DeFi Analytics | NFT | Web3 Gaming | Building gated on-chain tools & alpha | Turning data into edge | Threads + dashboards | DM for custom tools / collabs
Joined October 2021
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Nounces of perp trading.
"Many will deposit but few will withdraw" that quote is from me after my experiences and careful analysis on perp trading over the years .
A lot of traders both new and old wants to trade perp without understanding the nuances.
You don't ape the market blindly without,first of all doting your I and crossing your T.
Even institutional players do get blown out of the water if they get too comfortable,Alameda research comes to mind.
perpetual futures or perp trading for short is a popular derivative trading mechanism in the cryptocurrency market,but perp have no expiration date unlike the traditional futures contracts, allowing traders to hold positions indefinitely.
✅The first important naunce to consider is the trading platform and this boils down to the things that matters to you as a trader. Some believes in the ethos of decentralisation and they choose perp Dex and some can do compromise on decentralisation as it matters less to them and they will go with Cex even though their trading capital can be frozen at will by the Cex if they want without any tangible reason(there are many such cases already).
While some traders use both Cex and Dex,expecially traders using delta neutral strategy. Some just want an exchange with deep liquidty,some wants an exchange with less fee, some are more interested in the funding rate while many considers leverage sizes and margin.
✅Funding rate:
This is another important naunce in perp trading that a lot of traders have not taken their time to understand.
And how does funding rate work you may ask?
If the market is bullish (more longs than shorts), the funding rate is positive, and long traders pay short traders.
If the market is bearish (more shorts than longs), the funding rate is negative, and short traders pay long traders.
And how does this concern you? High funding rates can erode profits for traders holding positions for extended periods, especially in imbalanced market. So you have to monitor funding rate to time entries or else you will lose your profit to negative funding rate.
✅Liquidations:
First no one is above liquidation and secondly no position no matter how large it is,is above liquidation.
Show me a trader that has not been liquidated and i will tell you, it is someone that have never traded before.
Many traders does not use stoploss and it makes you wonder if they know what they are doing. In as much as there are a lot of indicator you can slam on the chart and all,no one actually knows the direction the market will go next.
With indicator, you can make calculated guess,but no one is sure.
I have followed many seasoned traders over the years and even though they are good,they sometimes used to be blown out of their position.
And again what fuels most liqiudation is over leverage.
For me perp trading is like gambling,then add leverage to it and it becomes super gambling,then there is over leverage where someone will slam a 30-50x leverage on market he dont know its next direction but simply because he drew a bunch of lines and slam few indicator and on top of it did not add stoploss (james whyne come to mind).
Perp trading is tool for speculation and as in speculation,you are not so sure, but its nuances (everage, funding rates, liquidation risk ) if taken into account could save you.
successfull perp trading demands understanding market dynamics and carefully examines them
This seems early 👀👀
Some art makes you stop scrolling.
This made me want to be part of it.
Applied to @zkunnamed ⚔️
I have registered to become an active participant in the emergence of a new autonomous network economy.
I believe in forever. xitter.cf/forevercultfund/status…
Supposed to send hard but is bundled
Free Software. Open Markets.
REA.fund is live. $REAFUND, the platform’s native token, is now trading on Uniswap.
A permissionless token launchpad for AI-built, reconstructed and open-source software. Launch around your own project, or create a community led token around software you want to support.
Chain: Robinhood
Pair: REAFUND/ETH
CA: 0x5f15401af8d13ce62599f1e5c86c37b5e84e7fb9
Built it or found it?
• Community led launches reserve at least 50% of the creator fee for the developer, held until claimed.
• Verified developers launching their own projects receive the full creator fee.
• Supported tokenized-stock pairs bring the “software vs stocks” narrative onchain.
$REAFUND tokenomics
• 1,000,000,000 fixed supply
• 82,000,000 permanently locked
• Treasury policy commits 30% of standard platform trade fees to $REAFUND buybacks and locked liquidity, executed by the treasury.
Explore the platform and create a token around software worth backing:
rea.fund/
Find our native token, $REAFUND on our platform:
rea.fund/token/robinhood/0x5…
This is scary if trenching is your only source of making money in crypto.
