10/26 OFFICIAL CARD 🔥
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MNF - GEORGE PICKENS OVER 59.5 RECEIVING YARDS
We're riding with Pickens tonight against Philadelphia. The recent production and matchup give us a solid opportunity.
- Recent Form: Pickens has cleared this line in 4 straight games, posting 82, 75, 130 and 73 receiving yards.
- Consistency: Averaging 80 receiving yards over his last 5 games, clearing 59.5 in 4 of those 5.
- Target Volume: Has recorded 11+ targets in 3 of his last 4 games. The opportunities are there.
- Opponent Matchup: Philadelphia is allowing 182.7 receiving yards per game to WRs, the 4th-most in the NFL.
- Head-to-Head: Pickens torched Philadelphia in their last meeting, finishing with 9 receptions for 146 yards and a touchdown.
Pickens is averaging 71.3 yards per game this season, and we're getting a 59.5 line against a defense that's struggled to contain opposing receivers.
The production, volume and matchup support the Over. Let's cash this one!
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LFG!! Cash it!! 🆓️
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NFL 🏈 Week 5 TNF Pick:
Cade Otton o0.5 1st Qtr Receiving Yards 🔥
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We're taking Bucs TE Cade Otton to clear 0.5 1st quarter receiving yards tonight against the Cowboys. He's cleared this line in 11 of his past 13 games and in all four games this season averaging 12.2 1st Qtr receiving yards in those games. He's also currently a -177 favorite to catch a pass in the 1st quarter on DraftKings, so I like his chances to clear 1 yard if he gets a catch.
It's also a positive matchup for Otton. The Cowboys have allowed the 14th most receiving yards per game (52.8) and 13th most receptions per game (5.5) to tight ends this season. They also play Cover 3 (36.1%) and Cover 4 (22.6%) at a combined 58.7% rate this season, and Otton averages a solid 1.59 yards per route run and .16 targets per route run against those coverages.
Previous TE's to face the Cowboys in the 1st Qtr:
Dalton Schultz: Line 5.5/Result 7 yards ✅
Mark Andrews: Line 6.5/Result 9 yards ✅
Ben Sinnott: Line 0.5/Result 6 yards ✅
Isaiah Likely: Line 0.5/Result 20 yards ✅
It should only take a single reception in the 1st quarter for Otton to easily surpass this 0.5 receiving yard line. I think he grabs a catch early tonight and clears this line.
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10/08 - TNF CARD 🔥
Brandon Aubrey o1.5 FG
Cade Otton 1st Qtr o0.5 Rec Yds
Buccaneers +9.5 Spread
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10/08 - TNF CARD 🔥
Brandon Aubrey o1.5 FG
Cade Otton 1st Qtr o0.5 Rec Yds
Buccaneers +9.5 Spread
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SBAPicks retweeted
NFL 🏈 Week 5 TNF Pick 3:
Cade Otton #WeAreTheKrewe
o0.5 1st Qtr Receiving Yards
(FanDuel -108)
Collab 🤝🏻 w/ @SBAPicks!
We're taking Bucs TE Cade Otton to clear 0.5 1st quarter receiving yards tonight against the Cowboys. He's cleared this line in 11 of his past 13 games and in all four games this season averaging 12.2 1st Qtr receiving yards in those games. He's also currently a -177 favorite to catch a pass in the 1st quarter on DraftKings, so I like his chances to clear 1 yard if he gets a catch.
It's also a positive matchup for Otton. The Cowboys have allowed the 14th most receiving yards per game (52.8) and 13th most receptions per game (5.5) to tight ends this season. They also play Cover 3 (36.1%) and Cover 4 (22.6%) at a combined 58.7% rate this season, and Otton averages a solid 1.59 yards per route run and .16 targets per route run against those coverages.
Previous TE's to face the Cowboys in the 1st Qtr:
Dalton Schultz: Line 5.5/Result 7 yards ✅
Mark Andrews: Line 6.5/Result 9 yards ✅
Ben Sinnott: Line 0.5/Result 6 yards ✅
Isaiah Likely: Line 0.5/Result 20 yards ✅
It should only take a single reception in the 1st quarter for Otton to easily surpass this 0.5 receiving yard line. I think he grabs a catch early tonight and clears this line.
❤️ Like, share, and follow if tailing!
NFL 🏈 Week 5 TNF Pick:
Cade Otton o0.5 1st Qtr Receiving Yards 🔥
Collab 🤝🏻 w/ @ThePropCPA
We're taking Bucs TE Cade Otton to clear 0.5 1st quarter receiving yards tonight against the Cowboys. He's cleared this line in 11 of his past 13 games and in all four games this season averaging 12.2 1st Qtr receiving yards in those games. He's also currently a -177 favorite to catch a pass in the 1st quarter on DraftKings, so I like his chances to clear 1 yard if he gets a catch.
