Security analysis Posts are NFA, DYOR
Joined February 2014
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Ruslan*Dv retweeted
Today, Grass announced that it is rewarding network participants in USDC instead of its native token. Grass reached profitability near the end of last year, and is now in the unusual position of being able to compensate contributors directly from the revenue the network generates.
To me, this represents an important milestone. A network should eventually graduate from subsidized growth to a self-sustaining economy. Token incentives are a powerful tool for bootstrapping supply, but they should not become a permanent substitute for real demand.
The end state was never "pay people with tokens forever." The end state is a business with customers, cash flow, and a network whose participants are compensated because the underlying service creates real economic value.
We're still early in that journey, and there's an enormous amount of work ahead of us. But today feels like an important step, and it makes me incredibly excited for what's next.
Ruslan*Dv retweeted
Compute → Data → Models → Applications.
Data is the layer everyone overlooks. @okx explains why Grass sits right at that intersection.
okx.com/learn/what-is-grass-…
Ruslan*Dv retweeted
🚨Michael Burry says Nvidia has 3 big customers and if they stop buying the whole thing is over.
Those 3 customers now account for 64% of Nvidia's entire accounts receivable.
In 2020 that number was 33%. It jumped 8 percentage points in a single quarter.
Nvidia's revenue is not spread across a broad market. It is almost entirely dependent on a handful of buyers.
Burry's argument is about why those buyers may slow down or stop entirely.
He calls it the "bezzle." The bezzle is not that AI is fake. It is that a massive portion of current AI spending is coming from companies that are benchmarking models, testing systems, and competing on AI leaderboards.
That activity is temporary. It will end. But it is being counted and financed today as if it is permanent growing demand.
He says: "They are just flying empty airplanes around."
When that benchmarking phase ends those 3 concentrated customers have far less reason to keep ordering chips at the current pace.
And because Nvidia's revenue is this concentrated even a partial slowdown from those buyers creates a massive hole in its numbers.
Now here is where it gets more alarming.
Microsoft, Amazon, Alphabet, Meta, and Oracle together have $662 billion in off balance sheet AI commitments according to Moody's.
Standard accounting rules allow companies to keep this completely hidden from their reported numbers.
To fund this infrastructure private equity firms have been buying life insurance companies.
But why?
A PE firm owns illiquid investments that need financing. It buys an insurance company which collects premiums from ordinary policyholders. That insurance company then invests those premiums into the PE firm's own illiquid assets.
The PE firm then sets up a captive reinsurer in Bermuda with lighter capital requirements and pushes the insurance risk onto that offshore balance sheet.
Burry's point is that all of this is connected. The same PE firms own the insurance companies funding the AI debt. The same Bermuda structures hold the risk.
If any major hyperscaler walks away from a data center commitment everything hits at the same time because every counterparty in the chain is linked to the same underlying assets.
The AI boom is being measured during the most artificial phase of the buildout.
Nobody knows what real demand looks like when the benchmarking phase is over and $662 billion in hidden commitments needs to be serviced.
Ruslan*Dv retweeted
The network is more reliable than it's ever been as our success rates and core performance metrics have increased across the board.
This is a result of improvements to our detection and filtering capabilities that remove bots, bad actors, and low quality nodes from the network. Our efforts to prevent bad actors from gaming the system have led to stronger and more sustainable network performance.
Our goal has always been simple: reward real users who support the network with bandwidth that the network can actually use.
Real rewards for real users.
Ruslan*Dv retweeted
The UAE just left OPEC after 60 years.
Here’s what nobody is explaining.
They spent $3.3 billion building the Habshan–Fujairah pipeline specifically to bypass the Strait of Hormuz.
406 kilometers of pipeline running from Abu Dhabi’s oil fields directly to the Gulf of Oman.
Iran’s blockade doesn’t touch it.
Inside OPEC their production was capped at 3.41 million barrels per day.
That cap is gone as of May 1.
They are now free to pump as much as they want and route it around the entire Iran conflict.
Brent dropped immediately after the announcement.
The market understood before most people even read the headline.
The UAE didn’t just leave a cartel.
They positioned themselves to break the oil shock that’s been running since February.
Big win for the UAE.
If you want to know where WE are deploying capital next, turn on post notifications this is very important.
Many people will wish they followed us sooner.
Ruslan*Dv retweeted
🚨 CHINA IS COLLAPSING
China’s real estate just hit its lowest level since 2005.
