SK retweeted
Terrorists killed inside Israel on 7th October are on the Hamas ministry of health death lists from Gaza.
Some 5,000+ combatants have now been identified on the lists through open source research.
Identities of bodies returned to Gaza, and what it proves about the GMH casualties list.
After the ceasefire, Israel returned ~400 bodies of Palestinians to Gaza. For identification, Gaza Ministry of Health (GMH) have published pictures of the bodies, plus names of those already identified.
A total of 396 bodies are listed by GMH - of those, 91 people (excluding one duplicate) have been identified.
All 91 identified people can be found the GMH casualties list since June.
Of those 91:
- All are men 18-60 years.
- 63 (69%) have a listed date-of-death as Oct 7th 2023. 76 (84%) have DOD within Nov 16th 2023.
- Of the remainder, 12 (13%) have a listed DOD after the start of the ceasefire. Since the bodies have been dead for a long time, this likely just means the DOD is unknown and listed as the date received. Only 3 (3%) have DOD between 16.11.2023-10.10.2025.
- At least 23 (25%) have so far been announced as martyrs by Al Qassam (Hamas) or Al Quds (PIJ) brigades.
- 54 (59%) are found on lists prior to 2026. 35 (38%) were found on lists prior to the ceasefire. Some had been removed before the ceasefire, but 26 (29%) were still present on the last list before the ceasefire, i.e. before the bodies were returned.
This shows that most of the returned bodies are of terrorists killed inside Israel while participating in the Oct 7th terror attack.
It also confirms the claim (see linked post) that terrorists killed inside Israel on Oct 7th are systematically included in the GMH casualties list.
About a third were already on the casualties list before the bodies were returned. This proves Gazans can report presumed deaths without a body or even knowing the exact location of the body, and that these are included in the list.
But there is something very interesting about this data: At least 68 (75%) of them are registered on the "Genocide in Gaza" (Gigaza) website - and every single one of them is claimed to have been killed in airstrikes inside Gaza, which is obviously not true (Israel was not inside Gaza on Oct 7th and could not have taken possession of the bodies).
This confirms my suspicion that the Gigaza website formulaically claims death by airstrike unless other information is available - which explains why nearly all (94%) of the ~50,000 deaths registered on Gigaza are claimed to be from airstrikes. Claims from Gigaza of death by airstrike should be treated with skepticism from now on.
63/68 of those listed on Gigaza have DOD Oct 7th, including 7 people who are registered with post-ceasefire DOD in the GMH list, suggesting that most/all those with post-ceasefire DODs died while participating in the Oct 7th attack.
xitter.cf/EirikSchr/status/20911…
SK retweeted
Older founders outperform younger ones.
YC and dropout culture have convinced us the ideal founder is 22, straight out of school, but the data tells a different story.
Some interesting data:
- An MIT study of 2.7 million US founders found that the average founder was 47 when starting a company that later exited through an acquisition or IPO.
- The same study cited that the founders of the fastest-growing 0.1% of U.S. startups were 45 years old on average when they started their companies.
- A 50-year-old founder was approximately twice as likely as a 30-year-old founder to produce an acquisition or IPO.
- Founders with at least three years of relevant industry experience were twice as likely to build a top-0.1%-growth company as founders with none.
So it seems that experience is one of the strongest advantages a founder can have.
Two lessons here:
1. It's never too late to start
2. It might actually be TOO early to start; getting work experience is worth considering
The rule of law
Jamaican migrant jailed for raping his wife and his sister in Britain wins right to stay here because he is now bisexual and living with a younger man trib.al/stxgXqO
He was a great stock picker, but wasn't situationally aware of what happens when you employ too much leverage
SK retweeted
Introducing Griffin, the first model to pass the video Turing test.
48% of people who talked to it live thought it was a real human. Previous systems have had a pass rate <3%. It is #1 on NVIDIA's benchmark for full-duplex AI video.
It’s the first Human Interaction Model (HIM).
Readers added context they thought people might want to know
The 48% figure and "video Turing test" claim are from Tavus's own study of 54 one-minute calls, not independently verified or using a standard protocol. Griffin-Lite leads NVIDIA's VideoFDB benchmark on their public leaderboard.
cellcog.ai/blog/tavus-gri…
research.nvidia.com/labs/amri/proj…
tech-ish.com/2026/10/02/tav…
SK retweeted
According to a release from the U.S. Department of Justice, a 51 year old former employee of the Department of Energy, Ashton Hamed Ellaboudy, was arrested and charged with attempting to provide material support to the Yemeni Houthis, who are a designated terrorist organization. Per the release, Ellaboudy, “U.S. government employee traveled overseas and used his specialized expertise in an attempt to aid the Houthis, a designated Foreign Terrorist Organization backed by Iran.” The FBI became aware of his actions when he bought the precursor materials for homemade explosive devices and drone components as well.
Interesting idea, but having a vehicle used as a rental will impair its value. Dealer would have to make more on rental than the impairment to its inventory adjusted for capital costs.
