩 Avg Corners: Dundee 5.1 | Rangers 7.4
🎯 Accurate Crosses: Dundee 4.2 | Rangers 6.5
✅ Succ. Passes: Dundee 249.0 | Rangers 365.2
🧩 Pass Accuracy: Dundee 73.1% | Rangers 80.2%
🔑 Key Passes: Dundee 7.9 | Rangers 14.1
🩹 Avg Fouls: Dundee 10.8 | Rangers 13.9
🟨 Avg Yellows: Dundee 1.2 | Rangers 1.6
Form Guide: 📈
🔵🔴 Dundee (Premiership): L - D - L - W - W
🔵⚪ Rangers (Premiership): W - W - W - W - W
⚔️ Last 5 H2H (League): Dundee 0 Wins | 2 Draws | Rangers 3 Wins (Dundee: D - L - D - L - L | Rangers: D - W - D - W - W)
The History: 📙
Across 22 recent Premiership meetings, Rangers have dominated with 16 victories (72.7%) to Dundee's two (9.1%), alongside four draws.
Dundee are winless in 20 meetings with Rangers across all competitions since a 2-1 league victory back in November 2017.
The visitors have kept 11 clean sheets in their top-flight clashes with Dundee, and have won six of their last eight visits to Dens Park.
Matches between the two sides frequently produce goals, with over 2.5 goals landing in 68.2% of their league encounters, and the 1-1 and 4-0 scorelines standing out as the most common outcomes.
Rangers often find late breakthroughs in this fixture, scoring most frequently in the 75th to 90th-minute window.
Team News: 🏥
Dundee will make late fitness decisions on Drey Wright, Ryan Finnigan, and Charlie Reilly ahead of kickoff, while Zan Besir is available again following suspension. The hosts will be without their top scorer Joe Westley for four weeks with an ankle issue, and Bobby Wales has returned to his parent club for specialist assessment. Simon Murray, Finlay Robertson, and Jack Moorhouse all remain long-term absentees with ACL injuries.
For Rangers, Ross McCrorie is ruled out for the next three weeks after picking up a hamstring problem. Cammy Devlin also remains unavailable with a hamstring injury of his own. Dujon Sterling has returned to training after recovering from illness and a minor hamstring issue, but Lawrence Shankland, Youssef Chermiti, and Daisuke Yokota all remain sidelined.
Prediction: 🔮
Rangers bring overwhelming attacking volume into this contest, averaging 20.1 shots and 14.1 key passes per game. Their underlying metrics are equally imposing, having generated 17.76 total xG (2.22 per match) and a commanding 12.81 xGOT so far this season. Dundee are structured to absorb pressure with just 37.8% average possession, but they boast a clinical edge themselves, generating 10.70 xGOT from 10.50 total xG. However, with Dundee missing their leading marksman Joe Westley, and Rangers hunting down a seventh straight league win while conceding just 0.6 goals per game, the visitors possess the firepower and defensive solidity to secure all three points.
Score Prediction: Dundee 0 - 2 Rangers
#SPFL #DundeeFC #RangersFC #DUNRAN
🏟️ MATCH PREVIEW: St Johnstone v Dundee United
📍 McDiarmid Park | ⏰ 3pm KO | 👨⚖️ Referee: Ross Hardie
The Context: 📉
Simo Valakari's St Johnstone enter the weekend buzzing after a gritty 1-0 victory over Aberdeen, looking to secure back-to-back Scottish Premiership wins for the first time since February 2025. Josh Fowler leads the line in lethal form, topping the league scoring charts with five goals from just 10 total shots this season—a remarkable 50% conversion rate.
Jim Goodwin's Dundee United travel to Perth seeking their third consecutive league victory, a feat they have not achieved since April 2025. The Terrors have enjoyed their recent trips to McDiarmid Park, winning four of their last seven top-flight visits, and sit just above the Saints in 5th place on the table.
Tale of the Tape: 📊
📈 League Position: St Johnstone 6th | Dundee United 5th
⚽️ Goals: St Johnstone 1.2 | Dundee United 1.2
🛡️ Conceded: St Johnstone 1.3 | Dundee United 1.4
📈 Avg Expected Goals (xG via @fotmob): St Johnstone 1.30 (10.42 total) | Dundee United 1.64 (13.08 total)
🎯 Avg xG on Target (xGOT): St Johnstone 1.32 (10.58 total) | Dundee United 1.71 (13.64 total)
📦 Avg Open Play xG: St Johnstone 0.78 (6.25 total) | Dundee United 0.97 (7.78 total)
🚩 Avg Set Play xG: St Johnstone 0.23 (1.82 total) | Dundee United 0.56 (4.51 total)
👟 Avg Poss: St Johnstone 47.4% | Dundee United 49.6%
🎯 Avg Shots: St Johnstone 9.9 | Dundee United 16.1
🥅 Avg On Target: St Johnstone 3.4 | Dundee United 5.4
🧠 Big Chances Created: St Johnstone 2.2 | Dundee United 2.4
❌ Big Chances Missed: St Johnstone 1.4 | Dundee United 1.5
🚩 Avg Corners: St Johnstone 3.2 | Dundee United 6.2
🎯 Accurate Crosses: St Johnstone 3.4 | Dundee United 5.6
✅ Succ. Passes: St Johnstone 354.8 | Dundee United 312.6
🧩 Pass Accuracy: St Johnstone 79.8% | Dundee United 77.9%
🔑 Key Passes: St Johnstone 7.4 | Dundee United 12.6
🩹 Avg Fouls: St Johnstone 10.8 | Dundee United 11.9
🟨 Avg Yellows: St Johnstone 1.5 | Dundee United 2.4
Form Guide: 📈
🔵⚪ St Johnstone (Premiership): D - W - L - D - W
🟠⚫ Dundee United (Premiership): W - L - D - W - W
⚔️ Last 5 H2H (League): St Johnstone 2 Wins | 0 Draws | Dundee United 3 Wins (St Johnstone: W - W - L - L - L | Dundee United: L - L - W - W - W)
The History: 📙
Across 13 Premiership meetings between the two sides, Dundee United hold a slight edge with five wins compared to St Johnstone's four, alongside four draws. The visitors have dominated the recent head-to-head, winning all three of the most recent league encounters.
