So much to learn, so little time.
Joined December 2022
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The lowest hanging fruit to improve with LLM capability is PowerPoints. Constantly spinning up decks is such a drag. So easy to feed the LLM a template and aesthetic that you wish your decks to have and then getting asked to make slides becomes such a non-issue.
It takes some time to iterate, but once you go back and forth on edits and produce a few decks, it’s so seamless. The LLM learns what you like and your leadership likes. The versions become less and the process becomes easier. Then you can create/code dashboards and apps that automatically generate slides based upon the data you have with the click of a button. What once took hours and days, now just takes a good prompt and a strong context window.
Dusting off this tweet from April because this gap in shared understanding of LLM capability is *widening*. It's now less "two groups of people speaking past each other" and more a sharp funnel.
- Napkin math somewhere around 6B people (~75% of the population) have barely come in contact with LLMs at all.
- Around 1-2B (~20%) are casual and infrequent users of free-tier ChatGPT-like products. This group sees derpy chatbots and treats them a bit like a better Google search, a writing aid, or etc. Maybe an agent tries to book you a flight. I have non-tech friends who (reasonably, imo) say they have not much use for it at all. Even many professionals outside of math&code are in this tier. For example, execs and many other functions spend a lot of their time talking to other people, so while they understand what is happening intellectually, it is still second-hand and a bit abstract.
- Now we get to professional use of frontier-grade LLMs in math&code. Somewhere around 20M people (0.2%) see first-hand that large, complex projects that used to take them weeks/months can now be completed by agents with a prompt. Building apps, copying apps, translating apps, decompiling apps from binaries... This has all happened very quickly and recently - less than 1 year ago, I was writing code manually by hand, typing memorized computer code commands into a code editor character by character, occasionally pressing Tab to autocomplete a little chunk of code.
- And finally we get to the ~5,000 people (~0.00006%) with access to frontier-grade systems internally. The external world has seen the preview. It looks like swarms of thousands of agents collaborating over weeks on software mega projects: minting zero days, running cyber attacks and defenses at machine speeds, discovering new science, advancing the frontier of mathematics. Things that would have taken top professionals in the industry years of work. Meanwhile, human review and comprehension are starting to fall behind. For example, people are still involved in the "archeology" of the OpenAI-HF incident from many months ago. Mathematicians may be poring over the 722 manuscripts on frontier mathematics for a while.
The funnel is driven by a combination of factors:
1. The impact scales with ambition, problem size, and horizon. A question with a paragraph answer barely stresses the system. You need a reservoir of big, difficult problems that you really care about. This aspect drives the consumer / professional dimension of the funnel.
2. The jaggedness of the system (which I have written about a lot separately). Capability peaks in domains that are digital, verifiable and economically valuable. This is because LLM capability emerges from reinforcement learning on verifiable rewards on a curated environment mixture driven by revenue potential. This aspect primarily drives the area (e.g. math&code) dimension of the funnel.
3. Access. Free-tier, paid-tier, internal.
So this is the weirdness of the moment. The general public has mostly not interacted with these systems. When they have, it looks like a derpy chatbot. The majority of professionals still see only a modest uplift. And a small sliver of professionals are experiencing the vertigo of the curve going vertical. And it is all happening at the same time.
Then both the QB and the WR will leave in the offseason. Oregon State doesn't have the bankroll to compete with the big boys. Probably the OC too.
The increasingly smart play if you're a kid who isn't a top recruit is to go to a smaller program, ball out, and then get paid.
✍️ How the heck did Oregon State become the most fun team in the country?
A top-10 offense, a QB from FCS, a freshman WR nobody offered and a head coach leading fans in swag surfing. The Beavs are must-see TV.
“Get your tickets."
nytimes.com/athletic/7673417…
$NKE might finally be taking a leap to go after Adidas reign with the super shoe. Long overdue and a continual pursuit of pushing the human limits is what so many will gravitate too
Former marathon world record holder 🇰🇪 Brigid Kosgei and reigning Chicago Marathon champion 🇺🇬 Jacob Kiplimo have voluntarily entered an enhanced anti-doping program run by the Athletics Integrity Unit that follows the model Sabastian Sawe used before Berlin last year and London this spring.
The initiative was athlete-led; Nike and their agency Rosa Associati are funding it.
What does the enhanced testing program require?
Each athlete undergoes at least 25 out-of-competition tests per year, with 100–120 analyses performed on those samples. For comparison, athletes in the marathon testing pool average about six out-of-competition tests per year, with 12–16 analyses.