When Igor Dobrianskyi looks at a car dealership lot, he doesn't see rows of cars — he sees millions of dollars just sitting there, depreciating, while people who only need a car for a few months are stuck paying too much for too little choice, so he built
spr.ly/6013BGQycc
SK retweeted
Yahya Shihab was lauded as a pediatric nurse at Gaza's Al-Rantisi Children's Hospital where hostages were taken immediately on 10/7. But Hamas admitted he was a Platoon Commander killed in action. He is the 107th confirmed Gaza "medical worker" who was really a combatant.
SK retweeted
In short, the facts now emerging about the fatalities in Gaza are exactly as we predicted back in 2024.
A lot of people should lose their careers over their ridiculous statistical modelling predicting hundreds of thousands of deaths in outlets like the Lancet and joke NGOs like AOAV. They won’t. They’ll get a free pass. Their blood libel work is done.
Famine allegations, destruction of healthcare, targeting civilians; all debunked by Hamas’s own numbers. That’s before we get to the 5,000 combatants we’ve found on the lists so far (from obituaries released mainly by the militant groups themselves).
The world’s media should hang their heads in shame.
Gaza Ministry of Health has now released mortality numbers for 2025. For the first time since the war, they give numbers for all deaths, including natural deaths.
In 2025 there were a total of 24,650 deaths in Gaza. 18,870 (76.6%) of these were violent, of which 17,286 (70.1%) were due to "war operations" and 1,584 (6.4%) were classified as accidents. There were a total of 5,780 (23.4%) non-violent deaths, including disease, old age, and all other causes.
5,780 deaths is about the same as the annual non-violent mortality in Gaza before the war, and the age distribution is similar to 2022. There is no significant excess of non-violent deaths.
In other words, despite frequent and loud claims to the contrary, there seems to be very few indirect deaths due to the war in Gaza in 2025.
As there were 50,227 births in 2025, this gives a natural population growth of 25,577 or 1.2% in Gaza in 2025, which is higher population growth than most countries in the world and more than the world average.
There are currently ~6,000 births/month in Gaza, per GMH. Assuming a similar number of non-violent deaths in Gaza in 2026 as in 2025, that means there are currently 12x more births than deaths in Gaza, and that Gaza is now experiencing one of the highest population growths in the world.
SK retweeted
What occasionally gets lost in the public discourse on interceptor shortages is that, doctrinally, ground-based air defenses were only ever one component of a broader air defense approach, meant to absorb the initial set of barrages while air and naval power destroyed the launchers etc.
SK retweeted
‼️ “The facts of this case read like a spy novel.” ‼️
This is the story of former Fed economist John Rogers and Jin Chuan aka Hummin Lee, the Chinese spy who would spent years trying to uncover some of the Fed’s most tightly held secrets. It’s a tale of sex, money, deceit and betrayal that put some of the country’s vital economic and financial secrets at risk.
The now 65-year-old economist was arrested in Jan 2025, days before he was set to travel to China with his wife Yu Liu aka Yu Yu, a Chinese national, and their 6-year-old daughter. Investigators believed that Rogers passed information about the Fed to Hummin Lee, who, over more than a decade, helped Rogers with his career, his finances and his marriage to a woman 24 years his junior.
Rogers’ descent from senior Fed official to espionage suspect appears to have been driven by his desire for female companionship. This desire was exploited by a Chinese government agent, who became increasingly entwined in Rogers’ professional and personal life. Rogers’ indiscretion was later exploited by online blackmail scammers, ultimately leading to his downfall.
Rogers’ trial began in Jan 2026.
On Feb 3, the jury found Rogers guilty on the charge of making false statements but acquitted him on the charge of conspiracy to commit economic espionage.
On July 15, he was sentenced to 38 months in federal prison.
cnbc.com/2026/09/30/john-rog…
cnbc.com/video/2026/09/30/ch…
July 15: John Harold Rogers, a former senior adviser for the Federal Reserve Board of Governors (FRB), was sentenced to 38 months in federal prison in connection with making false statements to federal investigators about sharing restricted Federal Reserve information with 🇨🇳 intelligence operatives.
A federal jury deliberated for two days before finding Rogers guilty on Feb 3 of making false statements to government investigators at the Office of Inspector General for the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System and the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau.
In addition to the 38-month prison sentence, Judge Dabney Friedrich ordered Rogers to serve 12 months of supervised release. Federal prosecutors had requested a 60-month prison term.
Rogers is a US citizen who holds a PhD in economics.
Rogers served for decades as a Senior Advisor at the Federal Reserve Board of Governors, where he had access to restricted, nonpublic information about monetary policy and the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). From 2010 until 2021, Rogers worked as a senior adviser in FRB’s Division of International Finance where he was entrusted with confidential FRB information.
Beginning in 2017, Rogers developed a clandestine relationship with Hummin Lee, a Chinese intelligence operative, whom he met at a conference in China. Over the following years, Rogers met Lee and associates in hotel rooms in China under the guise of teaching academic “classes,” using the sessions to convey Federal Reserve information that Lee had specifically tasked him to collect.