These matchups are often tightly contested affairs with razor-thin margins. The 0-1 and 1-2 scorelines are the most frequent outcomes, while the average winning margin in recent clashes sits at just 0.77 goals. Dundee United tend to finish strongly in this fixture, scoring most often between the 45th and 60th minutes and the 75th and 90th minutes.
Team News: 🏥
St Johnstone receive a significant defensive boost with centre-back Cheick Diabate returning to the squad following his suspension.
Dundee United report no fresh injury concerns after last weekend's victory against Hibernian. Left-back Will Ferry continues to be monitored after picking up a knock during the international break, while Mehdi Merghem and Emmanuel Agyes remain sidelined with knee injuries.
Prediction: 🔮
Dundee United bring genuine attacking volume to Perth, averaging 16.1 shots and 12.6 key passes per game. Their underlying numbers reflect this dominance, having accumulated 13.08 total xG and a clinical 13.64 xGOT across the season.
St Johnstone operate with far less volume but possess the league's most clinical finisher in Josh Fowler. Despite averaging just 9.9 shots and 10.42 total xG, Valakari's men are resilient and structured. Given Dundee United's formidable away form in this fixture and their superior chance creation metrics, Jim Goodwin's side look primed to edge another low-scoring battle.
Score Prediction: St Johnstone 0 - 1 Dundee United
#SPFL #StJohnstoneFC #DundeeUnitedFC #STJDUT
🏟️ MATCH PREVIEW: Kilmarnock v Motherwell
📍 Rugby Park | ⏰ 3pm KO | 👨⚖️ Referee: Callum Scott
The Context: 📉
Neil McCann's Kilmarnock sit bottom of the Premiership table in 12th place and are desperately seeking answers at Rugby Park. Killie have recorded the joint-fewest points (1) and joint-fewest goals (2) at home this season, while possessing the league's leakiest home defence with 11 goals conceded. They enter the weekend having lost their last two league outings.
Alfred Johansson's Motherwell arrive in Ayrshire aiming to halt a severe dip in form that has seen them lose four consecutive Premiership fixtures for the first time since February 2025.
Despite sitting 9th in the standings, the Steelmen will take confidence from their recent track record in this exact matchup, having won three of their last four league games against Kilmarnock.
Tale of the Tape: 📊
📈 League Position: Kilmarnock 12th | Motherwell 9th
⚽️ Goals: Kilmarnock 0.9 | Motherwell 1.1
🛡️ Conceded: Kilmarnock 2.3 | Motherwell 1.6
📈 Avg Expected Goals (xG via @fotmob): Kilmarnock 1.05 (8.40 total) | Motherwell 1.49 (11.90 total)
🎯 Avg xG on Target (xGOT): Kilmarnock 0.96 (7.71 total) | Motherwell 1.23 (9.87 total)
📦 Avg Open Play xG: Kilmarnock 0.77 (6.13 total) | Motherwell 1.14 (9.10 total)
🚩 Avg Set Play xG: Kilmarnock 0.28 (2.23 total) | Motherwell 0.15 (1.20 total)
👟 Avg Poss: Kilmarnock 42.4% | Motherwell 57.6%
🎯 Avg Shots: Kilmarnock 10.1 | Motherwell 13.8
🥅 Avg On Target: Kilmarnock 4.0 | Motherwell 4.4
🧠 Big Chances Created: Kilmarnock 1.8 | Motherwell 2.1
❌ Big Chances Missed: Kilmarnock 1.5 | Motherwell 1.6
🚩 Avg Corners: Kilmarnock 4.6 | Motherwell 5.1
🎯 Accurate Crosses: Kilmarnock 4.5 | Motherwell 3.9
✅ Succ. Passes: Kilmarnock 294.8 | Motherwell 501.9
🧩 Pass Accuracy: Kilmarnock 77.1% | Motherwell 87.8%
🔑 Key Passes: Kilmarnock 8.1 | Motherwell 10.9
🩹 Avg Fouls: Kilmarnock 12.1 | Motherwell 9.8
🟨 Avg Yellows: Kilmarnock 2.1 | Motherwell 1.5
Form Guide: 📈
🔵⚪ Kilmarnock (Premiership): L - D - W - D - L
🟡🔴 Motherwell (Premiership): W - L - L - L - L
⚔️ Last 5 H2H (League): Kilmarnock 1 Win | 1 Draw | Motherwell 3 Wins (Kilmarnock: W - L - D - L - L | Motherwell: L - W - D - W - W)
The History: 📙
Across 30 Scottish Premiership meetings, Motherwell hold the historical advantage with 13 victories (43.3%) to Kilmarnock's 9 (30.0%), alongside 8 draws.
