Rooster Odds: 2026 forecast built on real polls, not hopes. America First, Rust Belt raised. First to news, first in the replies. Polls don't vote, people do.
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Rooster Odds evening update (Oct. 25), with 14 new polls blended in:
Senate: R 46.0% / D 50.1%
House: R 5.7% (194 seats)
Both chambers: R 4.2%
Texas Senate and Ohio's 9th District are dead even.
Polls don't vote, people do. 🐓
DSA's national leaders are weighing whether to dump Nithya Raman, their own pick for LA mayor, because she doesn't back the Israel boycott movement. In other words, the socialists think she isn't radical enough, eight days out.
It was the War Department from Washington until 1949. The House already voted to bring the name back, and Senate Armed Services backed it too. Congress needs to finish the job.
Pentagon presses Congress to keep measure changing name to Department of War
thehill.com/policy/defense/6…
Only 6% of Democrats told Gallup the country needs patriotism, dead last of 12 values, and Gallup defined it as simply caring about your country. That's the party asking for the House gavel in eight days.
#NEW WISCONSIN absentee ballots
Returned: 441,141 [+64.1K since Friday]
In-person: 200,338 [+51.4K]
Requested: 588,504
In-person early votes just passed 200K.
Data: WI Elections Commission
#NEW MICHIGAN early vote
Ballots cast: 1,213,422 [+174.1K since Saturday]
📬 Absentee: 1,074,736
🗳️ Early in-person: 138,686 [was 4,147]
That's 16.4% of active voters. The first early-voting weekend did the heavy lifting.
Data: Michigan SOS, via CBS Detroit
If Democrats take the House, Jeffries says they’ll go after Pete Hegseth if Trump doesn’t push him out first. That’s what the next two years look like with them holding the gavel. Vote accordingly.
Jeffries: Democrats will deal with Hegseth if Trump doesn’t
thehill.com/homenews/house/6…
Violent crime fell 25% from 2024 to 2025 in the Justice Department's own victim survey, the biggest drop in the survey's 50-plus years. It asks over 100,000 households directly, so it catches the crimes that never get reported to police.
Violent crime saw biggest-ever drop in 2025 in victims survey
washingtontimes.com/news/202…
Obama is in a new ad asking Marylanders to vote yes on a ballot question that would let state Democrats draw a new congressional map for the next cycle. Maryland already sends seven Democrats and one Republican to the House. Read that question before you vote.
Former President Barack Obama urges Marylanders in a new ad to vote in favor of a ballot question that would allow state Democrats to draw a new congressional map for the next election cycle. nbcnews.com/politics/2026-el…
Jane Fonda's Climate PAC has raised $8 million and still has $5 million in the bank with eight days to go. Checks are going to competitive House races in Pennsylvania and North Carolina, plus Annie Andrews in South Carolina and Peggy Flanagan in Minnesota. Worth knowing who's paying for those ads.
Jane Fonda’s Climate PAC Pours Millions into Socialist Candidates Ahead of Midterms trib.al/ACw1MiB
What slipped past the cameras this week:
Detroit woman gets 18 months for $2.5M in student aid for 80+ fake college students.
Columbus doctor pleads guilty to 27,000 fake Medicaid telehealth claims.
El Paso man gets 51 months for an 11-year, $3.1M NBA game Ponzi scheme.
Obama came to Detroit to rally for Abdul El-Sayed, and a day later Haley Stevens still wouldn't tell CNN she supports him. If the woman he beat in the primary won't vouch for him, Michigan shouldn't either.
Chiricahua National Monument in southeast Arizona is now Chiricahua National Park, the country's 64th. Those rock spires out there are truly something else. Good to see a president actually putting money and attention into our parks.
Browns fell behind 14-0 in Nashville and won it on the last snap, again. Remember that on election night when Ohio counts the early vote first and Democrats jump out ahead.
Trump comes to Chillicothe, Ohio on Wednesday, then Dubuque, Iowa next Sunday. Two Midwest stops in the final stretch before Election Day.
This week, President Donald J. Trump will visit:
MONDAY (10/26): Corinth, Mississippi
TUESDAY (10/27): Corpus Christi, Texas
TUESDAY (10/27): Lubbock, Texas
WEDNESDAY (10/28): Chillicothe, Ohio
FRIDAY (10/30): Daytona, Florida
SUNDAY (11/1): Dubuque, Iowa
Vice President JD Vance will visit:
MONDAY (10/26): Belgrade, Montana
MONDAY (10/26): Topeka, Kansas
TUESDAY (10/27): Howell, Michigan
MORE TO COME... 👀
Iran's Revolutionary Guard wrote a 25-page letter begging American voters to change the Trump administration at the ballot box. When the IRGC is that desperate for you to vote one way, you already know which way to vote.
Former Illinois Democratic Gov. Rod Blagojevich is now telling Americans to vote Republican. He says his old party “has been hijacked by socialists.” Who would’ve thought?
Ex-con former Dem Ill. Gov. Rod Blagojevich urges America to vote Republican: 'Democratic Party has been hijacked by socialists' trib.al/6J1wCRa
Obama told Detroit that Abdul El-Sayed would "finish the job" on Obamacare. Sixteen years in, the average family's job-based premium just hit $28,303. How much more finishing can Michigan take?
Dr. Oz says CMS has already stopped $50 billion in fraud from leaving Medicare and Medicaid, and that alone could double the life of the Medicare trust fund. That's money that belongs to seniors, not scammers.
.@DrOzCMS on fraud: "We've already stopped $50B from leaving Medicare or Medicaid — just that alone could double the life of the Medicare Trust Fund."
#NEW MICHIGAN early vote
Detroit, first day of in-person early voting:
2026: 2,305
2024: 1,897
[+21.5%]
Detroit is showing up. Rest of Michigan, your move.
Data: Detroit city officials via CBS Detroit