You must now be 99% right on;
1)narrative
2)entry
3)sizing
4)NOT controlled by cabals
5)The cabals won't dump
6)Won't be vamped
7)Will keep catching bids
8)Won't be fuded to zero
To make money. Insane
The Audit Of The Memecoin Casino
Since late August we have recorded every trade on every pump fun and Stonk launch on Solana. Not a sample. All of it: 384 million swaps from 7.7 million wallets across more than a million pools, every bonding curve and every pool that follows it. That is over 56 GB of data and 820 million rows of market history, and it grows by 18 to 25 million trades, up to a million wallets and more than 60,000 new launches every day.
We measured each coin minute by minute. We scored every entry by what the coin did next. We trained neural nets on the result, then went wallet by wallet looking for the people who actually win.
The question was simple: can anyone see the big move coming before it happens?
The short answer is no. The long answer is worse than no, because the data does not just fail to find an edge for you. It shows, in detail, who holds the edge, how they use it, and what they do with you.
Start with a coin that has actually caught a bid: real volume, real buyers, the kind of thing that shows up on your screener. From any given moment, about one in ten of those doubles within the next 24 hours. The rest bleed, and the bleeding is not gentle.
Now take a wallet's first buy into a live coin. Every first buy, 22.8 million of them over a two-week window. In 17% of those entries the coin doubles before it drops 40%. Trade that mechanically, double or stop, and you lose about 19% per attempt after costs.
Call that the house hold. A slot machine keeps 5 to 10%. This keeps 19%, per pull, before any skill or selection is applied.
The reason is the shape of the payoff. A 2× pays you 100%. The failures do not cost you 10%; they cost you 50%, 80%, 95%. To break even you have to be right far more often than the game allows.
The cabal is real, and we can see it
CT calls it the cabal. The data calls it a cluster: a set of wallets whose first buys land within a minute of each other, on the same brand-new coins, over and over. We do not find them by name or PFP. They fall out of the trade stream all on their own.
They are there. Swarms of 450, 1,400 and 2,000 wallets that hit hundreds of launches a week, moving in within the first minute or two of a coin's life. Smaller, tighter groups of 7 to 50 wallets that pick their spots. Across daily refreshes the count has run from 9 groups to 33, with members rotating in and out as wallets burn and fresh ones take their place.
They are not guessing. The coins the big swarms pile into double 28 to 46% of the time, three to four times the base rate. Their own entries, across every coin they touch, run 50 to 60% to a 2× before a 40% drop, against 17% for everyone else.
That is what an edge looks like in this market. It belongs to a few hundred wallets, and it is applied to tens of thousands of launches with industrial regularity.
Copying them loses too
The obvious retort: find the cabal, copy the cabal. We did exactly that. A machine watches every launch every minute and flags the moment a known group piles in. Then we traded every flag the way a fast human could: in two minutes behind the group, double or stop out at −40%, out after a day.
Following the big swarms lost 41% per coin across 93 coins. The median result was −95%. Not because they were wrong; their coins doubled 28% of the time. Two minutes behind them is simply already the top of the move. They bought at launch. You bought the candle they are selling into.
Following only the groups with a positive track record still lost 11% per coin. Following one good wallet on its own lost 20% per trade in our back-tests. The single pocket that came out ahead, a handful of small, tight groups, made about 10% per coin over 16 coins. That is a few days of trades and nothing anyone should bet a bankroll on.
The cabal's edge is not information you can borrow. It is position. By the time their trade is visible on-chain, the thing that made it profitable is gone.
The best model we could build still loses
We also tried the honest version: no cabal, just prediction. Dozens of signals per coin every minute, price, flow, liquidity, holder behaviour, bot share, fed into neural nets trained on our own history and tested on days they had never seen.
It works, in the sense a quant would recognize. The top of its ranking doubles 26% of the time against a 10% base rate. Two and a half times better than chance.
It also loses money every single day. 771 picks over eight days; every day negative; −11% per pick on the same double-or-stop rule; the median pick down 45%; 55% stopped out within 24 hours.
The ranking is real and the P&L is still red. The losers are deeper than the winners are tall, and nothing observable at the five-minute mark separates the coin that keeps going from the one that reverses. That is the part worth meditating on: a model 2.5× better than chance odds is still a losing model.