The Steelmen have found a clear edge in recent encounters, winning three of their last four top-flight matches against Killie (D1)—matching the exact same number of wins they had managed in their previous 12 meetings combined.
Kilmarnock have lost back-to-back league games against Motherwell and are trying to avoid losing three in a row in this fixture for the first time since September 2017.
Matches between these two sides are traditionally tightly contested, with the 0-1 and 2-0 scorelines standing as the most frequent outcomes, each occurring four times. Recent meetings have seen an average winning margin of 1.27 goals.
Motherwell have shown a tendency to finish strongly against Kilmarnock, most frequently finding the net in the final 15 minutes (75'–90') of recent head-to-head clashes.
Team News: 🏥
Kilmarnock remain without first-choice goalkeeper Max Stryjek, who is out for a considerable period with a knee injury.
Motherwell are boosted by the return of defender Johnny Koutroumbis. However, Alfred Johansson will be forced to shuffle his pack elsewhere, with Dylan Williams, Regan Charles-Cook, Oscar Priestman, and Callum Hendry all ruled out of the trip to Ayrshire.
Prediction: 🔮
This clash pits the league's poorest home team against a visiting side desperate to end a four-match slide. Kilmarnock have been exceptionally porous at Rugby Park, and their underlying metrics reveal a severe lack of attacking thrust, generating just 8.40 total xG (1.05 per 90) and averaging a mere 4.0 shots on target per match.
While Motherwell's form has collapsed recently, their statistical process remains much healthier. The Steelmen dominate possession (57.6%) and have generated 11.90 total xG this season, driven by 9.10 open-play xG and an impressive 10.9 key passes per game. Given Motherwell's recent psychological edge in this fixture and Kilmarnock's dreadful defensive record on home soil, Johansson's side should dictate the tempo and eventually break through to claim a crucial victory.
Score Prediction: Kilmarnock 0 - 2 Motherwell
#SPFL #KilmarnockFC #MotherwellFC #KILMOT
🏟️ MATCH PREVIEW: Hibernian v Falkirk
📍 Easter Road | ⏰ 3pm KO | 👨⚖️ Referee: Nick Walsh
The Context: 📉
Marink Reedijk makes his home debut in the Easter Road dugout desperately searching for a catalyst to ignite Hibernian's stalling season. Sitting 10th in the Premiership table, the Hibees are mired in a five-match winless streak (D1 L4) and enter the weekend looking to bounce back from a narrow 1-0 defeat to Dundee United. Tightening up the backline is an urgent priority, as Hibernian are without a clean sheet in 14 league games—their longest run without a top-flight shutout since December 2019.
John McGlynn's Falkirk arrive in Leith occupying 11th place and hoping to kickstart their own campaign after a 2-1 home loss to Dundee last time out. The Bairns are the only team in the Scottish Premiership yet to record an away victory this season, managing three draws and one defeat from their four road trips. Breaking their Easter Road hoodoo will be tough, as Falkirk are winless in six top-flight visits to Hibernian (D2 L4) since a 1-0 victory back in September 2006.
Tale of the Tape: 📊
📈 League Position: Hibernian 10th | Falkirk 11th
⚽️ Goals: Hibernian 1.0 | Falkirk 0.9
🛡️ Conceded: Hibernian 1.5 | Falkirk 1.4
📈 Avg Expected Goals (xG via @fotmob): Hibernian 1.59 (12.73 total) | Falkirk 1.14 (9.10 total)
🎯 Avg xG on Target (xGOT): Hibernian 1.22 (9.73 total) | Falkirk 0.81 (6.47 total)
📦 Avg Open Play xG: Hibernian 0.94 (7.49 total) | Falkirk 0.82 (6.58 total)
🚩 Avg Set Play xG: Hibernian 0.36 (2.88 total) | Falkirk 0.22 (1.73 total)
👟 Avg Poss: Hibernian 50.6% | Falkirk 47.8%
🎯 Avg Shots: Hibernian 16.4 | Falkirk 11.5
🥅 Avg On Target: Hibernian 4.4 | Falkirk 3.1
🧠 Big Chances Created: Hibernian 2.0 | Falkirk 1.4
❌ Big Chances Missed: Hibernian 1.2 | Falkirk 1.2
🚩 Avg Corners: Hibernian 6.9 | Falkirk 4.5
🎯 Accurate Crosses: Hibernian 5.0 | Falkirk 4.1
✅ Succ. Passes: Hibernian 363.4 | Falkirk 323.1
🧩 Pass Accuracy: Hibernian 80.9% | Falkirk 76.9%
🔑 Key Passes: Hibernian 11.2 | Falkirk 8.4
🩹 Avg Fouls: Hibernian 13.0 | Falkirk 14.9
🟨 Avg Yellows: Hibernian 1.2 | Falkirk 1.8
Form Guide: 📈
🟢⚪ Hibernian (Premiership): L - L - L - D - L
🔵⚪ Falkirk (Premiership): L - D - W - D - L
⚔️ Last 4 H2H (League): Hibernian 2 Wins | 1 Draw | Falkirk 1 Win
The History: 📙
Across their four most recent Premiership encounters, Hibernian hold the edge with two victories to Falkirk's one, alongside a single draw. The Hibees have enjoyed consistent dominance in this fixture over the longer term, having lost just one of their last 14 top-flight meetings with the Bairns—a 4-1 away defeat in January of last season.
Striking first has been absolutely decisive when these two sides clash. In three of the last three Premiership matches between Hibernian and Falkirk, the team that scored the opening goal went on to win the match. Hibernian have opened the scoring in three of the four recent top-flight meetings. However, it often takes time for the home side to break through, as Hibernian most frequently find the net in the 30th to 45th-minute window.