Rogers printed restricted documents to bring on a trip to China, stripped classification markings from materials before emailing them to his personal account, and forwarded sensitive information to a professor at Fudan University, a Chinese state-run institution, days before meeting Lee. Rogers understood that Lee was writing reports for the Chinese government using the information he provided, and knew China could use advance knowledge of Federal Reserve interest rate decisions to generate enormous profits trading its roughly $1.5 trillion in US Treasury securities.
In exchange, Rogers received help with his new wife, university professorships, and substantial financial benefits from Lee and Chinese universities. He told investigators he “owed everything” to Hummin Lee.
About two months before leaving the Fed, Rogers signed a contract to teach at Fudan University. His contract offered a salary of around US$150,000 for one semester of teaching a year. He also received a $300,000 research grant, to be disbursed over three years, from a state-run research institution.
Rogers met a woman — Liu Yu — in Shanghai via a Chinese matchmaking service, and the couple married in Hong Kong in Mar 2018. By 2019, Rogers had brought his new wife and daughter to live with him in Washington. His wife has another daughter in China and continued to spend “significant time” there.
On Feb 4, 2020, Rogers agreed to be interviewed by investigators from the Federal Reserve’s Office of Inspector General. When asked directly whether he had ever shared restricted Federal Reserve information outside the Board, he answered: “Never.”
justice.gov/opa/pr/former-ad…
wsj.com/world/china/the-fed-…
"cockpit brawl"
I guess this is Roula Khalaf's FT
A Flydubai flight from Dubai to Tel Aviv has made an emergency landing in Saudi Arabia after the pilots were injured in an apparent cockpit brawl and the aircraft plunged almost 20,000ft in a matter of minutes ft.trib.al/wckrqrh
🤡
Iran was on its last legs and ready to collapse until the U.S. came along and gave it a life-line in the form of the Iran Deal: $150 billion
SK retweeted
I consider Eisenkot's rise in the opposition bloc a terrible development, an ominous testament to Israeli voters' immaturity.
Israel faces two long-term guaranteed challenges: the Israel-Palestinian conflict and Haredi integration. Iran is a significant challenge, but it's not guaranteed; the Iranian regime might fall in 5, 10 or 15 years, and if Israel muddles through until then, the problem might just sort itself out. But the I/P conflict and Haredi demographics won't go anywhere.
Eisenkot is a unique character in Israeli politics. There are very few people as closely associated with the much-derided "kontseptsiya" that collapsed on 7/10/23 as Eisenkot: he was Chief of Staff between 2015 and 2019, the final years of the "Pax Netanyahu" era. He presided over the hollowing out of the ground forces, and he was a true believer of the "smart and small army" and the illusion that the era of big wars was over.
But if this is not enough, Eisenkot is *also* more or less openly apathetic to the challenge of Haredi integration. He basically admitted that he would sit with them in the same coalition if that's ony way to oust Netanyahu. He doesn't really care about implementing any significant change to the existing (intolerable) status quo.
On a personal level, the upcoming election presents me with a painful choice. I consider the question of Haredi integration a burning, existential issue, and I know that if it's up to him, Netanyahu won't do anything about it. At the same time, I'm even more wary of trusting the country on a center-left coalition 2.5 years before a Democrat might retake the White House. In 2029, Israel's prime minister must be someone who will resist pressure to "revive the diplomatic process", and eventually agree to additional territorial concessions, at any cost. Someone who won't even blink at UNSC resolutions.
In light of the danger of a Democratic POTUS who smells blood and sees a center-left government as a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity to bully Israel into letting a Palestinian state come into existence, I consider another right-Haredi coalition the lesser evil. But I still understand voters who weigh their priorities differently and want the Haredi parties out of power at any cost. I hear where they are coming from.
But the fact that a third of the country wants someone to be the prime minister who is not only one of the chief architects of the discredited pre-Oct-7 security doctrine, but is also just as terrible about Haredi integration as Netanyahu, is a dark sign that we learned nothing from the past three years.
Preference for Prime Minister
🔵Netanyahu (Likud): 46%
🔴Eisenkot (Yashar): 32%
🔴Bennett (Together): 15%
via @Direct_Polls /i24, June 4
SK retweeted
Confirmed:
🚨 BREAKING NEWS: Israel Hayom reveals that hundreds of Hezbollah terrorists had begun advancing from southern Lebanon toward communities in northern Israel —in a pattern similar to October 7— in early March during the war with Iran, which led the Israeli army to launch a broad operation and eliminate all of them.
🚨 Cleared for publication:
At the first week of March, after Hizbullah got instructions from IRGC to restart attacking Israel - it made preparations to invade Israel northern villages along the border. IDF identified hundreds of Radwan force (Hizbulla elite commando unit) sneaking south of the Litani River in plain cloths, to pre planned weapns caches in private homes in south Lebanon. Many were eliminated from the air, but ground troops had to rush into Lebanon to engage them on the ground.
It turns out Northern Israel residents were in great jepordy - and this is why the goverment withheld this info until the signing of ceasefire.
SK retweeted
Professional money managers just made their biggest jump into stocks since August 2025.
The NAAIM Exposure Index surged back toward 100%, hitting a new 2026 high and signaling active managers are rapidly moving back toward fully invested positions. 👇
