Dozens of restaurants and markets across Los Angeles County were forced to temporarily close their doors this month after inspectors discovered health code violations, including vermin infestation and sewage leaks. ktla.com/news/local-news/los…

No point in looking at broker-pitched "off-market" deals, "first looks" or any of that stuff today. You want to see the third "Price Improvement!", and then offer 20% less. Just remember the old Chris Rock joke: "If a homeless person has a funny sign, he hasn't been homeless for that long. A real homeless person is too hungry to be funny." A real seller is too motivated for marketing games.

LeBron decided to practice his golf swing during the national anthem last night. I can’t wait until he retires, he’s been toxic for the entire NBA.

Dinner with an exec/friend at a large national property management company tonight. This person oversees ~150k apartments; access to an insane amount of data. Current multifamily market in most of the country is worse than S&L, .com bust, or the GFC. Worst they’ve seen. Class A mostly fine, decent rent growth. However: - credit scores at class A have gone down meaningfully over the past 3 years. - more people are paying rent via credit card. - average bank account balance noticeably lower than even 2 years ago - class A tenants stretched thin, living beyond their means. 20k comes in, 20k goes out every month. - starting to see these renters move down a tier Class B: - simply too many apartments, we built too much new stuff. Ripple effect is enormous. - fewer renters tomorrow than today. Same store foot traffic noticeably down year over year. Some markets down 40-50% - considering dropping rents below $700 a month on some 1beds in major southern markets. Class C: - looking at degrading NOI. Rents aren’t growing for a long time, but expenses keep creeping up - more renters are one missed paycheck away from disaster than they can remember seeing in decades - tenants aren’t paying rent because they simply don’t have it - wage growth has not kept up Lenders: - some major investment funds, household names, haven’t paid their mortgages in 2-3 years. Banks won’t foreclose because “X is a big client.” Mexican standoff. - a roof leak gets ignored, becomes water damage, then mold, then a down building. Buildings are rapidly deteriorating as some owners choose cash preservation over funding losses. - number of pre-foreclosure and REO deals is the highest as a % of total units they can recall. - data providers know it’s bad, but they’re paid to sell optimism to owners/lenders. So every forecast is “it will probably get a little better next year maybe” and that gets regurgitated at investment committees all over. I asked “how do you think this ends?” “Not sure. My gut says slowly then suddenly, and things will get really bad. Been doing this 40 years, you can feel it in the air. But, there’s a chance it’s just a decade of tolerable pain. I’m praying for that.”

My love for the City of Los Angeles will always transcend politics.

🚨HOLY SHT: I can't believe she really asked this out loud, in a recorded public meeting: LA City Councilwoman Imellda Padilla asks the LAPD to warn illegals before ICE raids. He tells her that would be obstruction and she should go speak with the city attorney🤣

LA's 'mansion tax' backfires spectacularly as thousands of homes and jobs vanish trib.al/hOiRkAr

Elon Reeve Musk is single-handedly responsible for making EVs viable, he’s going to space, providing internet to impossible areas (like my airstream on my burned lot). As an unrepentant capitalist, he’s done more tangible good for us than every socialist politician combined.

**Huge momentum for LA and Burbank 🎬** Three developments are lining up to bring production back home: *1. Paramount Skydance's Warner Bros. deal comes with California commitments* Paramount settled with California challenging the acquisition. The agreement includes $1.5B in CA film and TV production, retention of its CA studio facilities, and ~30 films per year. The deal creates one of the largest entertainment companies in the world, with a commitment to keep investing here. *2. California's tax credit is already paying off* The state more than doubled its Film & TV Tax Credit, from ~$330M to $750M annually through 2030. Year one results: 170 productions, ~$6.6B in projected in-state spending, ~35,000 cast and crew jobs, and 6,600+ filming days. Last week, Newsom also signed California's first standalone post-production credit covering editing, sound, music, VFX and finishing. *3. A federal credit could stack on top* A proposed 15–20% federal credit on qualifying production labor has bipartisan support (Trump and Schiff agree on something!). This could drive ~$125B in added U.S. production spending and 143,000+ jobs by 2035. Stacked with California's 35% credit, total incentives could reach up to 55%, among the most competitive anywhere in the world. Hollywood and Burbank stand to be the biggest beneficiaries. The case for filming in California hasn't looked this strong in years.