If you'd like to learn about the current state of the East Bay from a real estate development company with 40+ years of experience, check out the latest episode of the podcast. The guests were John Protopappas and Cameron Corwin with Madison Park. Our conversation covered many topics, including: - Getting started in the CRE industry - The current real estate cycle versus prior ones - Market statistics highlighting the current recovery underway - East Bay fundamentals and demand drivers - The future of the East Bay - Their strategic investment focus You can find the episode by searching for "Recap with Brandon Roth" on Apple or Spotify.

Stabilized Debt Yield is a lender's break-even stabilized cap rate. It tells a lender how much cap rates can rise before the building's value no longer covers the loan amount. This is why debt yield sizing metrics vary by market. For example, sizing to a 7% stabilized debt yield would equate to 71% LTV in a 5-cap market and 86% LTV in a 6-cap market. The biggest underwriting change post-rate hike has been wider stabilized debt yields to account for potentially higher cap rates over the next 1 to 3 years.

Today's Fed rate decision will be announced at 11am PT / 2pm ET. The market is currently projecting a 93% probability that there's a 25-bp rate hike. One other place this probability shows up is with 1-Month Term SOFR. We simplify loan pricing by saying "SOFR + 2.50%", but the reality is almost every lender is using 1-Month Term SOFR which is based on futures contracts and reflects market expectations for SOFR over the coming month. For most of 2026, overnight SOFR and 1-Month Term SOFR tracked in the 3.60s. However, these rates started to diverge at the beginning of September when the market began repricing the probability of a Fed rate hike on September 16th (today). 1-Month Term SOFR has already increased 25 bps to 3.89% this morning, while overnight SOFR is still 3.64%. For those that have floating rate agency loans, it's worth noting that the agencies do not use 1-Month Term SOFR, but 30-day Average SOFR which is backwards looking. So the impact of today's hike will be reflected gradually in your interest expense over the following 30 days, rather than immediately.

I feel like a broken record writing about how closely the 5-year Treasury has been tracking oil prices lately, so I created a chart to highlight the relationship. This is happening because investors believe higher oil prices will lead to higher inflation, which makes the Fed more likely to respond by raising short-term rates. And vice versa.

The latest podcast episode is available for download. The guest is the CEO & Founder of PACE Loan Group - Rafi Golberstein. Our conversation answers many questions, including: - How did Rafi get started in CRE and what was his path to eventually starting PLG? - What is C-PACE and how has it evolved over the past 10 years? - What are the sizing constraints? - What are the typical terms today? (pricing, prepayment, etc.) - What are the most common deal/asset types they're financing? - Where is the C-PACE industry going over the next 12 months? - How does the decision-making process work at PLG? You can listen to the episode on Apple or Spotify - thank you!

I had a great conversation with the CEO of Genesis Capital. The company is one of the top construction lenders in the country and is on pace to close ~$6.5 billion in loan volume this year. You can check it out by searching for "Recap with Brandon Roth" on Apple or Spotify.

Over the past few days, lenders shared 72 quotes they issued in April and I aggregated the data into a filterable table. The example below shows the construction financing quotes that were received. I'll share a download link for the full Excel table in Monday's newsletter.

This week JV equity investors shared 29 deals they closed in Q1. I'll share an overview in Monday's capital markets newsletter. If you're interested in joining, you can subscribe using the link on my profile.

Don't shoot the messenger, but it's important to be aware that the forward SOFR curve has meaningfully shifted over the past week. The market is now projecting 1-month Term SOFR to end the year at 3.48%, which is 19 bps higher than last week. The likelihood the Fed holds rates unchanged through the end of July has increased from 18% a month ago to 62% today. This is largely being driven by rising oil prices and concerns about inflation. Just an anecdote, but gas is $6+ in my town.

When working on bridge or construction deals where you're projecting a future stabilized LTV, I recommend creating a matrix showing the range of potential outcomes based on various rents and cap rates. The reality is the future is uncertain, and it's far easier for lenders to get comfortable if they can see they're still protected in a downside scenario. If it'd be helpful to see a video showing how to create this in Excel, please let me know and I'll pull it together.

When a business owes you funds but they can't find you for a long time, they transfer those funds to the state, which holds them as a custodian until the rightful owner claims them. This can include: - Utility refunds or deposits - Uncashed checks - Old bank accounts - Overpayments I just checked the database and had 4 claims dating back 10-20 years that totaled to $400+. I checked for each of my family members and they all had $200+. My sister had $970. The database is managed by the National Association of State Treasurers and you can check it out at missingmoney.com. It's a bit of a hokey name that sounds like a scam, but it's legit. After you claim the various accounts that are yours, you receive an email from your state government with an official form to submit to get the cash. Good luck! P.S. Even if you don't care about this for yourself, check for your friends and family - especially the ones not quite as tech-savvy as you.