Recent meetings have produced an average winning margin of 2.0 goals, but Falkirk's matches of late have been tighter, defensive affairs. Under 3.5 goals has landed in 10 of Falkirk's last 12 Premiership fixtures, and in 100% of their last five outings.
Team News: 🏥
Hibernian welcome back Adam Mayor and Jamie McGrath, but their injury list continues to mount. Callum Wright, Nathan Lowe, and the suspended Jacob Devaney have all picked up recent issues, joining Kanayo Megwa (thigh), Rocky Bushiri (Achilles), and Jordan Obita (calf) on the sidelines.
Falkirk make the trip to Edinburgh without the services of Aodhan Doherty (foot), Joe Gardner (thigh), Keelan Adams, and Ethan Laidlaw (both ankle).
Prediction: 🔮
The underlying metrics suggest Hibernian are heavily underperforming their attacking potential. The Hibees average a massive 16.4 shots per game and generate an impressive 12.73 total xG (1.59 per 90), but wastefulness and an xGOT of just 9.73 highlight their struggles to properly test opposition goalkeepers. Defensively, their failure to keep a clean sheet in 14 league matches remains a glaring vulnerability that Reedijk must solve.
Falkirk are structured to absorb pressure but lack cutting edge on their travels. Generating just 9.10 total xG and a very low 6.47 xGOT across their campaign (0.81 per match), the Bairns have found it difficult to punish teams. While Hibernian's leaky defence gives Falkirk a genuine path to goal, the sheer volume of chances created by the home side—led by Martin Boyle's direct threat—should eventually break down a Falkirk team that remains winless on the road.
Score Prediction: Hibernian 2 - 1 Falkirk
#SPFL #HibernianFC #FalkirkFC #HIBFAL
🏟️ MATCH PREVIEW: Aberdeen v St Mirren
📍 Pittodrie Stadium | ⏰ 3pm KO | 👨⚖️ Referee: John Beaton
The Context: 📉
Stephen Robinson's Aberdeen sit 8th in the Premiership table following a frustrating 1-0 home defeat to St Johnstone last Sunday. The Dons have failed to score in each of their last three home league games despite firing 43 shots, and are looking to avoid drawing a blank in four consecutive home top-flight fixtures for the first time since September 2012.
Craig McLeish's St Mirren sit one spot higher in 7th, but travel north on a four-match Premiership losing streak after suffering a heavy 5-0 defeat at Tynecastle last weekend. A defeat today would mark five consecutive league losses for the first time since October 2020.
Despite their current slump, St Mirren have relished this fixture in recent seasons, going unbeaten in nine of their last 11 Premiership clashes against Aberdeen and winning four of their last seven league visits to Pittodrie (D1 L2).
Craig McLeish holds a 100% winning record across his two previous Premiership meetings against Stephen Robinson (2 wins from 2).
Tale of the Tape: 📊
📈 League Position: Aberdeen 8th | St Mirren 7th
⚽️ Goals: Aberdeen 0.9 | St Mirren 1.0
🛡️ Conceded: Aberdeen 1.1 | St Mirren 1.8
📈 Avg Expected Goals (xG via @fotmob): Aberdeen 1.10 (8.77 total) | St Mirren 1.50 (12.02 total)
🎯 Avg xG on Target (xGOT): Aberdeen 1.06 (8.51 total) | St Mirren 1.26 (10.05 total)
📦 Avg Open Play xG: Aberdeen 0.58 (4.60 total) | St Mirren 1.09 (8.68 total)
🚩 Avg Set Play xG: Aberdeen 0.42 (3.37 total) | St Mirren 0.22 (1.78 total)
👟 Avg Poss: Aberdeen 47.8% | St Mirren 48.5%
🎯 Avg Shots: Aberdeen 11.4 | St Mirren 13.5
🥅 Avg On Target: Aberdeen 2.9 | St Mirren 3.5
🧠 Big Chances Created: Aberdeen 1.5 | St Mirren 2.4
❌ Big Chances Missed: Aberdeen 1.0 | St Mirren 1.6
🚩 Avg Corners: Aberdeen 6.1 | St Mirren 4.2
🎯 Accurate Crosses: Aberdeen 5.4 | St Mirren 2.9
✅ Succ. Passes: Aberdeen 312.5 | St Mirren 352.9
🧩 Pass Accuracy: Aberdeen 77.9% | St Mirren 80.5%
🔑 Key Passes: Aberdeen 7.9 | St Mirren 10.0
🩹 Avg Fouls: Aberdeen 11.8 | St Mirren 13.0
🟨 Avg Yellows: Aberdeen 3.0 | St Mirren 2.5
Form Guide: 📈
🔴⚪ Aberdeen (Premiership): L - D - W - D - L
⚫⚪ St Mirren (Premiership): W - L - L - L - L
⚔️ Last 5 H2H (League): Aberdeen 1 Win | 1 Draw | St Mirren 3 Wins (Aberdeen: L - W - D - L - L | St Mirren: W - L - D - W - W)
The History: 📙
Across 28 Scottish Premiership meetings, St Mirren lead with 12 wins (42.9%) to Aberdeen's 9 (32.1%), with 7 draws (25.0%).
Aberdeen have won just one of their last seven league meetings with St Mirren (D1 L5)—a 1-0 away triumph in October 2025.
