@SacAppraiser

Appraiser, housing market analyst, graph maker, blogger, speaker, woodworker wannabe, and family man.

 Sacramento, CA
SacramentoAppraisalBlog.com
Joined October 2009
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“Buyer volume is the worst ever.” That’s been the narrative this week when talking about a national pending volume index by NAR. Is it the worst ever in Sacramento? Here are some stats and some thoughts.
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It’s important to distinguish between buyer demand and listings. Demand is extremely low today, but listings are nothing like 2007. There were about 12,000 more during September 2007. We are seeing some growth lately, and this has softened the market.
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In closing, it’s not the worst buyer volume ever technically. However, when we consider population growth through the decades, this is really bad today.
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Housing supply has been growing, and it has changed the temperature of the housing market. These aren’t historically high levels, but we are far removed from 2021 vibes, and the market is feeling it. I have eleven other counties in case anyone wants to see. Let me know.
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And here's housing supply since 1999. It's good to back up for perspective to recognize we are not at historic highs. Yet, it's also more challenging to see the trend right now if we zoom out too far since it was so extreme in 2007. My advice? Back up and zoom in. Do both.
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It's not that sellers are flooding the market. This is mostly about buyers backing off, which has helped the pile of actives listings grow.
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"We're going to wait until after the election." I had someone say that to me today when thinking about having a private appraisal done. I'm not sure why on their part. Are you encountering any waiting due to politics / elections when it comes to housing decisions?
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Sometimes people say stuff like, "Just wait until after the election is done." There is going to be a massive wave of pent-up demand. Meh. I don't think people en masse are on the sidelines due to politics. This is about affordability problems. Yet, do some wait? Some do.
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Here’s a look at active listings compared to sales in the city of West Sacramento. This is what most areas around the region look like from 1999 onward.
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Many people talk about higher prices driving the housing market right now, but that’s not the story we see when looking at the stats. We’ve seen the most growth under the median sales price. Yet, most price points have grown compared to one year ago.
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And some more stats. We are about 500 sales ahead of one year ago, but I expect that number to diminish for the rest of the year since buyer demand has suffered lately.
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Some friends got me this for my 50th birthday, and I couldn’t be happier. Print from a local artist named Nate Reifke.
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I got another $5 in the mail from this company wanting me to do a survey. Not going to do the survey, but thanks for the $5. This is the second time the survey request has come. They say they will give $20 for filling out the survey.
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Let’s zoom in for a closer view. 2.5 months of supply is still minimal, but I think the market gets frothy in Sacramento County at this level. People talk about five months being normal, but that’s not true in this county.
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This is why prices haven’t crashed. Supply has not built like it did during the Great Financial Crisis. We can’t expect 2007 results with 2026 stats. At the same time, supply has been building lately, and let’s not ignore some growth.
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Lots of people say it’s all cash driving the market, but that really isn’t the case. Here’s a look at financing and cash purchases through the years in the Sacramento region.
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October closed sales so far.
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Price discovery, demand destruction, and homes that are getting into contract. Yes, there are still buyers out there. Enjoy my weekly blog if you wish. Scroll by topic or digest slowly. I hope this is helpful. Any thoughts? sacramentoappraisalblog.com/…
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A new website launched recently. I'm not sure who is behind it, but the site pretends to advertise Dorothea Puente's boarding house in Sacramento (and it sells merch). If you didn't know, this lady is believed to have killed nine people. dorotheapuente.com/
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