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$WULF CEO Paul Prager on the stock price:
“My focus is entirely on creating long-term value for shareholders and execution.”
• He doesn’t react to day-to-day moves
• He’s the largest shareholder
• The balance sheet is a “fortress”
• CFO Patrick Fleury paid tax on vested RSUs instead of selling
“As long as I can execute and explain it to shareholders, we will win.”
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Demand remains extremely strong for 2028 and 2029 power. the question is - is the site energized? The $WULF response is YES. Economics are robust. It is sensible that they are - its
supply and demand. The customers understand these projects require financing and (1) $WULF will not take finance risk so we require (2) investment grade credit support and (3) $WULF shareholders will NOT be diluted so it’s for the customers account. The debt markets remain open and active for investment-grade product. Again - at Lake Mariner we are delivering CB-4 this quarter and right in the middle of the forecasted range which was 8-10 million per MW. For the Justified project in Hawesville we projected a range of 10-12 million per MW. We are right there too. We protect our economics - we are in business to create shareholder value. Protecting our economics on each deal is fundamental to what we do.
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Someone told me this morning that the business model for co-location companies is broken.
That genuinely made me laugh.
If anything, the economics keep getting better.
Why?
Because there simply isn’t enough power available for AI infrastructure right now. We are massively short power, and any good analyst following this space knows it.
So why are these stocks down so much?
Simple. They’re all being traded in the same basket.
That won’t last forever.
Eventually, the real operators will separate themselves from the pack. That’s how every new industry evolves.
Wall Street isn’t questioning whether these companies can sign contracts. Everyone is going to sign contracts. There’s too much demand chasing too little available power.
The real question is:
Who can actually build the data center on time, on budget, energize it, and start collecting rent?
That’s what the Street wants to see.
Who are the players and who are the fakers?
Contracts are one thing. Execution is another.
Once the revenue starts hitting the income statement, cash starts flowing, and investors can see the economics in the actual numbers, the conversation changes completely.
For some companies that signed contracts 18 to 24 months ago, I expect that inflection to start becoming visible by the end of Q1 next year.
That’s when we should begin seeing separation.
Until then, enjoy the process.
Don’t overcomplicate it.
Power. Contracts. Construction. Energization. Revenue. Separation.
This isn’t rocket science.
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A lot of questions this week on funding, so here's how a GPU typically gets funded at $IREN.
First, the customer signs a multi-year take-or-pay contract and agrees to a prepayment. On our recent 3-year contracts, prepayments have been 45% to 55% of the associated GPU capex.
Second, financing is committed, secured by the contracted GPUs. On the Microsoft contract we secured an A-rated facility at around 6%, which together with prepayments covers 96% of GPU capex. More recently, for a non-investment grade counterparty at Mackenzie, we secured financing at 9% fixed, which together with prepayments covers more than the full cost of the GPUs.
That's the GPU side. The data centers are a separate, long-term asset base, and we own the ones our GPUs run in. Construction has been funded from cash to date, with no debt against these multi-billion dollar assets. As they come online with contracted customers, they can support financing in their own right.
The processes behind the next facilities are continuing, and new paper will cost what the market charges. With GPU paybacks of around two years on our recent 3-year contracts, a wider spread barely moves the economics.
There's more customer demand than we can build for. As we noted at our recent earnings, 2026 is largely sold out, recent 3-year contracts are at more than double the prior year's pricing, and demand for anything we can bring online in 2027 covers it several times over, with prepayments a focus in every negotiation. Conversations on 2028 capacity are already underway.
Meanwhile announced capacity keeps slipping across the industry, which is the point: signing deals isn't the bottleneck in this market, bringing GPUs online is, and that's our focus.
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At $WULF, we start with power. We always have.
Microsoft's reported UK data center setback is a reminder: demand for compute is one thing. Delivering the power to support it is another. Our team has been developing energy infrastructure for decades. That's our advantage.
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Most of the discussions about the future of neoclouds overlooks a key player: $NVDA.
AI clouds and other enterprises are now almost as big a revenue channel for $NVDA as hyperscalers.
This gives $NVDA a huge leverage against hyperscalers.
Hyperscalers can’t afford to slow down $NVDA purchases to develop and ramp up their own chips as customers would not settle for inferior performance in the high-stakes AI race and go to neoclouds that offer the newest $NVDA chips.
This is what keeps the whole industry on the $NVDA standard.
So, survival of neoclouds are critical for $NVDA and it’ll do everything it can to keep them alive and thriving.
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It's very very different, this time.
AI Hyperscalers Net Debt/EBITDA at 0.1x vs. Internet Backbone Providers at 3.9x in 2000, a 39x difference.
The dot-com companies were funding fiber rollout with debt and capital market issuance.
Today's hyperscalers are funding AI capex internally from operating cash flow.
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Neoclouds such as CoreWeave and Nebius are backstopped by companies with trillion dollar market caps and access to the cheapest financing in the world
NVIDIA has a 10% equity stake in CoreWeave and has committed to buy any unused capacity through 2032, up to $6.3B
NScale, Lambda, Nebius and Iren have equity ownership and preferential vendor agreements with NVIDIA
Microsoft has signed a contract and prepaid 20% of the value at Iren. NVIDIA has backed leases at both NScale and Lambda.