After going winless in 15 previous league trips to Pittodrie, St Mirren have won four of their last seven top-flight visits to Aberdeen (D1 L2). Historically, 7 of Aberdeen's 9 Premiership wins in this fixture (77.8%) have come at home.
St Mirren have opened the scoring in six of the last seven Premiership clashes between the sides, and have netted a late goal (75'–90') in each of their last three meetings against the Dons. Aberdeen strike most frequently in the 30th to 45th-minute window against the Buddies.
The 2-1 scoreline is the most common outcome in this Premiership fixture, occurring four times, while both teams have scored in 16 of the 28 encounters.
Team News: 🏥
Aberdeen captain and top scorer Kevin Nisbet (3 league goals, 2 assists) is a major doubt with a hamstring issue, while Ayoub Mouloua will be assessed as he recovers from a head knock sustained last weekend. Hicham Mahou is set to miss out through illness, Kristers Tobers remains sidelined.
St Mirren forward Nikolas Agrafiotis (calf) is a doubt, while Keanu Baccus, Jonah Ayunga, and Malik Dijksteel remain ruled out. In a timely boost for the visitors, defenders Richard King and Jayden Richardson are both in line to return.
Prediction: 🔮
Both sides are searching for cutting edge in the final third after drawing blanks last weekend. Aberdeen generated 1.69 xG against St Johnstone without finding a breakthrough, taking their season tally to 8.77 total xG (1.10 per 90) and 8.51 xGOT. With open-play creation proving difficult (4.60 open-play xG), the Dons have leaned heavily on dead balls (3.37 set-play xG) and wide deliveries, ranking 2nd in the league for total crosses (25.4 per game).
St Mirren boast a much stronger open-play process—racking up 12.02 total xG (1.50 per 90), 8.68 open-play xG, and 2.4 big chances created per match—but they have failed to score in three straight games while conceding an average of 2.2 goals across their last five outings. With Nisbet an injury doubt for Aberdeen and the Premiership's two most heavily booked sides going head-to-head (3.0 and 2.5 yellows per game), a feisty, closely contested stalemate is on the cards.
Score Prediction: Aberdeen 1 - 1 St Mirren
#SPFL #AberdeenFC #StMirrenFC #ABESTM
📊 PREMIERSHIP MATCHDAY 8: SHOTS vs xG REPORT 🏴🎯
Examining shot volume against expected goals (xG) and expected goals on target (xGOT) reveals who generated genuine quality, who was wasteful, and who showed ruthless efficiency this weekend.
📋 Shot Volume vs xG Generated
•🟢⚪ Celtic: 25 Shots (19 in box | 15 on target) ➡️ 2.85 xG | 3.58 xGOT (2 Goals)
•🇱🇻 Hearts: 18 Shots (14 in box | 6 on target) ➡️ 3.43 xG (1.86 NP xG) | 3.50 xGOT (5 Goals)
•🔵🔴 Dundee: 22 Shots (16 in box | 10 on target) ➡️ 1.41 xG | 1.44 xGOT (2 Goals)
•🔵⚪ Rangers: 18 Shots (12 in box | 4 on target) ➡️ 1.93 xG | 1.12 xGOT (3 Goals)
•🟠⚫ Dundee United: 17 Shots (10 in box | 8 on target) ➡️ 1.84 xG | 1.96 xGOT (1 Goal)
•🔵⚪ Falkirk: 16 Shots (11 in box | 5 on target) ➡️ 1.97 xG (1.19 NP xG) | 1.50 xGOT (1 Goal)
•🔴⚪ Aberdeen: 22 Shots (15 in box | 5 on target) ➡️ 1.23 xG | 0.40 xGOT (0 Goals)
•🔵⚪ Kilmarnock: 13 Shots (11 in box | 5 on target) ➡️ 1.25 xG | 0.90 xGOT (1 Goal)
•🟢⚪ Hibernian: 13 Shots (7 in box | 4 on target) ➡️ 0.83 xG | 0.54 xGOT (0 Goals)
•🟡🔴 Motherwell: 8 Shots (6 in box | 2 on target) ➡️ 1.05 xG | 0.38 xGOT (0 Goals)
•⚫⚪ St Mirren: 8 Shots (4 in box | 1 on target) ➡️ 0.68 xG | 0.63 xGOT (0 Goals)
•🔵⚪ St Johnstone: 5 Shots (5 in box | 1 on target) ➡️ 1.10 xG (0.31 NP xG) | 0.80 xGOT (1 Goal via Pen)
🔍 Key Shot vs xG Takeaways
•St Johnstone’s Smash-and-Grab at Pittodrie: The ultimate statistical robbery. Aberdeen registered 22 shots (15 inside the box) but mustered a poor 0.40 xGOT and zero goals. St Johnstone managed just 5 attempts all afternoon and a tiny 0.31 Non-Penalty xG—their sole shot on target was the converted penalty that snatched all three points.
•Hearts’ Clinical Penalty & Open-Play Masterclass: Hearts racked up 3.43 xG aided by two Calvin Miller spot-kicks, but their open-play numbers were just as lethal. Generating 3.50 xGOT from just 6 shots on target meant five found the back of the net.
•Celtic’s Relentless Target Practice: Celtic delivered weekend-highs across every shooting metric: 25 shots, 19 inside the box, and 15 on target. A 3.58 xGOT (+0.73 vs xG) underlines how consistently they tested Motherwell's rearguard.
•Rangers Defy the xGOT Line: Rangers generated 1.93 xG but managed only 4 shots on target and an xGOT of just 1.12. Yet, three of those four found the net as Derek McInnes' men punished Killie with ruthless finishing.