It's also a positive matchup for Otton. The Cowboys have allowed the 14th most receiving yards per game (52.8) and 13th most receptions per game (5.5) to tight ends this season. They also play Cover 3 (36.1%) and Cover 4 (22.6%) at a combined 58.7% rate this season, and Otton averages a solid 1.59 yards per route run and .16 targets per route run against those coverages.
Previous TE's to face the Cowboys in the 1st Qtr:
Dalton Schultz: Line 5.5/Result 7 yards ✅
Mark Andrews: Line 6.5/Result 9 yards ✅
Ben Sinnott: Line 0.5/Result 6 yards ✅
Isaiah Likely: Line 0.5/Result 20 yards ✅
It should only take a single reception in the 1st quarter for Otton to easily surpass this 0.5 receiving yard line. I think he grabs a catch early tonight and clears this line.
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PrizePicks Promo Pair 🔥
BRANDON AUBREY OVER 1.5 FIELD GOALS 🔥
Dallas has been putting points on the board, and Aubrey has been getting plenty of opportunities. Tonight, we’re backing one of the NFL’s best kickers to deliver at home.
Aubrey has cleared 1.5 FGs in 3 of 4 games this season, including three straight.
11 field goal attempts over his last 3 games, converting 8 of them.
Tampa Bay has allowed opposing kickers to hit 2+ field goals in 3 of 4 games this season.
Opposing kickers have made 11 field goals against Tampa Bay, averaging 2.75 per game.
Aubrey went 4/4 on field goals in his last matchup against Tampa Bay, including makes from 58, 49, 58, and 53 yards.
Dallas is averaging 30.5 points per game, ranking among the NFL's highest-scoring offenses.
Tampa Bay ranks 4th in total defense, giving Dallas a legitimate chance to move the ball but face resistance finishing drives.
The opportunities have been there for Aubrey, and this matchup gives us good reason to expect more. Dallas just needs to give him the chances, and we're backing him to capitalize.
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PrizePicks free square pair 🔥
JUWAN JOHNSON O3.5 RECEPTIONS
Really like this spot for Juwan tonight. The role is there, the volume has been consistent, and Atlanta has been giving up production to tight ends. We only need 4+ catches.
•Johnson has 15 catches on 19 targets through 3 games this season - Averaging 5 receptions per game.
•He’s cleared 3.5 receptions in 8 of his last 10 games. His recent reception totals: 6, 5, 4, 4, 8, 4, 3, 3, 4, 8.
•He’s averaging roughly 6 targets per game over that stretch, giving him consistent opportunity to get to four catches.
•Atlanta ranks near the bottom of the league against the reception market and has already allowed multiple tight ends to clear their reception lines.
•Primary TE results against Atlanta include Pat Freiermuth 5 catches, Tucker Kraft 4, and Darren Waller 3.
•Atlanta has allowed 18 receptions to tight ends through 3 games, so the matchup fits exactly what we need.
•New Orleans has been throwing at a high rate, giving Johnson a strong overall target environment.
•Atlanta has been much tougher against the run, which should keep New Orleans leaning on the passing game.
•Noah Fant is also dealing with an abdominal injury. Johnson is playable either way, but any limitation or absence for Fant only helps his receiving opportunity.
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LFG!! 5-1 tonight Official Card 🔥 almost had that sweep!
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Brock Purdy o1.5 Passing Touchdowns 🔥
Brock Purdy has been dealing to start the year, and we’re backing him to keep it going with 2+ passing TDs against Denver.
•Purdy over 3/3 this line in 2026, throwing 3, 2 and 4 passing TDs in his first three games.
•Purdy has cleared Over 1.5 passing TDs in 7 of his last 10 games.
•He’s been efficient at home this season, throwing 2 TDs vs Miami and 4 TDs vs Arizona.
•Denver has already allowed 2 passing TDs to Patrick Mahomes and 2 to Matthew Stafford this season.
•San Francisco has been one of the best red-zone offenses in football, converting 90% of its red-zone trips into touchdowns through three games.
•Denver’s red-zone defense is the biggest challenge here, allowing touchdowns on only 45.5% of opponent red-zone trips, so this isn’t just a blind trend play.
•San Francisco enters this matchup with an expected scoring around 24–26 points, giving Purdy enough opportunities to get to two through the air.
•Purdy has also been kept clean behind his offensive line, zero sacks allowed through his first three starts, which gives him a better chance to finish drives.