Google has backed both Hut8 and TeraWulf through guarantees on the lease. Amazon has guaranteed leases for Cipher.
Yet, people still believe that these companies are at risk of default simply from looking at credit default spread charts
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Strategy has repurchased $193M of $STRC and acquired 267 $BTC. As of 10/18/26, we hold 848,517 BTC and $5.3B of USD Assets. We have also increased the size of our Digital Credit Securities Repurchase Program from $2.0B to $3.0B. $MSTR
strategy.com/press/strategy-…
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I used to think cholesterol was simple. High is bad. Low is good. Take a pill. Problem solved.
Then I read the Korean study. 14.9 million people. Nine years of follow up. No one on statins.
And the result was a U-shape.
Very low LDL. More cardiovascular death. Very high LDL. More cardiovascular death. The safest zone sat right in the middle.
How can both extremes kill you if the number itself is the problem?
Because the number was never the problem.
Low LDL weakens your blood vessel walls. Cholesterol builds every cell membrane in your body. It makes your hormones. Drive it to the floor and the body cannot maintain itself. The vessels get fragile. They rupture.
High LDL in someone with insulin
resistance, chronic inflammation, and a damaged arterial wall is dangerous. Not because LDL attacked the wall. Because it got trapped inside a wall that was already broken.
But here is what the system never tells you.
A lean, active person eating real food can have LDL of 300 and be one of the healthiest people in the room. High HDL. Low triglycerides. No inflammation. Clean insulin. The LDL is high because their body is running on fat and transporting energy efficiently. Not disease. Metabolism.
Same number. Completely different biology.
Two people sitting in the same doctor's office. Same LDL on the lab report. One needs intervention. One does not. But both get handed the same prescription.
Because the system was built to treat the number. Not understand the environment the number lives in.
Stop chasing numbers. Start understanding your body.
A Giant Korean Study of 15 Million People Just Blew a Hole in the “Lower LDL Is Always Better” Story
Imagine tracking almost 15 million adults for nearly nine years and counting every death from heart disease and stroke. That’s exactly what Korean researchers did with 14.9 million people who weren’t even taking cholesterol drugs. What they found doesn’t match the simple message that “the lower your LDL, the safer you are.” Instead, the risk formed a U-shape. People with very low LDL died more often from cardiovascular causes, people with very high LDL also died more often, and the sweet spot sat right in the middle.
For overall cardiovascular death the lowest risk landed between about 90 and 149 mg/dL. Below that range or well above it, deaths went up. The pattern changed depending on the exact problem. For heart attacks and blocked arteries the best zone was lower (around 70–114 mg/dL). For some types of brain bleeds the risk kept falling only when LDL stayed higher. In plain terms, driving LDL as low as possible protected against one kind of death while raising the risk of others.
When the scientists looked only at the higher range (100 to 300 mg/dL) they still saw a clear rise in heart-attack deaths as LDL climbed. Each jump of about 40 mg/dL raised the chance of dying from ischemic heart disease by roughly 26 percent. But that rise was weaker in women and in older adults than in younger men. Even people in their late 70s and early 80s still showed some extra risk from higher LDL for heart attacks and ischemic strokes, yet the overall picture never became “lower is always safer.”
The study is huge, it followed real people instead of just guessing from lab tests, and it only looked at folks who were not already on statins. That makes the U-shape harder to wave away. Doctors still treat high LDL when people already have heart disease or several risk factors, because the top end of the curve is real. But the data also show that pushing every healthy adult toward rock-bottom LDL numbers is not free. Too low carried its own price in this massive population.
The takeaway is simple and uncomfortable: LDL cholesterol is not a one-way street. In nearly 15 million Koreans the safest zone for dying of cardiovascular disease was not the lowest number on the lab report. Both extremes cost lives. That single finding from one of the largest studies ever done keeps forcing the same awkward question—how low is actually low enough, and for whom?
BTC retweeted
$WULF is NOT a neocloud. $WULF IS an energy infrastructure company. We match long term investment grade energy supply with long term HPC/AI off-take. We finance our projects competitively because our contracts require our customers to be investment grade or bring investment grade credit support. We raised capital last spring opportunistically and maintain a fortress balance sheet. Our team has built large scale energy infrastructure for 25 years. Lake Mariner is delivering CB-4 this quarter and CB -5 in the first quarter ‘27. No surprises coming. We projected a range of 8-10 million per MW. We are squarely in the middle of that range. We are all about execution. Project Justified in Kentucky is a world-class project. We already have the required equity and we have an investment grade backstop committed. We execute and have predictable cash flow. Markets are pretty wild right now but we fervently believe price action will catch up to shareholder value. Demand for our product is robust and real. Certainly we have to remain diligent and execute like there’s no tomorrow. We will. But knowing what we have in the ground, in contract, the investment grade credits behind our contracts and the team’s execution history and capabilities- we sleep at night. You can too.
BTC retweeted
What Is $IREN Good At?