•Dundee’s Pure Volume Pressure: Dundee fired 22 attempts (10 on target) at Falkirk. Even with 8 shots blocked by desperate defending and an average xG per shot of just 0.064, their persistent pressure yielded a dramatic 91st-minute winner.
Which team's shot-to-xG conversion stood out to you the most this weekend?
#SPFL #ScottishPremiership #xG #FootballAnalytics #CelticFC #HeartsFC #RangersFC #AberdeenFC #StJohnstoneFC #DundeeFC
🏟️ MATCH PREVIEW: Aberdeen v St Johnstone
📍 Pittodrie Stadium | ⏰ 2pm KO | 📺 Live on Premier Sports | 👨⚖️ Referee: Ryan Lee
The Context: 📉
•Dons' Steadying Sequence: Stephen Robinson's Aberdeen enter the weekend unbeaten in their last three league outings (W1 D2), including a commanding 4-0 win at Fir Park and a battling point away at Easter Road.
•Saints' Resilient Streak: Simo Valakari's St Johnstone have recovered five points from losing positions this season—more than any other club in the Scottish Premiership.
•Travel Troubles for Perth Saints: St Johnstone have struggled for consistency on the road, winning just one of their last 16 away Premiership matches (D3 L12) and losing six of their last seven away fixtures.
Tale of the Tape: 📊
•📈 League Position: Aberdeen 8th | St Johnstone 7th
•⚽️ Goals: Aberdeen 1.0 | St Johnstone 1.3
•🛡️ Conceded: Aberdeen 1.1 | St Johnstone 1.4
•📈 Avg Expected Goals (xG via @fotmob): Aberdeen 1.01 (7.08 total) | St Johnstone 1.31 (9.17 total)
•🎯 Avg xG on Target (xGOT): Aberdeen 1.04 (7.27 total) | St Johnstone 1.40 (9.80 total)
•📦 Avg Open Play xG: Aberdeen 0.46 (3.21 total) | St Johnstone 0.83 (5.83 total)
•🚩 Avg Set Play xG: Aberdeen 0.44 (3.07 total) | St Johnstone 0.25 (1.78 total)
•👟 Avg Poss: Aberdeen 45.1% | St Johnstone 49.3%
•🎯 Avg Shots: Aberdeen 9.9 | St Johnstone 10.6
•🥅 Avg On Target: Aberdeen 2.6 | St Johnstone 3.7
•🧠 Big Chances Created: Aberdeen 1.4 | St Johnstone 2.4
•❌ Big Chances Missed: Aberdeen 0.9 | St Johnstone 1.4
•🚩 Avg Corners: Aberdeen 5.1 | St Johnstone 3.4
•🎯 Accurate Crosses: Aberdeen 4.6 | St Johnstone 3.7
•✅ Succ. Passes: Aberdeen 291.1 | St Johnstone 373.6
•🧩 Pass Accuracy: Aberdeen 77.3% | St Johnstone 80.7%
•🔑 Key Passes: Aberdeen 6.9 | St Johnstone 8.0
•🩹 Avg Fouls: Aberdeen 12.4 | St Johnstone 10.9
•🟨 Avg Yellows: Aberdeen 3.3 | St Johnstone 1.7
Form Guide: 📈
•🔴⚪ Aberdeen (Premiership): L - L - D - W - D
•🔵⚪ St Johnstone (Premiership): L - D - W - L - D
•⚔️ Last 5 H2H (League): Aberdeen 2 Wins | 2 Draws | St Johnstone 1 Win (Aberdeen: L - W - W - D - D | St Johnstone: W - L - L - D - D)
The History: 📙
•Head-to-Head Record: Across 33 Premiership meetings between the clubs, Aberdeen have won 14 (42.4%) to St Johnstone's 7 (21.2%), with 12 draws (36.4%).
•Long-Term Dons Dominance: Aberdeen are unbeaten in 25 of their last 31 Premiership meetings against St Johnstone, with the Saints winning just one of their last 10 league clashes against the Dons (D4 L5).
•Defensive Resilience: Aberdeen have kept 15 clean sheets (45.5%) across those 33 matches, while St Johnstone have recorded 12 shutouts (36.4%).
•Low-Scoring Pattern: Under 2.5 goals has landed in 78.8% (26 of 33) of Premiership fixtures between these two sides. Both teams have scored in just 11 of those 33 games (33.3%).
•Most Common Outcomes: The 0-1 and 1-1 scorelines are the joint-most frequent results in this fixture, occurring seven times each.
•Late Threat (60'–75'): In recent head-to-head meetings, both Aberdeen and St Johnstone register goals most frequently in the 60th to 75th-minute window.
Team News: 🏥
•🔴⚪ Aberdeen: Midfielder Brad Lyons and Emmanuel Gyamfi have both returned to contention, leaving defender Kristers Tobers (knee) as the Dons' only confirmed absentee. Leading marksman Kevin Nisbet (3 league goals, 2 assists) will spearhead the home attack.
•🔵⚪ St Johnstone: On-loan Charlton defender Zach Mitchell has returned to his parent club following a season-ending knee injury. Cheick Diabaté is suspended following his red card against Falkirk before the break. Centre-back Božo Mikulić is pushing for a return after coming through two closed-doors games. The Premiership's joint-top scorer Josh Fowler (4 goals) leads the line alongside Jamie Gullan (2 assists).
