@RyanPip_

Horse Racing Handicapper | Betting The Odds on @YouTube & @SubstackInc | Subscribe & get an eBook to help you handicap more consistently ↓

bettingtheodds.substack.com/p/start-here-see-what-other-bettors
Joined November 2020
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Ryan@RyanPip_Sep 30
🧵 How much can you really trust last year's Keeneland profile? The last two Fall Meets give us a pretty good reason to ask. In 2024, dirt sprint favorites won 44.3% of their races. In 2025, that dropped to 27.6%. What about how the track has played? That has evolved too ⬇️
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Three Days Into Week Two at Keeneland: • Early runners are 8-for-15 in dirt sprints. Posts 1-3 are struggling, with three wins this week. • 5 of the 6 dirt routes have been won by early runners. • Closers are controlling the turf. 3-for-5 in routes & 2-for-2 in the sprints
Ryan@RyanPip_Oct 7
🧵 Keeneland Fall Meet Track Profile Week One Posts 1-3 controlled the dirt racing over the first three days. On the turf, off-the-pace runners performed well, and early speed looks to be vulnerable. See where to focus your attention headed into week two in Lexington.
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Keeneland Friday Selections Sycamore Stakes
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Keeneland Thursday Selections
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Keeneland Wednesday Selections
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🧵 Keeneland Fall Meet Track Profile Week One Posts 1-3 controlled the dirt racing over the first three days. On the turf, off-the-pace runners performed well, and early speed looks to be vulnerable. See where to focus your attention headed into week two in Lexington.
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Turf Sprints Closers & posts 1-3 each went 2-for-4 over the first three days of racing. With more racing this week, watch both these groups first. If they continue to win, be ready to start to targeting them in your betting.
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Turf Routes Early runners are struggling in these races. Stalkers going 3-for-6 & closers chipping in two wins lines up with what this profile has shown the past two years. Also, same goes for posts 4-6. Over the last two Fall Meets they have the fewest wins of the post groups.
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🧵 Belmont Park Fall Meet Track Profile Week Three Posts 4-6 had a big week on the dirt: • 9 for 16 in dirt sprints • 5 for 7 in 1-turn dirt routes The other key when handicapping here is how the turf profiles are playing. Off-the-pace runners have controlled these races.
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Turf Trends Last Week at Belmont • Closers were 4-for-8 in turf routes • 4 of 8 inner turf sprints were won by closers • Inner turf routes saw closers go 2-for-2 Overall, closers are winning 47% of turf routes, 43% of inner turf sprints, & are 5-for-5 in inner turf routes.
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Two Questions To Ask This Week 1. Do closers continue to control the turf racing in week four? 2. Will posts 4-6 have another strong week on the dirt? They are winning 46% of dirt sprints & 44% of 1-turn dirt routes.
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Keeneland Sunday Selections Indian Summer, Spinster, & Bourbon Stakes
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Early Trends at Keeneland Through Two Days: • Posts 1-3 have won 6 of 10 dirt sprints. Early runners have just two wins. • Posts 7+ & stalkers are both 3-for-5 in turf routes • Posts 1-3 & early runners both are 2-for-4 in dirt routes
Ryan@RyanPip_Sep 30
🧵 How much can you really trust last year's Keeneland profile? The last two Fall Meets give us a pretty good reason to ask. In 2024, dirt sprint favorites won 44.3% of their races. In 2025, that dropped to 27.6%. What about how the track has played? That has evolved too ⬇️
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Barry Irwin says no BC for U. S. S. Valor
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Keeneland Saturday Selections Woodford, Club of America, First Lady, Breeders’ Futurity, & Turf Mile Stakes
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Keeneland Friday Selections Phoenix, Jessamine, & Alcibiades Stakes
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🧵 5 Things I'll Be Watching Closely Over The Keeneland Opening Weekend I’m not looking for a bias after three days, but for repeated evidence. If these patterns start showing up early, they become much more interesting when we start putting prices on them.
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4. Turf sprints This is probably the biggest question mark on the entire meet. In 2024, posts 1–3 accounted for 50% of the winners. In 2025, posts 7+ accounted for 40%. The profile flipped. With such a small sample, I’m watching before I start treating anything as a bias.
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5. Turf routes This is where I’m looking for confirmation rather than a major change. Favorites were profitable in the last two Keeneland Fall Meets. Early speed has struggled to win. Target off-the-pace horses. The turf route profile has been much more stable than turf sprints
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