A friend who supports NBIS told me：
Iren is not a data center engineering specialist at all. IT data centers and centers for miners are very far from each other and that is exactly why Iren decided to use Nvidia's DSX platform, it gives you the design and since they are not good at IT/AI data centers they pay DELL to do some of that work too. Iren are good at finding land, building the halls and bringing the power shells on, which is closer to a construction company than to data center engineering company, so in reality it is a relationship of dependence for Iren.
This was my response. Does anyone have anything to add?
By the end of 2026, IREN’s Horizon 1–4 will be the world’s largest newly built, native liquid-cooled AI data center deployment designed for NVIDIA’s high-end GPUs, featuring direct-to-chip liquid cooling. By this standard, the number of data centers of comparable scale owned by NBIS at the end of 2026 is: 0.
The Horizon campuses are still only a small part of IREN’s GW-scale campuses, leaving enormous room for expansion. By this standard, NBIS will have 0 comparable facilities before 2029, and whether it can achieve this even after that remains uncertain.
IREN will also have multiple GW-scale campuses spread across different locations, interconnected to enable cross-campus connectivity. By this standard, NBIS’s comparable capacity in 2030 or even 2035 is: 0.
Multiple sites that IREN has announced, as well as others yet to be announced, are all GW-scale. This alone is something the vast majority of future competitors will be unable to match. The GPU clusters to be deployed will operate on a completely different physical infrastructure scale. Achieving this requires collaboration with top-tier experts such as Dell and NVIDIA; developing and operating such infrastructure independently is simply not feasible. The complexity of ultra-large-scale clusters increases exponentially with scale. By this standard, NBIS’s comparable capacity is: 0.
All of IREN’s sites have been carefully selected with strategic positioning and community acceptance in mind. These are scarce assets that cannot simply be replicated once the land is occupied. They also take green energy and environmental sustainability into account. By this standard, NBIS’s comparable assets are: virtually 0.
All of IREN’s sites are grid-connected, enabling future interaction with the power grid. This will significantly improve economics and stability while opening up multiple additional revenue streams. By this standard, before 2029, NBIS’s comparable capabilities are: 0.
In the future, IREN will also enable coordination across multiple sites and develop additional satellite sites to accommodate the specific demands of the inference era. By this standard, NBIS’s comparable capabilities are: 0.
Simply accumulating land and pre-purchasing power is already no easy feat. There is so much foresight about the future embedded in these decisions that they seem almost as if they were made by people who had traveled back from the future.
IREN could very well become the world’s leading blueprint for replicable next-generation liquid-cooled AI data centers—the printing press for AI factories.
This is also why so many leading data center experts have chosen IREN, and why an increasing number of outstanding professionals from Oracle, NVIDIA, Google, KKR, and Intel continue to join the company.
BTC retweeted
$IREN
Morningstar’s cut IREN’s PT $43 → $37 (and CoreWeave’s) because total AI infrastructure spending is heading past $1.3T in 2027. Hyperscalers are also raising big debt, so neoclouds could face higher future borrowing costs and tougher access to cheap capital. Nebius looks cleaner (lower leverage).
Nice try Morning star but let’s take a cleaner look:
Debunk for IREN:
• Existing debt is mostly fixed and cheap (~$6.7B of the $7.7B is low-coupon convertibles at 0–4% effective rates). The Microsoft GPU package is largely fixed or hedged. Rate hikes don’t hit the current book.
• Real hyperscaler exposure already: Microsoft $9.7B (5yr, IG-backed) + NVIDIA $3.4B. Adding shorter ~3yr AI-lab deals (Perplexity, etc.) at higher pricing is a feature — lets them reprice higher.
• Heavy prepayments (45–55% of GPU CapEx) + vertical integration reduce pure debt dependence. Microsoft contract already unlocked investment-grade project financing.
• IREN is exploring 90% GPU financing at fixed rate for non-investment-grade / smaller AI lab customers.
Morningstar’s worry is forward-looking sector financing risk, not that IREN’s current fixed debt or contracted book is broken. Again nice try morning start but this is F level research.
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What's the difference between a #neocloud and what $WULF does?
CEO @PaulBPrager breaks it down in his recent interview with @SullyCNBC on @CNBC. Watch the full replay below.
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Strive announces upsized IPO of $SATS to $700M notional, priced at $90 per share.
We'll discuss the details in depth on the next @HurdleRatePod, which will be released when the IPO settles next Tuesday.
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Morgan Stanley: $WULF Multiple Catalysts, Severely Mispriced $65 PT
“We rarely see a stock as mispriced as WULF and other Powered Shell Providers”
“We view WULF as a highly compelling Overweight, with 392% upside to our $65 price target, and 32% upside to our bear case”
BTC retweeted
A brutal few days across the AI infrastructure sector, and $WULF has been no exception.
Financing costs, leverage, capital needs and returns on AI investment are all under scrutiny.
We are not sitting on the sidelines.
Yesterday, @MorganStanley hosted us in NYC for a full day with >30 investors, spanning long-only funds, global hedge funds, multi-strategy managers and credit investors. It was one of the most valuable days I've spent with investors.
Tough questions. Candid conversations. Here's what stood out...