All 25 required tests are unannounced, WADA-compliant and independently administered by the AIU. Beyond those minimums, each athlete’s program is tailored using data and intelligence to, as the AIU puts it, deliver “the right test at the right time.”
Both athletes have been in the program since immediately after their spring marathons. Sawe’s 25 tests before Berlin were compressed into two to three months — for 2026, the AIU recommended spreading the same volume across a full year as a more sustainable approach. Kosgei and Kiplimo are on that annual version.
🗣️ Kosgei: “They’ve been testing me three times per week, sometimes two times per week, in Kenya. It’s to prove to the juniors and young generation that I am clean.“
🗣️ Kiplimo: “For me, I decided on extra tests because I want clean sport and people can trust and know that we are running clean.”
Kosgei won the Chicago Marathon in 2019 in 2:14:04, a world record that stood until Tigst Assefa ran 2:11:53 in 2023. Kosgei’s fellow Kenyan Ruth Chepngetich lowered it further, also in Chicago, in 2024. Chepngetich was later banned after a positive test and is serving a doping ban.
Kiplimo won in Chicago last year in 2:02:23 and is considered a favorite to repeat on Sunday after running 2:00:28 for third place in April’s London Marathon.
Read more here: citiusmag.com/articles/brigi…
Pepsi mentioned doing well within energy drinks on their transcript.
“So that part is a good one for us. Energy as well. I think the Alani plus Celsius makes sense by the time we get the two brands into the business and well executed, that will be an important source of growth for us.”
Celsius and Alani both sit on Pepsi’s distribution network and with the growth the energy segment is seeing, the synergies seem to be falling in place. That’s a huge unlock.
Life has never been a question of time, only priorities. It only becomes more obvious as a life slips into a frictionless existence. We have more time than ever, but we are less productive than ever.
The product innovation cycle. I don’t need new super shoes, but I want that super shoes that can change gears so I can run a 20 minute 5k in my neighborhood.
The super running shoe arms race is out of control.
Two runners that broke 2-hour marathon mark wore the Adidas Adizero Pro Evo 3. Now, Adidas has made a running shoe with gear shifts…that change the foam from stiff to soft.
Controlled by a runner’s watch for adjustments based on terrain or fatigue. Stiff bounces more for sprints while soft for cruising speeds.
***
OP link: instagram.com/reel/Ddzvb5YsD…
All the talk about Nikes turnaround, but JD sports CFO talks about the things that have been working not what isn’t working in this Reuters report. Running hasn’t been struggling.
Are they actually turning around in where they are struggling? That’s the real question.
The 800m world record has stood since 1983. The opportunity is shouting for $NKE to document and back Keely Hodgkinson in the pursuit of it. She already holds the indoor record and the redemption comeback is only thickened by her recent battles back from injury. She is a beloved runner who has been knocking on the door. Not an overnight thing, but could be meaningful for her, Nike, and the track community.
Josh Kerr just broke a world record that wouldn’t budge for 27 years. Brooks dubbed it “Project 222”, which they all documented in his build up at his camp in altitude.
It’s going to be a nice tailwind for Brooks just like the Sub 2 chase was for Adidas. Their shoes were reselling on StockX for 4x retail. $NKE has to have something up their sleeve because this is a repeatable marketing tactic of chasing the impossible that clearly resonates.
I know Nike has been working on this for over a year, but got to think she’s a great athlete to try and redefine the frontier with.
"I've trained in this speed suit in 37C heat in South Africa."
After triumphing over 800m at Athlos with 1:56.40, Keely Hodgkinson talked through debuting her Nike speed suit 🇬🇧
The Olympic 800m champion states that it was a year in the making with Nike's innovation team and that technology will continue to play a big part in track and field 🏃♀️
🎙️ @jasminecollett_
Seems like Nike may be swerving the pursuit of being the industry leader in super shoes and instead chasing performance wear with this speed suit. Mentions of this being the norm by LA 2028. Could be a tailwind for $NKE, but a good sign to go after product innovation.
"I've trained in this speed suit in 37C heat in South Africa."
After triumphing over 800m at Athlos with 1:56.40, Keely Hodgkinson talked through debuting her Nike speed suit 🇬🇧
The Olympic 800m champion states that it was a year in the making with Nike's innovation team and that technology will continue to play a big part in track and field 🏃♀️
🎙️ @jasminecollett_
Feels like this is a bigger deal for ON than it is for Nike. Do athletes hold the value they once did for legacy brands?
ON is starting a soccer brand and this is a massive get to get that started. Remains to be seen if ONs soccer product can hang.
Real Madrid striker Kylian Mbappe has quit his long-term relationship with Nike to become the face of Swiss company On’s first expansion into football boots.