The index peaked at 114 in 2021 and sits at 86 today.
That is a 25% collapse in four years.
Real estate was 25% of China’s entire GDP and 70% of household wealth was tied to property.
That wealth is being permanently destroyed.
Local governments funded themselves through land sales for decades.
That revenue is gone and local government debt now stands at $18.9 trillion.
Two thirds of new borrowing is being used just to service old debt.
80 million homes are sitting empty with no buyer in sight.
Evergrande collapsed under $300 billion in liabilities and got liquidated.
China Vanke is fighting to avoid the same outcome.
Beijing has officially declared the old model dead: high debt, high leverage, high turnover, buried without a replacement ready.
This is not a housing correction.
This is the largest ongoing wealth destruction event in the world right now and Western markets are not pricing any of it in.
The second order effects haven’t even started.
I’ll make another post later and trust me, you don’t want to miss it. Turn on notifications, this is important.
A lot of people will regret not following me.
Ruslan*Dv retweeted
SAM BANKMAN FRIED PICKED EVERY WINNER OF THE 2020s AND HIS LAWYERS SOLD THEM ALL AT THE BOTTOM.
If the FTX estate hadn't panic-sold its assets during bankruptcy, SBF would be sitting on a $114 billion empire today. Instead, he is watching the greatest trades of the decade from a prison cell.
The data is almost impossible to believe:
- Anthropic: $82.3 billion (165x) SBF bought an 8% stake for $500M. The estate sold it for $1.3B in 2024. Today, that stake would be worth over $80B.
- SpaceX:$15 billion (75x) A massive stake liquidated early to pay creditors.
- Solana: $5.1 billion (27x) SBF was an early backer at $8. The estate offloaded a massive chunk at $64.
- Robinhood: $4.9 billion (8x)
- Genesis Digital: $3.5 billion (3x)
The Latest "Missed" Fortune: CURSOR
In 2022, Alameda Research wrote a tiny $200,000 check for a 5% stake in the AI startup Cursor. In April 2023, the bankruptcy estate sold that entire stake back for exactly what they paid: $200,000.
Yesterday, SpaceX announced a deal to buy Cursor for $60 billion.
That "worthless" 5% stake would be worth $3 billion today. That is a 15,000x return that vanished because the lawyers wanted a quick exit.
SBF was a genius at picking generational winners and a criminal at managing their money.
The lawyers recovered $18 billion for users. If they had just held, they would be sitting on $114 billion and the most valuable venture portfolio in history.
Tencent ivested in Kaspi kz
Tencent, Mikhail Lomtadze, top management and long-term institutional investors completed purchase of 6 mln ADR of Kaspi kz
It comprises around 3,15% of total supply
On my threads page:
1) I set 1st goal to buy in range 33-37k KZT
Ruslan*Dv retweeted
Ray Dalio on how to prevent another American civil war.
(0:00) The Cycle of Civilizations
(07:15) How Democracies Break Down and Turn Authoritarian
(18:10) The Dollar, Debt and the End of Monetary Trust
(26:53) Why Gold Always Survives System Failure
(38:15) What Will the Price of Gold Be In 5 Years?
(40:34) How America Can Avoid Crisis Before It's Too Late
(46:09) The Difference Between Wealth and Money
(52:00) Can American Democracy Survive?
(53:17) Should We Worry About Civil War?
(55:26) Who Actually Controls the Money?
(58:11) What Happens if the Government Issued Digital Currency?
(1:00:48) Actions Everyone Should Take Right Now to Protect Their Future
Ruslan*Dv retweeted
reasons why crypto is down:
1. On chain stocks and bonds have not resulted in material fee capture for any major L1 protocol. Arbitrum pumped on Robinhood announcement only for Robinhood to build its own inhouse solution. Temporary Nasdaq on-chain trading pump then it turns out they're using private blockchains. SOL doing $1m a day of fees down from $24m Trump coin frenzy and $15m+ of inflation.
