If the unrest in France is a reflection that aging populations and tightening fiscal constraints make it increasingly difficult for Western governments to meet their promises to and expectations of their citizens, then France is just the beginning.

I'm increasingly partial to the argument that increases in the fed funds rate will do little to lower inflation, and may be counterproductive. - AI investment is unlikely to slow because interest rates are slightly higher - Energy is highly inelastic and rate changes can't alleviate the current supply shock - Higher rates hurt supply-side solutions in housing, energy, autos, and other capital intensive industries - Higher borrowing costs raise business operating expenses, some of which is passed along to consumers - A large percentage of debt is fixed-rate, dampening the feedback loop but hurting new homeowners, small businesses, and investment - An economy increasingly dominated by services is less sensitive to rate changes - This century has repeatedly demonstrated how blunt interest rate policy can be, both in stimulating inflation when it's low and suppressing it when it's high