On has also hired former France and Arsenal star Thierry Henry as the firm’s Director of Football.
Henry has been secretly working in the role since 2025 and played a role in convincing Mbappe, 27, to join upon the expiration of his contract with Nike this summer.
Full story from @AdamCrafton_ ⬇️
bit.ly/4hbTpzf
This is basically the bear thesis of Nike in a nutshell. Some much of their brand has just been commoditized. No one wants to pay top dollar when they can find the same shirt elsewhere for cheaper.
Hey @Nike and @DICKS…
If you’re wondering why y’all’s quarterly earnings stunk and your stock is getting pummeled…
This might be one of the reasons…
I’m on a business trip and forgot to bring a simple workout T-shirt. I found a Dicks Sporting goods store close to me, walked in and headed for the Nike athletic wear section. I picked it up and looked on the price tag….
$60.
Sixty bucks!? For a simple. One color, polyester t-shirt.
Y’all….It’s a T-SHIRT.
A cheap, little polyester t-shirt that cost you around $5 for some 12 year old kid in Vietnam to make.
For context. I make a pretty good living. Money isn’t a huge concern for my wife and I.
I saw that price and asked the sales lady if it was a mistake. She said it wasn’t.
I walked out the door.
It’s a Nike T-shirt.
Not a Ralph Lauren Polo or some higher end brand.
Here’s the crazier part. I drove down the street to @Dillards and guess what the non discounted Ralph Lauren Polo T-shirt’s were? $55.
Maybe it’s just me.
But you’re NIKE.
There’s no way…I mean NO WAY, I’m buying a polyester t-shirt for $60.
Monster swindled the B12 with partnership. Deal lasts the football and basketball season with the logo on the jerseys, fields, and courts for $20M.
UK just signed a $5M for a logo patch on only football. $MNST really cooked, wow.
BREAKING: UK Invests to become official jersey patch partner of Kentucky Football
The logo will appear on the Wildcats' uniforms starting Saturday vs. Youngstown State
DETAILS: on3.com/teams/kentucky-wildc…
I’m pretty bummed he left the Pats. The maturation he has experienced has been insane. To go from his issues at LSU to this, has been so fun to watch.
Kayshon Boutte on #Patriots HC Mike Vrabel saying he would have been inactive on game days:
“They did pay two guys to come in and do that job. Sadly, it is the way it is. Being that it’s a contract year for me, I seeked a bigger role. I feel like what Vrabes said in his media interview, it wasn’t nothing bad. I wouldn’t say I’ll use that as fuel… It was an honest opinion. He sat there, talked, speaked his truth, and [we’ll] pretty much move forward from it.”
(🎥 @HoustonTexans)
$LULU might be dead. Horrible guide and disappointing earnings with a non existent moat. No way of differentiating themselves within the market while have been operating with a CEO. Just seems like a terrible oversight of their behalf when their company was at an inflection point
Your Oral B io is just fine. But there's a toothbrush that has a built-in camera that washes your mouth automatically. You didn't think you need it, but you do. You buy it because it leaves you saying, "WOW!"
It is yet another example of the product innovation cycle that companies like Dyson and SharkNinja win by tapping into. It's one way to speed up the product replacement cycle.
JUST IN: Dyson launches a $499 AI toothbrush with a built-in camera that identifies gaps between teeth & automatically squirts them with mouthrinse.
DICK'S Sporting Goods kinda reiterated that sports continues to be a very viable category that continues to grow. It's going to be pretty bleak for Nike and Lulu if they can't turn this ship around within this environment.
NFL takes that get increasing hotter and I kinda believe in:
1. Cowboys make the playoffs
2. Bengals win the North
3. Cowboys win the East
4. Mahomes wins comeback player of the year
5. Packers win the North
6. Dan Campbell is considered a Ben Johnson merchant
7. Broncos finish 3rd in the west but still make the playoffs
8. Justin Herbert throws for 4,000 yards
9. Devonta Smith goes for 1,500 receiving yards
10. Christian Watson finally stays healthy and goes for 1,250 on the back of MLF and Love
11. The Commanders are considered to be the worst team in the NFC
12. Cowboys win the NFC behind the best offense in the league
13. KW3 leads the league in rushing
14. Colston Loveland leads the league in receiving and Bears barely miss the points record thanks to a bad defense that keeps them to always have the foot on the pedal
$DKS earnings were another clear signal that innovation and quality behind the product matters. Footlocker got crushed but the core business grew & gained market share.
The macro behind the consumer is decent, but you have to win the consumer through a product that won’t get commoditized. $NKE, $LULU, $ONON all need to keep taking notes.