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Just need CMC to bring it home 👀
$20 ➡️ $1,311
Jonathan Taylor ✅️
Derrick Henry ✅️
Will CMC get the first TD? 🤞
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NFL WEEK 4 OFFICIAL CARD 🔥
Brock Purdy o1.5 Pass TD
Bryce Young o1.5 Pass TD
Patrick Mahomes o1.5 Pass TD
Darren Waller o30.5 Rec Yards
Derrick Henry o0.5 ATD
Aaron Jones o0.5 ATD
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NFL WEEK 4 OFFICIAL CARD 🔥
Brock Purdy o1.5 Pass TD
Bryce Young o1.5 Pass TD
Patrick Mahomes o1.5 Pass TD
Darren Waller o30.5 Rec Yards
Derrick Henry o0.5 ATD
Aaron Jones o0.5 ATD
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Brock Purdy o1.5 Passing Touchdowns 🔥
Brock Purdy has been dealing to start the year, and we’re backing him to keep it going with 2+ passing TDs against Denver.
•Purdy over 3/3 this line in 2026, throwing 3, 2 and 4 passing TDs in his first three games.
•Purdy has cleared Over 1.5 passing TDs in 7 of his last 10 games.
•He’s been efficient at home this season, throwing 2 TDs vs Miami and 4 TDs vs Arizona.
•Denver has already allowed 2 passing TDs to Patrick Mahomes and 2 to Matthew Stafford this season.
•San Francisco has been one of the best red-zone offenses in football, converting 90% of its red-zone trips into touchdowns through three games.
•Denver’s red-zone defense is the biggest challenge here, allowing touchdowns on only 45.5% of opponent red-zone trips, so this isn’t just a blind trend play.
•San Francisco enters this matchup with an expected scoring around 24–26 points, giving Purdy enough opportunities to get to two through the air.
•Purdy has also been kept clean behind his offensive line, zero sacks allowed through his first three starts, which gives him a better chance to finish drives.
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POTD: CHRIS BOSWELL O1.5 FG
Boswell has been getting the opportunities, Cleveland has been giving kickers plenty of work, and his history in this matchup backs it up. We need 2 field goals tonight, and everything lines up for him to get there.
•Over L2/3 this season: 3,1,2
•Over L6/7 vs H2H
•Boswell has made 2+ field goals in 5 straight AFC North divisional games: 2, 2, 2, 2 and 3.
•Cleveland has allowed every opposing kicker this season to clear 1.5 field goal: 4, 4, 2
•Boswell is coming off 3 made field goals against Cincinnati, another AFC North game.
•Pittsburgh has had trouble finishing drives in the red zone, which keeps field-goal opportunities alive.
•Cleveland has been good enough defensively near the goal line to force teams to settle for kicks instead of touchdowns.
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PrizePicks Taco Slip 🔥
PAYTON TOLLE U4.5 HITS ALLOWED
•Tolle faced New York twice this season and allowed just 4 total hits across 13 innings. He gave up 3 hits in 6 innings in one start and just 1 hit in 7 innings in the other.
•His road profile has been strong, allowing roughly 6.5 H/9 away from home.
•Tolle has handled right-handed hitters well, holding them around a .211 batting average this season.
•His fastball and curveball have both been legit weapons, generating weak contact and misses.
•Yes, he allowed 8 hits in his last start, but that doesn’t outweigh how well this matchup specifically has gone for him against New York.
We need 5 hits to beat us. Tolle has seen this lineup twice and they’ve managed 4 total. The matchup and workload both point the same way.
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D’Andre Swift O13.5 Rushing Attempts
Swift doesn’t need a monster game tonight. We just need Chicago to keep giving him the workload they’ve already trusted him with. At 13.5, we’re asking for 14 carries and that number fits the role he’s had so far.
•Swift has 18 and 16 carries through his first two games this season, clearing 13.5 in both.
•Caleb Williams is out tonight, putting even more importance on Chicago leaning on its established rushing attack.
•Swift has 34 carries compared to Kyle Monangai’s 20. Monangai is involved, but Swift has remained the lead back.
•Recent RBs vs Philadelphia have gotten there: Jacory Croskey-Merritt had 16 carries and Tony Pollard had 14. Both cleared 13.5.
•Swift’s last three games against Philadelphia: 12, 15 and 18 carries
•The biggest risk is Chicago falling behind early and being forced away from the run, but we’ve already seen Swift maintain solid volume even when the offense struggled.
We only need 14. Swift has already seen 18 and 16 this season. Give him his normal workload and let’s cash it. 🍀🔥
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