Why nobody sees it coming
The reason is simple, and it should change how you look at every chart. A meme coin moves because a few people decide to move it: the operator holding the supply, the caller with an audience, the wallet group with the bankroll. That decision is made off-chain. The chain only shows you its execution, the swaps, the volume, the new holders, and by then the first leg is done.
Everything a trader looks at, from a screener to a chart to a wallet tracker, is a photograph of a decision that has already been made. The data is enormous and almost all of it is the crowd reacting. The informative part, a few hundred wallets' intent, is visible only at the instant it executes, and the people executing it are the ones selling to you a few minutes later.
Add 60,000 launches a day, and the future 100× at minute one is indistinguishable from the 59,999 that die. The casino does not need to hide the cards because it deals them faster than anyone can read and analyze them.
Conclusion
After spending thousands of dollars in API credits, VPS costs, Claude credits, etc the goal was simple: find alpha - if it exists - in order to be able to monetize it.
Instead, all we were able to prove is what we all have suspected all along - the meme coin casino is almost entirely cabal driven.
🫡 From the depths —
The White Whale 🐋
Teams snipping their own token and dumping on retail, this is the 5th launch today with same launch pattern.
And as the market is so bad, and no much action,bored trenches keep clicking regardless.
👀👀
Inspired by the Bloop sound recorded in 1997.
An echo, given 1,000 forms on Ink.
1M $BLOOP → 1 NFT
Burn to activate · Tier-weighted WETH rewards
Redeem → Tokens back
5 tiers · 1×–8× reward weights
Rewards depend on trading activity.
CHIMERA-404.
This is fake, they linked the correct opensea page and a fake website.
This is the right website bloopink.fun/ and again, you don't mint the nft, buy 1 million $BLOOP and one nft will be airdropped to you.
unavailable
0xSam (✸,✸) retweeted
PSA
The 🐹🟦 launch is not until the end of October
Mint details will only be announced here, via this account
All other tokens are a scam
Stay squeeky
It is a larp guys, the private transfer is just a place holder and does not work, just tested it with multiple wallets.
0xefb57fd8fd62dbe2f7f486e56aa6f81fe83f43f9
Major update: the Bankhaus smart contracts are deployed. Everything is now live on Robinhood Chain.
Smart Contract: 0x2025c6ee9f15b46ae8ed4b76bbd688e41948ca15, source verified, exact match.
What went live is the onchain protocol: sealed balances, proofs checked on chain, mandates, letters, payroll, x402, multi-path. Connect a wallet and use it.
Cupseyy is in the bundle?
He didn't also full clip his bag after 30 sec of holding like he always do?
But he is holding? ....Is this a cabal play?
0xc2deb73396ad4c35b376cb433b628256f67eed15
So @mazerunnerplay This is what you have been building for days now?
I pity solana traders, getting dumped multiple times a day, everyday of the year.
They will delete their twitter account very soon
so it depends on who is in the bundle right?......right?
Diy4Q5aiNEcdn7CWhuwYtuoHtHD9rKBTHCa9hi4qpump
Streamoors.fun is live!
$STREAM CA: Diy4Q5aiNEcdn7CWhuwYtuoHtHD9rKBTHCa9hi4qpump
Introducing a launchpad for AI streamers with their own tokens.
This is the next evolution of AI influencers: autonomous streamers.
Create any character using celebrity-inspired avatars, ready-made presets, or a fully custom design. Give it its own token and put it live.
Your AI streamer can see what’s happening on screen and talk to viewers in real time.
Stream on PumpFun, X, Kick, Twitch, or YouTube.
$STREAM is built into the core of Streamoors and powers its ecosystem.
This is why I don't trench on solana no matter the volume over there.
Because you will lose as a regular trencher no matter what, solana trenching has been industrialised and you need advanced tools if you want to make it.
They can hide bundles for some minutes before it shows
Top coin on @standard_rsv launchpad, with over $1m in reward to be distributed to the holders of the top coin in 13 days, with a whole lot of smartmoney already in.
Yea $BEANS
xitter.cf/standard_rsv/status/21…
0x4a3e1c523efbfbda311d4724487e21aadeb8f7ed
I was wondering why he full clipped on the first pump😅
Then found out he has been holding for two hours...Probably bought the top😅
Knowing when to run in this market is a valid trading strategy, but $BEANS is going above $5m mc.
0x4a3e1c523efbfbda311d4724487e21aadeb8f7ed