Prediction: 🔮
Pittodrie has traditionally been a tough proving ground for visiting Saints sides, and Aberdeen's defensive shape has tightened considerably under Stephen Robinson (conceding just 1.1 goals per match). While the Dons have generated a modest 7.08 total xG (1.01 per 90) and average just 2.6 shots on target per match, they possess a potent set-piece weapon (3.07 set-play xG, accounting for 43% of their expected goals).
St Johnstone carry genuine individual danger in Josh Fowler and generate a solid 9.17 xG, but defensive suspensions to Diabaté and Mitchell leave them vulnerable at the back. Coupled with St Johnstone winning just once on their travels in their last 16 attempts and a fixture history dominated by low-scoring margins, Aberdeen's home advantage and set-piece threat should see them narrowly edge a physical encounter.
Score Prediction: Aberdeen 1 - 0 St Johnstone
#SPFL #AberdeenFC #StJohnstoneFC #ABESTJ
🏟️ MATCH PREVIEW: Motherwell v Celtic
📍 Fir Park | ⏰ 12pm KO | 📺 Live on Sky Sports | 👨⚖️ Referee: Steven McLean
The Context: 📉
•Steelmen's Losing Rut: Alfred Johansson's Motherwell went into the break on the back of three consecutive league defeats—their longest losing streak in the Premiership since February 2025.
•Hoops Seeking Immediate Rebound: Martin O'Neill's side arrive under scrutiny after suffering three straight defeats in all competitions before the break (back-to-back losses to Rangers and a European reverse against Ferencváros). Despite that blip, Celtic sit top of the pile on underlying process and have won six of their seven league outings.
•Road Warriors: Celtic have won six consecutive away league matches and boast an imperious record at Fir Park, winning 11 of their last 12 Premiership visits.
Tale of the Tape: 📊
•📈 League Position: Motherwell 9th | Celtic 2nd
•⚽️ Goals: Motherwell 1.3 | Celtic 2.0
•🛡️ Conceded: Motherwell 1.6 | Celtic 0.6
•📈 Avg Expected Goals (xG via @fotmob): Motherwell 1.56 (10.93 total) | Celtic 2.74 (19.19 total)
•🎯 Avg xG on Target (xGOT): Motherwell 1.40 (9.80 total) | Celtic 2.88 (20.19 total)
•📦 Avg Open Play xG: Motherwell 1.16 (8.13 total) | Celtic 2.49 (17.46 total)
•🚩 Avg Set Play xG: Motherwell 0.17 (1.20 total) | Celtic 0.25 (1.73 total)
•👟 Avg Poss: Motherwell 61.0% | Celtic 61.1%
•🎯 Avg Shots: Motherwell 14.6 | Celtic 20.0
•🥅 Avg On Target: Motherwell 4.7 | Celtic 8.3
•🧠 Big Chances Created: Motherwell 2.0 | Celtic 5.4
•❌ Big Chances Missed: Motherwell 1.4 | Celtic 4.1
•🚩 Avg Corners: Motherwell 5.6 | Celtic 9.4
•🎯 Accurate Crosses: Motherwell 4.0 | Celtic 5.7
•✅ Succ. Passes: Motherwell 525.9 | Celtic 525.0
•🧩 Pass Accuracy: Motherwell 88.0% | Celtic 86.9%
•🔑 Key Passes: Motherwell 11.3 | Celtic 15.0
•🩹 Avg Fouls: Motherwell 10.7 | Celtic 10.7
•🟨 Avg Yellows: Motherwell 1.6 | Celtic 1.1
Form Guide: 📈
•🟡🔴 Motherwell (Premiership): D - W - L - L - L
•🟢⚪ Celtic (Premiership): W - W - W - W - L
•⚔️ Last 5 H2H (League): Motherwell 1 Win | 0 Draws | Celtic 4 Wins (Motherwell: L - L - W - L - L | Celtic: W - W - L - W - W)
The History: 📙
•Head-to-Head Supremacy: Across 36 Premiership clashes, Celtic have recorded 30 victories (83.3%) to Motherwell's 1 (2.8%), with 5 draws (13.9%).
•Fir Park Fortress for the Hoops: Celtic have won 11 of their past 12 league trips to Fir Park (L1), scoring 2+ goals in every single victory.
•Steelmen's Lone Victory: Motherwell have won just one of their last 34 league meetings against Celtic—a 2-0 triumph on home soil last season.
•Common Scorelines: The 1-1 and 2-0 results are the most frequent outcomes in this fixture, occurring 4 times apiece.
•Goal-Laden Affair: Over 2.5 goals has landed in 63.9% of top-flight meetings between the sides, featuring an average winning margin of 2.06 goals.
•Late Drama Trend: In recent head-to-head fixtures, both Celtic and Motherwell register goals most frequently between the 75th and 90th minutes.
Team News: 🏥
•🟡🔴 Motherwell: Alfred Johansson reported no fresh injury concerns from international action. Defender Dylan Williams is out with a hamstring issue, and John Koutroumbis misses out. Forward Regan Charles-Cook has stepped up his rehab but won't be risked today.
•🟢⚪ Celtic: Winger Jota could make a dramatic return after almost 18 months out. Cameron Carter-Vickers is a doubt, while Alistair Johnston (hamstring), Yang Hyun-jun, Callum Osmand (ankle), and Benjamin Nygren remain unavailable. Kieran Tierney provides a timely fitness boost in defence.