2. high inflation and primary equity story is international equities, gold, and AI. crypto is not getting enough attention
3. Trump promised mass deportation, less international engagement, low inflation. seems we are 0/3. With no Trump USD stablecoins and regulatory progress could reverse. Crypto is seen as Trump proxy. when Trump won EURUSD collapsed and BTC went bid. now EURUSD is surging while BTC is down
4. Gold / silver have captured 'sovereign diversification'. Russia appears to have successfully use gold to thwart US sanctions after invading Ukraine. Despite the fact it could have used crypto (it did not). Now China is looking at Gold as a good reserve asset if it chooses to invade Taiwan
5. "Digital Gold" story does not work if Gold is up only and AI is up only while coins are down only. Thus - people no longer believe. At the same time there are high valuations and relatively high network inflation
6. There has yet to have been material evidence of AI <> crypto inter-relation. Bittensor if anything by becoming more credibly non political is allowing subnets to do anything (not just AI related). Coin is dead. Narrative of AI agents doing things with crypto so far has not come to pass.
7. DATs, and MSTR buying at high prices are a double edged sword. As DATs drop below MNAV activists are incentivized to take stakes in DATs and sell the underlying tokens to drive shareholder value. In current market conditions this would be catastrophic
8. Maybe quantum fears - but I think we are memeing ourselves about that far more than ppl are actually trading on this
I think it's important to understand these things. The market put on a huge bet that the system and crypto would mesh. That bet has imploded. It is not pretty. I got some things right and many things wrong. I am not planning on leaving the industry or pivoting to gold mining.
Reasons to be excited about Crypto on a go-forward
1. People are not thinking through what a fully multi polar world looks like given current debt levels combined with CBDCs. base case is mass financial repression and wealth taxes targeted at individuals. Individuals cannot easily
2. There are only 100-200k researchers and engineers in the global AI industry. Unlike previous industrial revolutions - the growth in AI will not cause mass employment. It will instead cause mass unemployment. This will only accelerate confiscatory impulses and also put pressure on global central banks to ease (bullish fixed supply assets). AI itself will be effectively leveraged to track physical locations ala China making it difficult for individuals to effectively custody gold
3. Nation states may not get along but all of them will want to tax citizens
4. The original BTC run was Chinese high net worth individuals. We have a mental model of what this looks like. More repression. More capital controls. That's how BTC went from $100 -> $80k to begin with.
5. Unlike the original BTC run privacy technology has advanced considerably. ZK transactions are 20x cheaper than they were in 2021. Halo2 / Z cash have made substantive technical progress. Railgun is responsive to TornadoCash rulings and there are increasingly legal frameworks for privacy.
6. AI is fundamentally compression technology. Models are getting smaller. Open Source (like Kimi K2.5) is pretty solid and will remain subsidized by China indefinitely which is treating open Source AI development a bit like free marketing for CCP ideals. There will reach a threshold when there are models that are smarter than ppl that run on local hardware. This makes society portable in a way that was previously unimaginable.
7. The technical selling has 2 sources:
a. DAT overhangs, which are reflexive and can expand to buying pressure if the market turns around
b. Bloated teams, which should structurally be able to be cut due to AI coding
8. Re: quantum I think AI coding will also accelerate the speed at which some protocols become quantum resistant, and I imagine this will be faster than traditional websites. There are some undeniably scary 'quantum internet' bear cases out there but I think we're way too early for that
Put another way: sovereign individuals were never really believable before "vibe coding". Because you'd need an army of employees. Who need national services. The economic viability of small scale technological economies is skyrocketing. And therefore even if traditional equities or bonds don't end up on public blockchains imminently there is still believably going to be substantial post-national on-chain volume. But it is coming at a lag vs market expectations, resulting in massive financial destruction
Binance, Hyperliquid and Tron remain successful decade long experiments in - what are essentially equity like assets that exist completely outside of traditional jurisdiction or reporting requirements. It is fundamentally viable to run on-chain businesses, and will become more appealing over time bc of how messed up our world is
I don't want to pretend that the current market condition is good or that "I Called it". or something. I am trying to make sense of it. If I had to sum it up "anti or post nation state assets bet the ranch on nation states and got screwed". Anarcho capitalists shocked their government partnership didn't work out. Makes sense in hindsight doesn't it.
One year and three months of preparation and a 64 points (passing score: 50) on the first attempt in the final ACCA exam - Strategic Business Leader.
It turns out I got my results at 5 a.m. yesterday morning, I saw only in the evening.
Ruslan*Dv retweeted
What is the ultimate luxury status symbol? Once upon a time it may have been a sports car or a flashy watch.
But with soaring costs of living, perhaps the most serious flex of wealth is something once considered a natural part of life: having kids on.ft.com/4q0lDzD
