Sam Harrison

Thoughts on the Figure (FIGR) IPO: We see Figure as a rare IPO where the base case is a relatively clear double to $40 within 12 months, with further upside to $60–75 in 18–24 months as adoption and margins expand, all without relying on aggressive multiple expansion. As longtime investors in digital asset infrastructure, here's why we're excited about this opportunity ⬇️ Structural cost advantage Figure is the first scaled, institutional-grade onchain lending platform and the clear leader in tokenized credit. We see its blockchain-native securitization model providing a structural edge: Traditional AAA securitizations require 100% loan audits at about $500 per loan, while Figure’s immutable loan-level data allows rating agencies to accept 25–30% audit sampling at about $100 per loan. This delivers ~100 bps of lifecycle cost savings per loan, a defensible advantage that improves margins as the platform scales. Growth trajectory (VanEck estimates) Figure has built meaningful scale with $12B in loans outstanding and about $750M in new originations each month (~$9B annually). That equates to ~2.9% of the $406B U.S. HELOC market on a stock basis, and closer to ~10% of incremental flow. At this pace, balances should reach ~4.5% market share by 2026, even as the broader HELOC market grows at ~9% annually. On this foundation, we estimate Figure can sustain ~30% revenue growth with ~40% EBITDA margins, putting the company on track for ~$1.3B revenue and ~$520M EBITDA by 2027. In a faster-growth case with ~50% revenue growth and ~45% margins, EBITDA could approach ~$990M over the same horizon. Valuation scenarios IPO pricing of ~$20/share (~$4.1B market cap) looks conservative relative to both current performance and forward earnings power: Base Case: With ~$520M EBITDA by 2027 and a 15–16x multiple, equity value reaches $8–8.3B, or ~$40/share within 12 months. This doubling is achievable with continued share gains in HELOC origination and recognition of its structural cost advantage. Blue Sky: With ~$990M EBITDA, a 15x multiple supports ~$15B valuation, or ~$75/share in 18–24 months. Even at a 12x multiple, equity value is ~$12B, or ~$60/share. Re-rating Potential: Circle (CRCL) trades at ~50x EBITDA today, even with the stock down 50%. Even at a more sustainable 20x multiple, Figure earning ~$1B EBITDA would support $20B+ equity value, or ~$100/share. Strategic optionality Beyond HELOCs, Figure’s infrastructure stack (DART, Democratize Prime) and its SEC-registered yield-bearing stablecoin position it as a broader origination, settlement, and liquidity platform. Stablecoin circulation is already ~$300B. If it grows to the trillions as we expect, even modest penetration could redirect tens of billions of flow through Figure’s infrastructure, generating spread capture and settlement revenues that are not in any base case. Narrative CEO @mcagney has engineered a genuine redemption arc by proving that blockchain-native credit markets can operate at scale. Institutions recognize his execution record, but we believe retail and crypto communities are only beginning to discover Figure’s potential. Post-IPO, its story of driving financial innovation onchain could capture the attention of investors drawn to transformative technology and strong growth. As investors passionate about both crypto and fundamentals, we’re excited to share why Figure’s leadership in on-chain finance could resonate with crypto enthusiasts and institutional investors alike. Why VanEck Belongs in the Book VanEck has invested in digital-asset infrastructure since 2017 across private ventures, public equities, and token markets. Our equity strategies focused on the onchain economy, have delivered strong performance and recent inflows, giving us confidence in our ability to be a long-term buyer of Figure in the open market. If you couldn't tell already, we’re fired up to back this game-changing company post-IPO!