Prediction: 🔮
This promises to be an intriguing tactical battle between the two highest possession sides in the Premiership (both averaging 61% possession and over 525 completed passes per match). Motherwell want to dictate through the thirds under Johansson, but their expansive setup has left them exposed during their current three-game skid, conceding 1.6 goals per game.
Celtic lead the country by a distance in sheer chance creation—racking up 19.19 total xG (2.74 per 90), 5.4 big chances created per game, and 8.3 shots on target. While O'Neill's side will face an early examination at Fir Park, their firepower in open play (17.46 open-play xG) and long-standing dominance at this venue should see them return to winning ways.
Score Prediction: Motherwell 1 - 3 Celtic
#SPFL #MotherwellFC #CelticFC #MOTCEL
👑 SPFL PLAYER OF THE DAY: CALVIN MILLER 🇱🇻📊
Calvin Miller turned in a complete performance on the flank in Hearts’ 5-0 demolition of St Mirren at Tynecastle!
While his two composed spot-kicks on 32' and 50' grabbed the headlines, the underlying numbers show he was pulling the strings across every phase of play:
🇱🇻 Hearts 5 - 0 St Mirren ⚫⚪
⭐ Match Rating: 8.96
📊 Beyond the Penalties: The Full Breakdown
🎯 Direct Goal Threat & Clinical Finishing
•⚽ 2 Goals: Ice-cool from 12 yards out (32' & 50')
•🎁 1 Assist: Put another goal on a plate to register 3 direct goal involvements
•🥊 3 Total Shots / 2 on Target
•🏹 2 Passes into the Final Third
🧠 Playmaking & 1v1 Threat
•🔑 2 Key Passes
•🧠 1 Big Chance Created
•🕺 2 Successful Dribbles: Constantly isolated and beat his marker to stretch the Buddies' backline
🛡️ Defensive Shift & Work Rate
•🔄 4 Ball Recoveries: Relentless counter-pressing high up the pitch
•🧲 2 Interceptions
•⚔️ 2 Duels Won (from 4 contested)
A complete display on both sides of the ball to cap off a dream Saturday for the Gorgie faithful.
Is Calvin Miller currently in the conversation for the most in-form wide player in the Premiership? Let us know below! 👇🇱🇻⚽
#SPFL #ScottishPremiership #HeartOfMidlothian #HeartsFC #CalvinMiller #HMFC #HEASTM
📊 SPFL SATURDAY STAT ATTACK: THE NUMBERS THAT MATTER 🏴👀
Four Premiership clashes served up 13 goals, a 91st-minute comeback, and a Gorgie demolition. Here are the most eye-catching stats from today's action:
1. Hearts’ Lethal Efficiency (Hearts 5 - 0 St Mirren) 🇱🇻💥
•5 Goals from 6 Shots on Target: Wouter Vrancken's side delivered an absolute clinic in ruthless finishing, putting five past the Buddies despite testing the keeper just six times.
•Less Ball, Total Control: Hearts actually had less possession than St Mirren (49% to 51%), but completely steamrolled the physical battle—winning 63 duels to St Mirren's 33.
•Zero Service: St Mirren failed to complete a single accurate cross the entire 90 minutes (0/13).
2. Dundee's Falkirk Siege & A Card-Free Miracle (Falkirk 1 - 2 Dundee) 🔵🔴
•22 Shots on the Road: For a side with travel woes, Dundee battered the Falkirk goal with 22 total shots (16 inside the box!) and 10 on target.
•8 Saves for the Bairns: Falkirk’s keeper had to pull off 8 saves to keep his side in it before Ashley Hay snatched the 91st-minute winner.
•Referee Left His Cards at Home: Across a frantic, physical 90 minutes featuring 23 fouls, David Dickinson didn't dish out a single card.
3. Rangers Make Every Shot Count (Rangers 3 - 1 Kilmarnock) 🔵⚪
•3 Goals from 4 on Target: The Gers didn't need a mountain of attempts to put Killie away, converting 3 goals from just 4 shots on target.
•Take-On Central: Rangers attempted 25 dribbles (completing 14) and moved the ball at an 86% passing clip (435 completed passes).
•Ryan Naderi on Fire: Back-to-back scoring games for the forward, grabbing a first-half brace to make it six consecutive league wins for Derek McInnes' men.
4. Tannadice Trench Warfare (Dundee United 1 - 0 Hibernian) 🟠⚫
•Territory vs Cutting Edge: Marink Reedijk’s Hibs controlled 55% possession and completed 344 passes, but Dundee United created all the genuine danger—registering 8 shots on target to 4 and 15 key passes.
•Total Scrappage: A frantic contest with 59 throw-ins, 27 fouls, 6 yellow cards, and an 84th-minute red card for Hibs' Devaney.
Which stat jumps out to you the most from today's games? Let us know below! 👇⚽
#SPFL #ScottishPremiership #HeartsFC #RangersFC #DundeeFC #DundeeUnitedFC #Hibs #KilmarnockFC #StMirrenFC #FalkirkFC
🛑FULL TIME SCORES IN THE SCOTTISH PREMIERSHIP!
A dramatic late victory for Dundee, as United, Hearts and Rangers grab home wins.
Dundee United 1 - 0 Hibernian
Falkirk 1 - 2 Dundee
Hearts 5 - 0 St Mirren
Rangers 3 - 1 Kilmarnock
#SPFL #DundeeUnitedFC #HibernianFC #DUTHIB #FalkirkFC #DundeeFC #FALDUN #HeartsFC #StMirrenFC #HEASTM #RangersFC #KilmarnockFC #RANKIL